Vietnam Rice Exports Lose Momentum as Prices Soften and Demand Shifts

Vietnam’s rice export market is moving into a softer phase, with volumes down 6.1% and export earnings falling 10.9% in January–September 2026 as weaker global demand weighs on prices. Strong import growth from China and Iraq is cushioning the downturn but not fully offsetting reduced purchases from key buyers such as the Philippines. Rice market sentiment is currently shaped by falling FOB quotations, cautious overseas buying and a visible shift in Vietnam’s destination mix. Average export prices declined 5.1% year on year to $484.8/t, and 5% broken rice slipped to $420–430/t FOB as of 1 October. At the same time, domestic Vietnamese and Indian quotations in EUR show only modest week-on-week changes, suggesting that exporters are absorbing much of the pressure through margins. Market participants now face a dual challenge: protecting price levels while managing growing dependence on a few Asian buyers.

Prices

Vietnam’s average rice export price in January–September 2026 fell 5.1% year on year to $484.8 per tonne as international buyers resisted higher offers amid ample regional supply. As of October 1, Vietnam 5% broken was quoted at $420–430/t FOB, down from around $430/t a week earlier, confirming a mild but persistent downward trend in benchmark export prices. Weak spot demand means traders report limited ability to raise offers despite relatively tight domestic supplies.  

FOB quotations in EUR from key origins indicate only slight week-on-week movements rather than a sharp sell-off. In Vietnam, long white 5% is indicated at EUR 0.33/kg FOB Hanoi, up from EUR 0.32/kg in late September. Premium Vietnamese specialties such as Jasmine (EUR 0.35/kg) and Japonica (EUR 0.45/kg) also show marginal gains, while black rice is quoted at EUR 0.86/kg. In India, FOB New Delhi prices for parboiled and basmati segments have firmed modestly, with 1121 steam at EUR 0.72/kg, 1509 steam at EUR 0.66/kg and organic white basmati at EUR 1.56/kg. This pattern underscores that the main price weakness is concentrated in standard export segments priced in USD, not in the higher-value or specialty lines.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam shipped around 6.4 million tonnes of rice worth $3.11 billion in January–September 2026. Compared with the same period in 2025, export volume declined 6.1%, while export value dropped a sharper 10.9%, highlighting how lower prices amplified the impact of volume losses. Despite this, Vietnam remains one of the most competitive origins among major exporters, with steady domestic paddy availability and relatively stable internal prices.

The Philippines is still Vietnam’s largest buyer, taking approximately 40.9% of exports, but its import value from Vietnam fell 16.8% year on year. China has become the clear second-largest outlet with a 17.4% share and a striking 76% increase in import value, driven partly by stronger demand for broken rice and other industrial-use segments. Ghana holds a 12.7% share, with only a slight 1.1% decline in value. Iraq stands out as the fastest-growing market, with Vietnamese rice export value increasing nearly 99-fold, signaling a structural diversification opportunity despite the overall demand slowdown.

Fundamentals

The export data underline a market where price pressure stems more from subdued global buying interest than from excess Vietnamese supply. International buyers are cautious amid broader macroeconomic uncertainty and comfortable stocks, especially in Asia. Even with limited domestic supply in the Mekong Delta, overseas demand remains weak enough to cap FOB prices. In this environment, exporters are increasingly targeting segments where demand is more resilient, such as glutinous, broken and premium fragrant rice for China and high-quality specialty rice for other developed markets.

Concentration risk is rising as Vietnam leans more heavily on a narrow set of Asian buyers. The Philippines and China together account for more than half of exports, while Iraq’s surge adds another significant, albeit more volatile, pillar. A sudden policy or tariff shift in any of these markets could therefore have an outsized effect on Vietnamese export flows and price realizations. At the same time, firmer EUR-denominated quotations for Indian parboiled and basmati rice suggest that competition among exporters remains intense but not yet aggressively deflationary, especially in higher-value segments.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Recent regional assessments point to generally favorable weather conditions for Vietnam’s late 2026 cropping cycle, supporting stable to slightly above-average production potential. Localized flooding and short-term rainfall variability have not yet translated into a broad-based supply shock, and market pricing currently assumes normal harvest outcomes. However, traders remain alert to any renewed El Niño or La Niña signals that could disrupt planting or harvesting windows later in the season.

In India, monsoon performance has been broadly adequate for main rice-growing states, reinforcing expectations of comfortable exportable surpluses in non-basmati and basmati categories. Combined with Thailand’s steady output, this keeps global buyers in a relatively strong negotiating position, and it helps explain why recent Vietnamese price cuts have met only modest incremental demand so far. Absent a major weather shock, fundamentals point to a well-supplied international market into early 2027.

Trading Outlook

• Near-term bias: With Vietnam 5% broken rice recently easing to $420–430/t and exports down 6.1% year on year, the short-term price bias remains slightly bearish to sideways while demand from the Philippines stays cautious.
• Vietnam focus: Exporters should prioritize managing exposure to the Philippines and China by locking in medium-term contracts where possible, while cultivating Iraq and other emerging markets to diversify risk.
• Importers’ stance: Buyers in Asia and Africa can afford a wait-and-see approach, using current softness to negotiate flexible shipment schedules and modest discounts, especially on standard white and 5% broken grades.
• Premium segments: Given relatively firm EUR quotations for Vietnamese Jasmine, Japonica and Indian basmati, hedging and forward coverage in these segments is advisable, as they are less likely to follow the full extent of any further downside in standard grades.

3-day price indication/outlook: Over the next three trading days, Vietnamese FOB prices for long white 5% around EUR 0.33/kg and Jasmine around EUR 0.35/kg in Hanoi are expected to trade in a narrow range with a mild downward bias in USD terms. Indian FOB New Delhi indications for 1121 steam (EUR 0.72/kg) and organic basmati (EUR 1.56/kg) should remain broadly stable, with only limited room for discounting unless a sharper drop in global benchmarks materializes.