USDA Reports Influence Market Trends: Corn, Soybean, and Barley Planting Intentions Analyzed

Chicago Board of Trade Market News

The lack of fresh fundamental market news contributed to the choppiness in the market in the early part of the week. On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its quarterly stocks report. March corn stocks were estimated at 8.347 billion bushels, up 12.9% from a year ago. This was 80 million bushels less than the average trade estimate for March 1 corn stocks, at 8.427 billion bushels, but still represents a five-year high. For wheat, the USDA March stocks were 1.087 billion bushels, up 16% from a year ago and 43 million bushels higher than the average trade estimate of 1.044 billion bushels and represents a 3-year high for March wheat stocks. For barley, March stocks in all positions were estimated at 112 million bushels, 20% higher than a year ago. For soybeans, USDA’s estimate of March stocks was 1.845 billion bushels, up 9.4% from a year ago and 17 million bushels higher than the trade expectations prior to the report.

The U.S. planting intentions report was also released on Thursday, March 28th. Corn planting intentions are estimated at 90.36 million acres, down 4.87% from a year ago and below the trade’s average pre-report estimate of 91.77 million acres. Soybean planting intentions were 86.51 million acres, up 3.48% from a year ago and in line with trade expectations.

For 2024, 37.8% of corn acres are expected to be east of the Mississippi River and 62.2% of corn acres are expected to be west of the Mississippi River. States east of the Mississippi River are expected to see a 5.2% drop in planted corn acres, on average with the primary states dropping 2.68% (IL) to 8.33% (OH).

Corn planting is expected to decline significantly across the country this year.

• Farmers east of the Mississippi River are expected to plant 1.8 million fewer acres of corn compared to last year.
• The bigger drop is expected west of the Mississippi, where corn acreage could fall by 2.8 million acres, from 58.79 million acres to 56.01 million acres  (a decrease of 5.7%).
• Missouri is likely to see the sharpest decline in the west (9%), followed by Minnesota (8%), North Dakota (6%), and South Dakota (5%).
• Even Iowa, the nation’s top corn producer, is expected to plant slightly less corn this year (2% decrease).
• This unexpected drop in corn planting, particularly in the Upper Midwest (west of the Mississippi), is likely due to low corn prices and high operating costs. As a result, farmers might be switching to a more affordable crop, like soybeans.

Producers indicate they intend to plant 86.51 million acres to soybeans in 2024, up 2.91 million acres (3.48%) from last year. Of those farmers who plan to shift acres, 59% of respondents will increase soybean plantings. Soybean plantings are expected to broadly increase in the Corn Belt, with every state in the Midwest, except Kansas, showing an increase in soybean acres. With high cattle prices, Kansas is expected to drop corn, soybean, and wheat acreage with an increase in land devoted to cattle production.

Planting intentions for barley are 2.566 million acres, down 17% from a year ago. Major reductions are expected for the two largest barley states, Montana (-240,000 acres) and North Dakota (-220,000 acres).

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