Vietnam Star Anise FOB Hanoi Steady as El Niño Risks Loom

Vietnamese star anise export prices from Hanoi are holding steady in early July, with no clear short‑term direction as buyers and sellers weigh strong trade activity against emerging weather risks linked to a strengthening El Niño. Export flows remain underpinned by Vietnam’s broadly robust trade performance, while hot, humid mid‑summer conditions in the North have not yet translated into concrete supply stress. However, official warnings that El Niño could intensify through late 2026 keep medium‑term weather and yield risks firmly on the radar, encouraging more cautious forward commitments.

Prices

Spot FOB Hanoi indications for Vietnamese star anise are broadly stable week-on-week. Converting from USD, current quotes cluster around EUR 7–8/kg for both conventional and organic grades, with virtually no change over the past three weeks. The flat price pattern suggests a balanced nearby market, with neither aggressive origin selling nor urgent short-covering from importers.

Stable EUR-denominated offers also reflect relatively calm FX conditions and the absence, so far, of major logistics shocks specifically targeting this niche spice segment. Broader Vietnamese export momentum remains strong, providing background support to farm-gate and FOB levels across multiple agro-products and tempering downside pressure on spices such as star anise.

Supply & Demand

On the demand side, Vietnam’s overall merchandise exports are expanding at double-digit rates, signalling resilient external appetite for agricultural and processed goods even as global growth remains uneven. This positive macro backdrop supports steady offtake from key star anise destinations such as China and other Asian markets, where the spice is used in food, beverage, and pharmaceutical applications.

Domestically, agro‑forestry‑fishery exports grew by about 6% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, highlighting continued competitiveness of Vietnam’s agri complex. While detailed, up-to-the-minute customs breakdowns for star anise alone are not available in the past three days, the broader data imply no sudden collapse in demand for specialty spices. Instead, buyers appear to be purchasing hand-to-mouth, keeping pipelines filled but avoiding large speculative stock-building ahead of the next harvest.

Weather & Crop Outlook (VN)

Northern Vietnam, including Hanoi as a proxy for nearby star anise-growing provinces, is entering the core hot-wet summer period. Historical and 2026 climate guidance for July indicates daytime highs around 31–34°C with high humidity and frequent rainfall or storms. These conditions are typical for the season and, in the very short term, do not imply an immediate shock to tree health or flowering.

The main emerging risk comes from official forecasts that the ongoing El Niño event is likely to intensify and persist through late 2026 to early 2027, raising the probability of drought and water stress for Vietnamese agriculture more broadly. While star anise trees are relatively resilient, a prolonged drier-than-normal period in key northern highland regions later this year could trim yields and tighten exportable supplies into the 2026/27 marketing window. Market participants are starting to factor this in via more cautious forward offers rather than through immediate price spikes.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Macro trade tailwind: Vietnam’s total trade turnover approached EUR 510–515 billion-equivalent in H1 2026, up about 27% year-on-year, underlining strong export logistics and port throughput that indirectly support spice shipments.
• Agri export resilience: Agro‑forestry‑fishery exports rose around 6% in the same period, indicating stable to firm demand for high‑value agri products, including spices, even amid changing Chinese import rules for other categories such as fruits.
• Weather risk premium (latent): The updated El Niño outlook increases medium‑term risk but has not yet resulted in physical shortages or field reports of star anise stress, keeping any weather premium modest and forward-looking.

In sum, the fundamental setup for star anise from Vietnam in early July is one of short‑term balance with a slight upward tilt in risk for late‑2026 supply. The absence of clear disruptions and the niche nature of the market help explain today’s flat price curve despite noisier signals in other commodity complexes.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)

• For buyers: Use current sideways EUR prices to secure near-term coverage, but avoid overextending forward positions until there is more clarity on actual El Niño impact on northern highland rainfall.
• For origin sellers: Maintain offer discipline at current levels; only consider modest discounts for larger, prompt-volume deals if export flows temporarily slow, as the medium‑term weather risk argues against aggressive undercutting.
• For traders: Focus on spreads between conventional and organic grades and on cross‑commodity arbitrage with other Vietnamese spices where weather or logistics tightness is more pronounced, using star anise as a relatively stable leg.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (VN, FOB Hanoi)

• Conventional star anise: EUR 7.0–7.2/kg, bias: sideways.
• Organic star anise: EUR 6.3–6.5/kg, bias: sideways to mildly firm if any fresh El Niño headlines emerge.