West Africa’s 2026 cashew crop is tracking up to 250,000 tons below last year’s record, tightening raw cashew nut (RCN) availability and keeping prices firm despite a softening demand backdrop. Kernel offers from Vietnam and African origins are edging higher as processors pass on elevated RCN procurement costs.
Across Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Benin, the current season is clearly undershooting 2025’s exceptional harvest. Competition between local processors and exporters is intense for remaining stocks, while quality issues and logistics bottlenecks add further costs. On the demand side, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and election-related cash constraints in India are curbing spot buying, but trade sources still advise maintaining coverage at least through Q2 2026 given the structurally tighter raw nut supply.
📈 Prices & Crop Situation
West Africa’s 2026 cashew harvest is estimated 200,000–250,000 tons below the 2025 record, with the shortfall spread across Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Benin. This deficit is already visible in firm RCN offer prices and growing competition for quality lots.
In Côte d’Ivoire, total tracked arrivals reached about 767,000 tons by 5 April 2026, including nuts still in truck queues. Farmgate RCN prices are holding around 400 FCFA/kg (≈ EUR 0.57/kg), with buyers facing additional costs for cleaning and drying due to inconsistent on-farm post-harvest handling.
Ghana is in a late-season phase with declining volumes and farmgate prices in Bono around 10–12 GHS/kg (≈ EUR 0.77–0.92/kg). Some exporters have shifted procurement to Côte d’Ivoire, Togo, and Burkina Faso in search of better availability. In Nigeria, well-dried nuts in western regions are quoted around 1,800–1,950 NGN/kg (≈ EUR 0.88–0.95/kg), though port congestion at Lagos is delaying exports in the short term.
🌍 Supply & Demand Balance
The RCN market is tightening as field stocks decline and quality issues from rainfall complicate drying and sorting. Local processors in Côte d’Ivoire alone have already procured roughly 637,000 tons, leaving less room for exporters and heightening competition for remaining volumes.
On the demand side, kernel off-take is underperforming seasonal norms. Geopolitical tensions affecting Middle East and Gulf shipping routes have lifted freight and insurance costs, stalling buying from key Gulf-region importers. In India, the combination of a weaker rupee, central bank intervention, and election-related cash restrictions for traders has kept domestic kernel demand largely dull.
Despite these headwinds, the underlying balance remains tight because of the smaller 2026 crop and parallel constraints in other tree nuts such as pistachios, almonds, and walnuts. This cross-complex tightness limits substitution away from cashews and supports current price levels.
📊 Kernel Markets & Fundamentals
Vietnam, the leading kernel processor, has raised offers by about USD 0.10–0.15/lb in response to firm RCN costs. Converted to euros, benchmark W320 kernels are now in the region of EUR 2.67–2.84/lb FOB Ho Chi Minh City, while W240 trades slightly higher around EUR 2.84–2.94/lb.
Vietnamese packers are operating cautiously as US buyers delay forward coverage, preferring nearby shipments amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. Nevertheless, market participants advise covering needs at least through Q2 2026 and maintaining safety stocks because of uncertain second-crop prospects in West Africa and still-elevated raw material prices.
African-origin kernel indications also reflect a firm tone. Indicative FOB levels for early April place W210 around EUR 3.26–3.30/lb, W240 at roughly EUR 3.05–3.17/lb, and W320 near EUR 2.89–3.02/lb. In India, premium W180 kernels are trading above roughly EUR 11.40/kg in Mangalore, while W320 fetches the equivalent of around EUR 9.15/kg, underlining the strength of high-end whole grades despite sluggish overall demand.
| Product / Origin | Grade | Indicative Price (EUR) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Côte d’Ivoire RCN | Farmgate | ≈ 0.57 €/kg | Producer level |
| Ghana RCN (Bono) | Farmgate | ≈ 0.77–0.92 €/kg | Producer level |
| Nigeria RCN (West) | Well-dried | ≈ 0.88–0.95 €/kg | Local trade |
| Vietnam kernels | W320 | ≈ 2.67–2.84 €/lb | FOB HCMC |
| Africa kernels | W320 | ≈ 2.89–3.02 €/lb | FOB |
| India kernels | W180 | > 11.40 €/kg | Ex-Mangalore |
🌦️ Weather & Logistics Watch
Ongoing rainfall across parts of West Africa is negatively affecting RCN quality by slowing on-farm drying and increasing mold and moisture risks. This is raising processing and cleaning costs and incentivising buyers to pay premiums for well-dried, well-sorted lots.
Logistics remain a secondary but important constraint. Port congestion in Lagos is creating near-term export delays, though shipping lines expect gradual normalisation in vessel movements. Meanwhile, disruptions in Middle East shipping corridors are inflating freight and insurance costs for kernel shipments to and through the region, adding further friction to trade flows.
📆 Market Outlook (30–90 Days)
Over the next one to three months, RCN prices in West Africa are likely to stay firm to slightly higher as field stocks decline and competition for quality nuts intensifies. Any further weather-related quality deterioration would disproportionately support prices for top-grade RCN.
Kernel prices from Vietnam and African origins are expected to remain under upward pressure, even if demand from India, the Middle East, and parts of Europe and the US stays cautious. The smaller 2026 crop and uncertain second-crop prospects leave little buffer if demand rebounds or if logistics worsen.
On a 6–12 month view, the key swing factor will be the evolution of geopolitical tensions affecting Middle Eastern demand and shipping. A normalisation of Gulf buying against a smaller global RCN supply could tighten kernel availability quickly, while persistently high energy and freight costs may keep major buyers on short cover and cap aggressive price spikes.
💡 Trading Outlook & Strategy
- Roasters and importers (EU/US): Maintain coverage at least through Q2 2026, with some safety stock in W320 and W240, as advised by trade sources, given tight RCN supply and uncertain second-crop outcomes.
- Buyers with exposure to Middle East demand: Avoid over-reliance on Gulf re-exports until freight, insurance, and demand clarity improve; focus on flexible shipment windows and diversified destination options.
- Processors in origin countries: Prioritise procurement of well-dried, sorted RCN to minimise additional processing losses; consider price premiums for quality to secure reliable feedstock.
- Speculative participants: Current fundamentals favour a modestly bullish bias, but weak near-term demand and geopolitical risks argue for disciplined position sizing and tight risk limits.
📉 3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)
- West Africa RCN (farmgate, EUR/kg): Stable to slightly firmer as local competition persists and supplies tighten.
- Vietnam kernels FOB (EUR/lb): Steady to marginally higher, reflecting already-implemented increases and firm RCN replacement costs.
- Africa kernels FOB (EUR/lb): Firm bias, with limited spot offers and strong replacement values offsetting muted demand.
