Wheat glut in 2025/26: how record stocks reshape prices in 2026

Record-breaking wheat harvests in the 2025/26 season are reshaping the global cereal market and setting the tone for prices in 2026. According to USDA figures cited by Polish market analyst Mirosław Marciniak, global wheat production is estimated at around 842.2 million tonnes, over 5% higher than the previous season’s 800.8 million tonnes. This surge is not only global, but also visible in Europe and Poland, making the current season unprecedented in terms of supply. Even more telling is the strong build-up of ending stocks: world wheat inventories are estimated more than 7% higher than last season, which means roughly 18.25 million tonnes of additional wheat weighing on the market. The key exporters – the US, Canada, Russia, Ukraine, the EU, Australia and Argentina – are all contributing to this oversupply, with their combined harvests up over 12% year-on-year and their ending stocks potentially jumping by as much as 28.5%. In such an environment, the balance of power is tilting towards buyers. Major importers in Africa, the Middle East and Asia are under little pressure to rush into purchases, as they see abundant supply and growing exporter competition. For producers in the EU and Poland, this translates into persistent downward pressure on prices, narrower margins and a market where fundamentals – not short-term policy moves – are the dominant driver. The 2026 wheat market thus opens as a classic surplus year: comfortable stocks, aggressive exporters and importers who can afford to wait and play suppliers off against one another.

📈 Prices & Market Structure

Spot and FOB indications (converted to EUR)

The following table is based on the provided current product offers (FOB/FCA) expressed in EUR per kg, converted to approximate EUR per tonne (×1000) for easier comparison. They broadly confirm the picture from the Raw Text: comfortable global supply is reflected in low, largely sideways prices rather than any bullish spike.

Origin / Specification	Location / Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Latest Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change (EUR/t)	Sentiment
Wheat 12.5% protein	UA Odesa, FOB (id 770)	0.19	190	≈0 (from 0.19 → 0.19)	Bearish / flat – supply heavy
Wheat 11.0% protein	FR Paris, FOB (id 727)	0.29	290	0 (stable for weeks)	Softly bearish – no risk premium
Wheat 11.5% protein, CBOT-linked	US, FOB (id 738)	0.21	210	0 (stable)	Pressure from global stocks
Wheat 11.0% protein	UA Odesa, FOB (id 772)	0.18	180	0	Very competitive exporter pricing
Wheat 10.5% protein	UA Odesa, FOB (id 771)	0.19	190	0	Feed / lower-quality segment also heavy

These levels – roughly 180–190 EUR/t for Black Sea FOB and around 290 EUR/t for French FOB – are consistent with a global market in which exporters are forced to compete aggressively on price to secure demand. The Raw Text’s conclusion that importers will not rush to buy, because “towar będzie wręcz na zawołanie” (wheat available almost on demand), is fully reflected in this flat, low-volatility price environment.

Futures benchmarks and regional context

While the detailed futures quotations from CBOT and Euronext/MATIF are not in the Raw Text, USDA’s January 2026 WASDE and related market commentary underline that higher global wheat production and rising ending stocks pushed grain futures lower immediately after the January release, reinforcing the “comfortable supply” narrative. In practice this means:

• Chicago and Paris wheat have been trading without a significant weather-risk premium.
• Basis levels in Poland and the wider CEE region are under pressure from cheap Black Sea and strong EU internal supply.
• Volatility spikes are more likely to be driven by short-covering and logistics than by pure fundamental tightness.

🌍 Supply & Demand: Fundamentals vs. Policy

Global production and stocks

The core of the current wheat market situation is captured in the Raw Text summary of Mirosław Marciniak’s analysis, based on the USDA January outlook:

• Global wheat production 2025/26: 842.2 million tonnes, about +5% vs. 800.8 million tonnes in the previous season.
• Global ending stocks: more than 7% higher year-on-year, up by about 18.25 million tonnes.
• Record season for production globally, in Europe and in Poland.

External USDA and FAO/AMIS sources fully corroborate this picture, highlighting that world wheat production and ending stocks for 2025/26 were raised to new highs, with comfortable reserves in key regions such as China, India and the US.

