Vietnam Rice FOB Prices Edge Higher as Weather Risks Linger

Vietnamese rice export quotations are edging higher, with broad-based FOB gains across all major Hanoi varieties, while Indian basmati and non-basmati offers in New Delhi remain stable but firm. Weather-related risks in Vietnam and strong regional demand keep the near-term price bias moderately bullish. Rice markets in Vietnam are tightening into late October as exporters report firmer demand from key Asian buyers and FOB prices in Hanoi have moved up 0.02–0.04 EUR/kg versus late September. At the same time, India continues to provide competitive basmati and parboiled supply, but with less visible price pressure in EUR terms. Regional weather has recently included heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of northern and central Vietnam, and seasonal flood peaks in the Mekong system, which add a modest risk premium to physical supply and logistics over the coming weeks.

Prices

Vietnam FOB Hanoi prices have shifted higher across the board compared with late September. Long white 5% is now at 0.35 EUR/kg FOB Hanoi, up from 0.32 EUR/kg on September 26. Jasmine stands at 0.37 EUR/kg versus 0.34 EUR/kg, while Japonica has inched up to 0.46 EUR/kg from 0.44 EUR/kg over the same period. Specialty segments also firmed, with black rice at 0.88 EUR/kg (0.85 EUR/kg previously) and red rice at 0.64 EUR/kg (0.60 EUR/kg previously). Paper dried rice shows a strong premium at 1.68 EUR/kg, rising from 1.64 EUR/kg in late September.

Indian prices in New Delhi are relatively steady in EUR terms, with recent moves driven more by currency and domestic fundamentals than by sharp FOB repricing. All steam PR11 is quoted at 0.32 EUR/kg FOB, identical to the last update. 1509 steam holds at 0.64 EUR/kg, and 1121 steam at 0.70 EUR/kg. Sharbati steam remains at 0.45 EUR/kg, while 1121 creamy white sella is unchanged at 0.60 EUR/kg. Organic basmati and non-basmati white rice post slightly higher levels at 1.57 EUR/kg and 1.27 EUR/kg respectively, both up 0.02 EUR/kg from October 10.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam’s rice exports in January–September 2026 are reported at 6.4 million tonnes, down 6.1% year-on-year, with export earnings falling almost 11% as average FOB prices eased earlier in the year. Vietnam’s 5% broken rice has recently rebounded to about 440–450 USD/tonne FOB, a two-month high and roughly 20–30 USD/tonne above levels quoted in early October. Demand from traditional buyers such as the Philippines and Indonesia, combined with sustained Chinese interest, is supporting Vietnamese offers into late October.

On the policy side, India remains a key reference for global rice availability. Non-basmati exports are currently regulated via registration and selective licensing, while parboiled and basmati shipments continue to flow without quantitative caps, albeit under tighter administrative oversight intended to prevent misclassification and ensure domestic availability. Global importers continue to monitor India’s stance closely, but with no fresh restrictive measures announced in the last few days, sentiment is driven more by weather and demand than by immediate policy shocks.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Vietnam Focus)

Vietnam recently experienced a tropical depression that brought heavy rainfall and flooding to northern and central provinces, with total rainfall exceeding 500 mm in some locations and more than 22,000 hectares of rice reportedly flooded. In the Mekong Delta, official agricultural forecasts earlier signaled that the seasonal flood peak would occur in October, raising concerns about localized lodging, harvest delays, and transport disruptions along smaller canals and rural roads. While these events are largely within seasonal norms, they do introduce short-term logistical risks and quality issues, particularly for late-sown summer–autumn and early autumn–winter crops.

For the next few days, scattered heavy showers are expected to persist over parts of southern and central Vietnam, including key rice-growing areas, consistent with typical late-monsoon volatility. Given that much of the main crop has already been harvested, the primary impact is likely to be on drying, storage, and short-haul trucking rather than on national output. However, exporters may retain a mild risk premium in offers to reflect potential shipment delays from smaller upcountry mills toward Ho Chi Minh City and northern ports.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

International benchmarks confirm the firmer tone in Vietnam prices. Independent price trackers show Vietnam 5% broken at around 418–450 USD/tonne for September–mid-October, recovering from earlier softness and approaching levels seen during the 2025–2026 price spike. At the same time, domestic producer prices in Vietnam remain below export FOB values, preserving healthy margins for millers and exporters and encouraging continued sales.

In India, basmati market dynamics remain influenced by strong export demand and steady policy settings. Recent reports highlight infrastructure and power-supply challenges in some northern milling regions, which could intermittently constrain processing capacity for premium basmati varieties but have not yet translated into visible EUR FOB price spikes in New Delhi offers. Overall, fundamentals point to a globally well-supplied market but with regional tightness and weather-related logistics noise that support the modest uptrend seen in Vietnam-origin quotes.

Trading Outlook & 3-Day Price Indication

• Short-term bias (Vietnam): With FOB Hanoi prices already 0.02–0.04 EUR/kg above late-September levels and external benchmarks firming, the near-term bias for Vietnamese long white 5% and fragrant types is modestly upward, especially for prompt and November shipment.
• Buyers’ strategy: End-users with Q4 physical needs should consider covering at least part of their requirements now, prioritizing Vietnam for quality-sensitive tenders and India for price-sensitive volumes, while keeping flexibility for potential Q1 2027 pullbacks.
• Sellers’ strategy: Vietnamese exporters can justify holding slightly higher offers for nearby positions but should remain competitive versus Thai and Indian origins, as global demand growth appears moderate rather than explosive.

Over the next three trading days, Vietnam FOB Hanoi prices are expected to remain firm with a mild upward tilt, particularly for long white 5%, Jasmine and Japonica grades, supported by active Asian demand and ongoing weather-related logistics risks. Indian New Delhi FOB basmati and non-basmati quotes are likely to trade sideways in EUR terms, with any adjustments driven mainly by currency moves and local procurement dynamics rather than by new policy announcements.