Dried guava export prices from Vietnam are flat week‑on‑week at around EUR 4.80/kg FOB Hanoi, with no sign of immediate upward pressure despite weaker national fruit and vegetable exports in January.
Export demand for Vietnamese fruit and vegetables has softened at the start of 2026, but dried guava prices in Hanoi remain surprisingly stable, supported by manageable stocks and steady niche demand. Weather in northern Vietnam is seasonally mild with no short‑term threats to guava orchards, and logistics are operating normally after last year’s flood disruptions. In the very near term, the market looks balanced: buyers have the upper hand on negotiations, but sellers are under no pressure to discount aggressively.
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Guava dried
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FOB 5.25 €/kg
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📈 Prices & Recent Moves
Hanoi offers for Vietnamese dried white guava (FOB) are holding at about EUR 4.80/kg, unchanged over the past four weeks. This follows a modest rise from roughly EUR 4.75/kg in late February, after which prices have stagnated. The lack of volatility reflects a tight but not squeezed balance between export inquiries and available processed stocks, with most packers working on existing contracts rather than competing for spot business.
| Product | Origin | Location / Term | Spot level (EUR/kg) | WoW change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dried guava, white | Vietnam (VN) | Hanoi, FOB | ≈ 4.80 | 0% |
🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Context
Vietnam’s broad fruit and vegetable exports fell by about 18–19% in January 2026 versus December, with shipments to China down more than a quarter, signalling weaker near‑term demand in the sector overall. While this data aggregates many products, including fresh produce, it sets a softer demand tone for processed fruits such as dried guava.
At the same time, Vietnam’s overall export engine remains robust, illustrated by strong January coffee export growth of around 14% month‑on‑month. This suggests macro conditions and logistics are functioning normally, so the softness in fruit exports is mainly demand‑driven rather than operational. For dried guava, buyers in key Asian and EU markets appear well covered in the short term, limiting their urgency to bid up prices.
🌦 Weather & Crop Conditions (VN)
Following the severe floods in northern Vietnam during September–October 2025, which caused widespread crop damage, infrastructure and farming have gradually normalized. Entering late March 2026, conditions in the Hanoi and Red River Delta area are seasonally mild and relatively dry, with no acute flooding or storm threats reported over the coming days.
Such stable weather is supportive for flowering and fruit‑set in guava orchards around northern Vietnam, limiting near‑term supply risk. With no major temperature or rainfall anomalies expected in the next three days, orchards and processing plants should operate without disruption, reinforcing the current steady price environment.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Structure
Dried guava is a niche within Vietnam’s broader fruit complex, where larger categories like bananas, dragon fruit and other tropicals dominate export statistics. National fruit and vegetable trade data therefore tend to drive sentiment more than direct guava balances. The January export dip has made international buyers more cautious, lengthening tender processes and encouraging shorter tenors and smaller lot sizes in some specialty fruits.
Nevertheless, the absence of logistics bottlenecks, combined with stable weather and moderate processing capacity utilisation, keeps supply dependable. Processors’ cost structures are relatively fixed in the short run, so with no surge in raw fruit prices and only modest energy and labour cost pressures, there is limited incentive to either discount heavily or push for higher offers this week.
📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas
- Price bias (3–7 days): Sideways to slightly soft; any moves are likely contained within ±1–2% of current FOB levels as demand remains subdued but stable.
- For buyers: Consider gradually building cover for Q2 at current levels, prioritising quality and supplier reliability rather than waiting for significantly lower prices that may not materialise without a clearer demand shock.
- For sellers: Focus on securing medium‑term contracts and differentiating on certifications and traceability; avoid aggressive price hikes in the near term, as macro fruit export data favours buyers in negotiations.
- Risk watch: Monitor any early‑season storm developments or renewed flooding signals in northern Vietnam, which could quickly shift sentiment bullish if orchard or transport infrastructure is threatened.
📍 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (VN)
- Hanoi FOB dried guava (EUR/kg): Expected to hold around EUR 4.80 from 23–25 March, with a narrow range of roughly EUR 4.75–4.85 as baseline scenario.
- Domestic sentiment (northern VN): Stable; processors report routine operations with no weather‑related disruptions anticipated in the next three days.
