Wheat drifts near multi‑month lows as Black Sea risks clash with bigger crops

Wheat futures remain pinned near multi‑month lows, with only a modest rebound in Paris contrasting with renewed weakness in Chicago. Currency moves, higher crop estimates in Australia and Argentina and an only slowly recovering Black Sea export corridor are keeping the market under pressure and capping any rallies for now. After several down sessions, the wheat complex is searching for a floor rather than a clear turning point. On Euronext, the front December 2026 milling wheat contract gained EUR 2.00 to EUR 228.50 per tonne on Tuesday, while later maturities were mixed to flat. In Chicago, December wheat lost 5.75 cents to 610.25 cents per bushel, keeping prices close to recent lows despite a still‑supportive geopolitical backdrop. Export demand remains tepid at current values, and the latest export tender activity underlines that buyers are in no rush.

Prices

The Euronext December 2026 milling wheat contract closed at EUR 228.50/t on Tuesday, up EUR 2.00 on the day, with the curve around it posting only marginal gains or losses. This slight recovery follows a broader decline over recent weeks that pushed Paris wheat to multi‑month lows, partly cushioned by a weaker euro.

CBOT December wheat, by contrast, extended losses to 610.25 cents/bu, reflecting additional pressure from a strong US dollar and limited export interest. Physical quotations echo this soft tone: in Ukraine, CPT Odesa wheat on October 27 was shown at EUR 0.171/kg for grade 2, EUR 0.158/kg for grade 3 and EUR 0.14/kg for feed, while German feed wheat EXW Drentwede was at EUR 0.235/kg, unchanged day on day.

Supply & Demand

The global balance is easing as Southern Hemisphere prospects improve. US agricultural attachés have raised their wheat harvest forecasts to 32 million tonnes for Australia (up 1 million tonnes) and 23 million tonnes for Argentina (up 1.5 million tonnes). This additional output is set to expand export availability from both origins in the coming half year and increases competition for Black Sea and EU suppliers.

On the demand side, lower prices have not yet sparked a notable import acceleration. Jordan purchased only 60,000 tonnes of wheat in a recent international tender, highlighting cautious buying behaviour. EU soft wheat exports from the start of the season to October 25 reached 9.214 million tonnes, just 1% above last year, despite improved price competitiveness from a weaker euro.

Within the EU, Romania leads wheat exports with 4.0 million tonnes shipped, followed by Lithuania with 1.35 million tonnes, Poland with 1.1 million tonnes and Germany with 605,000 tonnes in the latest weekly tally. Data for France and Bulgaria remain incomplete, so total EU exports are likely understated, but the overall pace still suggests only moderate demand growth rather than a strong pull.

Black Sea & Trade Flows

Market sentiment continues to hinge on developments in the Black Sea, where shipping conditions remain crucial for global wheat availability. The recent price weakness partly reflects hopes that navigation can normalize, allowing larger volumes of Ukrainian and Russian wheat to move safely.

However, Moscow’s stance contradicts some of this market optimism. While Russia has acknowledged talks with Turkey, officials currently see no prospects for restoring the formal Black Sea grain initiative. Turkey has floated a concept of two separate security corridors, routing Ukrainian vessels along the Romanian and Bulgarian coasts towards the Bosporus and Russian ships along Georgian and Turkish coasts, but the security situation at sea remains unresolved and risks for commercial shipping are still significant.

In physical markets, Ukrainian export offers signal continued discounting to overcome freight and risk premiums. FOB Odesa quotations for milling wheat with 11.00–12.50% protein range around EUR 0.107–0.143/kg depending on quality, while FCA values ex‑Odesa and Kyiv stand near EUR 0.14–0.18/kg. This pricing underlines Ukraine’s need to stay competitive against expanding Australian and Argentine supply and the still‑ample Russian export programme.

EU Export Performance

EU soft wheat exports of 9.214 million tonnes by October 25 mark a modest 1% increase over the same period last season. Weekly shipments rose by 744,000 tonnes, signalling that the bloc is steadily clearing surplus but not at a pace that would quickly tighten domestic stocks. Key destinations include Saudi Arabia (1.134 million tonnes), Nigeria (999,000 tonnes), Algeria (773,000 tonnes), South Africa (383,000 tonnes) and Bangladesh (368,000 tonnes).

This export pattern highlights the importance of traditional Mediterranean and sub‑Saharan markets for EU wheat. Nonetheless, incomplete data from France and Bulgaria suggest some upside revision is likely once reporting catches up. For now, though, the export pace combined with higher Southern Hemisphere crops points to a comfortable global availability and validates the market’s current discounting.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

For the coming days, wheat prices are likely to remain range‑bound near recent lows, with currency moves and fresh Black Sea headlines as the main catalysts. The strong US dollar continues to weigh on CBOT futures, while the weaker euro is cushioning Euronext and helping EU exporters compete more effectively. Weather in major Southern Hemisphere producers does not currently present an acute threat large enough to offset the recent upward revisions in Australian and Argentine crops.

• For importers: Consider scaling in coverage on price dips near current levels, especially from flexible origins (EU, Black Sea, Argentina), but avoid over‑front‑loading purchases while Southern Hemisphere harvest progress and Black Sea talks remain fluid.
• For EU producers and sellers: Use minor rallies on Euronext back towards recent highs in the EUR 230s/t to extend hedging for remaining old‑crop and early new‑crop sales, given comfortable global supply signals.
• For speculators: With futures near multi‑month lows but geopolitical risks unresolved, short positions should be tightly risk‑managed; volatility spikes on any deterioration in Black Sea security could trigger sharp short‑covering moves.

Over the next three sessions, Euronext December 2026 wheat is expected to trade sideways to slightly firmer around the EUR 225–232/t band as the market digests export data and currency moves. CBOT December wheat is likely to remain under relative pressure compared with Paris, reflecting US dollar strength and sluggish export sales. In the Black Sea, basis levels for Ukrainian CPT Odesa wheat should stay soft but broadly stable, with only limited scope for further downside unless ocean freight and security risks ease materially.