Role of major exporters

Marciniak focuses on the group of largest wheat exporters: the US, Canada, Russia, Ukraine, the EU, Australia and Argentina. For this group, the Raw Text stresses two points:

• Harvests up by over 12% compared with the previous season.
• Ending stocks potentially up by 28.5%, a massive increase in exportable surplus.

Such a combined rise in production and stocks among exporters is structurally bearish. External USDA summaries show that the January 2026 updates raised output forecasts especially for Argentina and Russia, and lifted global carryover projections, reinforcing the pressure on export quotations.

Behaviour of importers

The Raw Text concludes that importers in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, seeing such large stocks in exporters’ hands, will delay purchases because they expect wheat to be available “on call”. This has several implications:

• Import tenders may be spaced out, with shorter shipping windows, increasing competition among exporters.
• Buyers can demand more flexible terms (quality, shipment periods, payment conditions), knowing that suppliers are under pressure.
• Price discovery may increasingly shift to tenders and bilateral deals rather than benchmark futures alone, as exporters undercut one another.

Poland and the EU

Within Europe, and particularly in Poland, the record production season described in the Raw Text means heavy on-farm stocks and pressure on local elevators. Together with strong EU and Black Sea supply, this forces Polish sellers into a “price taker” role. Even if local logistics, port capacity or policy occasionally move basis levels, the underlying driver is excess supply in exporters’ hands, not domestic policy shifts.

📊 Fundamentals: Inventories, USDA balance sheets & positioning

USDA balance sheets

• The January 2026 USDA WASDE raised global wheat production to about 842.2 million tonnes and increased ending stocks, directly matching the figures cited in the Raw Text.
• Subsequent USDA and analytical updates continue to describe wheat as the crop with the most comfortable global balance among major cereals, with ending stocks climbing and no major demand shock to absorb them.

Global production & stock comparison (simplified)

Indicative snapshot for 2025/26 (all figures rounded, consistent with Raw Text and USDA/FAO narrative):

Country / Region	Role	Production 2025/26 (approx. mln t)	Ending stocks trend	Comment
European Union (incl. PL)	Major exporter	~130–135	Up	Record or near-record harvest, strong exportable surplus.
Russia	Top exporter	~89–91	Up	Large crops sustain aggressive pricing into MENA and Asia.
Ukraine	Exporter	~23–26	Stable to up	Competitive Black Sea FOB offers (180–190 EUR/t range) confirm strong availability.
Argentina	Exporter	~27.5	Up sharply	Rebound from previous poor harvests adds to Southern Hemisphere supply.
United States	Exporter, benchmark futures	~50–52 (all wheat)	Up	Ending stocks at multi‑year highs, pressuring SRW/HRW futures.
China & India	Mostly domestic	High	Up	Large public stocks buffer global shocks, add to overall “comfortable” narrative.

Speculative positioning

Although the Raw Text does not directly address speculative money, the combination of record supplies and rising stocks typically encourages managed money to hold net short or only modest net long positions in wheat futures. External market commentaries from early 2026 note pressure on wheat prices after WASDE releases, consistent with funds adding shorts on bearish fundamentals. In such an environment:

• Short-covering rallies are possible but likely limited without a clear weather or policy shock.
• Options volatility tends to be moderate, making strategies like buying cheap calls for weather risk hedging more attractive than in tight years.

🌦 Weather Outlook for Poland & Key Growing Regions

Short-term (Poland, region PL)

For Warsaw and central Poland over 17–19 March 2026, forecasts show mild, early‑spring conditions: daytime highs around 11–14°C, lows near 1–2°C, with a mix of hazy sun and clouds and no severe frost events expected.

• Winter wheat: Such temperatures are broadly favourable for gradual exit from dormancy, with low risk of winterkill in this short window.
• Field work: Where soils are not excessively wet, these conditions support initial fertiliser applications and field checks.
• Market impact: Over the next three days, weather is neutral to slightly bearish for prices, reinforcing the comfortable supply narrative from the Raw Text.

