Wheat edges higher on softer euro, Russian export pace and strong EU crop outlook

Wheat prices have recovered slightly from recent two-and-a-half‑week lows, but the upside remains capped by strong Russian export competition and comfortable EU supply prospects. A weaker euro is offering some support to Paris futures and EU exporters, while dryness in key US winter wheat states provides a weather‑related risk premium. After the recent dip, the market is stabilising rather than starting a clear uptrend. Russian export prices at Black Sea ports are holding steady despite earlier weakness in Paris and Chicago, suggesting that aggressive Russian offers are easing but export flows remain strong. In the EU, well‑watered soils and good reservoir levels underpin expectations for a solid 2026 harvest, while sluggish third‑country exports limit price momentum despite currency support. Overall, fundamental balance still leans bearish to neutral, with weather risks in the US Plains the main potential trigger for further short‑covering.

Prices & Spreads

After closing at the lowest level in around two and a half weeks on Monday, wheat futures moved modestly higher on Tuesday, helped by currency moves and steadier Black Sea competition. French FOB wheat (11.0% protein, Paris) is indicated around EUR 0.29/kg, unchanged on the week, while US wheat (11.5% protein, CBOT basis) is quoted near EUR 0.21/kg. Ukrainian FOB offers out of Odesa remain the cheapest origin at roughly EUR 0.18–0.19/kg depending on quality, underscoring ongoing price pressure from the Black Sea.

Supply & Demand Drivers

On the export side, the pressure from Russia has eased somewhat in terms of outright pricing, with Black Sea export offers holding at last week’s levels rather than tracking the previous declines in Paris and Chicago. However, Russian export volumes remain strong. SovEcon has raised its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast by 1.1 million tonnes to 46.5 million tonnes and its 2026/27 forecast by 2.1 million tonnes to 43.8 million tonnes, reinforcing Russia’s role as the dominant marginal supplier.

EU export demand remains sluggish in comparison, despite the weaker euro improving competitiveness. Shipments to third countries up to 22 March reached 17.14 million tonnes, only 370,000 tonnes more than a week earlier and around 6% above last year. Romania remains the leading soft wheat exporter with 5.72 million tonnes, followed by France (4.57 million tonnes), Poland (2.03 million tonnes) and Lithuania (1.81 million tonnes). Germany’s exports stand at 1.34 million tonnes, up slightly week‑on‑week. Incomplete reporting for France, Bulgaria, Ireland and Greece means actual volumes are somewhat higher, but the overall picture is still one of only moderate EU export momentum.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals in Europe are broadly comfortable. From Portugal to Bulgaria, soils are well replenished and water reservoirs for irrigation are well filled, creating favourable conditions for the coming 2026 crop. These good yield prospects, combined with only slowly improving export flows, are key factors limiting further price gains in the near term.

In contrast, weather remains a concern in parts of the US Plains. Ongoing dry conditions in major winter wheat states such as Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas have led to a deterioration in crop condition ratings, with no clear shift to a wetter pattern in the immediate outlook. This dryness underpins a modest weather risk premium in US prices and could become a stronger driver if it persists into critical spring development stages.

Trading Outlook

• Importers: The combination of steady Russian availability, competitive Ukrainian FOB prices and good EU crop prospects argues for a patient, incremental buying strategy. Short‑term dips driven by currency or macro moves may offer value, particularly for nearby needs.
• EU producers: With strong Russian export forecasts and sluggish EU shipments, rallies should be viewed as opportunities to advance old‑crop sales and begin scaling in new‑crop hedges, especially if US weather premiums temporarily lift global prices.
• Traders: Market tone is broadly range‑bound with a bearish bias. Consider strategies that monetise volatility around weather headlines in the US Plains while respecting the underlying cap from ample Black Sea and EU supplies.

3‑Day Regional Price Indications

• Paris (milling wheat, FOB equivalent): Slightly firmer to sideways, supported by the weaker euro but capped by strong Black Sea competition.
• Black Sea (Russia/Ukraine, FOB): Largely steady, with Russia maintaining high export volumes and Ukraine remaining the price leader on lower‑quality wheats.
• US Gulf / Plains basis: Mild upward bias on continued dryness in Kansas–Oklahoma–Texas; further gains contingent on confirmation of persistent moisture deficits.