Broader wheat belt

Outside Poland, recent USDA and FAO updates do not indicate any large-scale weather catastrophe in major exporters that would offset the record production and high stocks described by Marciniak. Instead, revisions for countries like Argentina and Russia have been on the upside, confirming that weather and agronomic conditions to date have been broadly supportive of large crops.

📆 Outlook for 2026: What to Expect in the Second Half of 2025/26

Key themes from Marciniak’s analysis

The Raw Text, summarising the February presentation “Fundamenty czy polityka? Czego należy oczekiwać w drugiej części sezonu 2025/26 na rynku zbóż?”, clearly emphasises fundamentals over politics. In a record production year for the world, Europe and Poland, with exporter stocks up sharply, the wheat market in the second half of 2025/26 will likely be driven by:

• High exporter competition on price and quality.
• Slower, tactical buying by importers, who see ample supply.
• Limited price upside unless there is a significant weather shock in the Northern Hemisphere or major policy disruption (export bans, logistics crises).

Scenario assessment

• Base case (most consistent with Raw Text): Wheat prices in 2026 remain under pressure, with Black Sea FOB around 175–195 EUR/t and EU milling wheat roughly 260–300 EUR/t, fluctuating with currency and freight but capped by large stocks.
• Bullish risk: A severe spring–summer weather event affecting one or more major exporters (e.g. drought in the Black Sea or EU) could tighten the balance and trigger fund short-covering, but this is not visible in current forecasts.
• Bearish risk: If new USDA/FAO data further revise crops or stocks upward, or if demand in key importers weakens, exporters may cut prices even more aggressively, especially in feed-quality and high‑protein segments where competition is strongest.

🧭 Trading & Risk-Management Outlook

For Polish and EU farmers

• Assume a surplus environment: large global and EU crops and high exporter stocks make substantial price recovery unlikely without a weather shock.
• Use price rallies triggered by news (e.g. weather scares, logistics problems) to lock in portions of your crop via forward contracts rather than waiting for sustained uptrends.
• Consider staggered sales, combining on‑farm storage with pre‑harvest hedges (e.g. selling futures or using options) to smooth price risk over time.
• Focus on quality management: in an oversupplied market, premiums for protein and specific quality parameters (e.g. 12.5% vs. 10.5%) can be critical for farm margins.

For traders and exporters

• Expect aggressive competition in tenders from Black Sea and Argentina; margin management, freight optimisation and currency hedging will be crucial.
• Monitor importer buying patterns in MENA and Asia: slow, opportunistic tendering is consistent with the Raw Text’s view that buyers will not hurry.
• Use spreads between origins (e.g. EU vs. Black Sea vs. US) as a key trading tool, as flat price upside is limited by global stocks.

For mills and feed users

• Leverage the buyer’s market: negotiate flexible delivery and quality terms, and avoid over‑committing far ahead when abundantly supplied exporters are likely to discount.
• Maintain some optional origin clauses in contracts to switch between EU and Black Sea supply depending on weekly price moves.
• Consider incremental hedging on futures – locking in margins when flat prices dip, while retaining some exposure to further downside.

📅 3‑Day Regional Price Outlook (Focus: PL / CEE)

Given the dominance of global fundamentals described in the Raw Text – record production and high exporter stocks – short‑term price movements in Poland over the next three days (17–19 March 2026) are expected to be modest.

Region / Benchmark	Reference Level (approx., EUR/t)	3‑Day Outlook	Drivers
Poland internal (milling wheat ex‑farm)	~200–220	Sideways	Stable EU/Black Sea FOB; no weather shock; comfortable stocks.
EU (Paris FOB proxy via FR wheat)	~290 (from FR FOB offer)	Sideways to slightly softer	Global surplus and soft futures, strong competition from Black Sea.
Black Sea (UA FOB Odesa)	~180–190	Sideways	Exporters already pricing aggressively; little room to move lower in three days without new shocks.

In summary, over the very short term the wheat market in Poland and the region is expected to remain calm, with fundamentals and the record‑supply backdrop described by Marciniak keeping prices under structural pressure but without immediate catalysts for sharp moves.