Wheat markets: Euronext stalls as weather and export flows shift

Euronext wheat is treading water despite firmer recent gains, as improved European crop prospects and stiff Black Sea competition cap upside, while CBOT is supported by mixed US crop conditions and steady export flows.

The global wheat market currently sits in a tug-of-war between improving new‑crop prospects in Europe and lingering weather and production risks in key US regions. At Euronext, recent price increases have stalled, with higher oil prices no longer providing sufficient support and export competitiveness weakening against stable Russian offer levels. In Germany, old‑crop prices are slipping as supply outpaces demand, while importers remain cautious, hoping for lower prices once tensions in the Persian Gulf ease. In the US, a modest improvement in winter wheat ratings and a solid start to spring wheat sowing weigh on Minneapolis futures, but high shares of poor winter wheat and uncertain rains in drought‑hit southern states limit the downside.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Euronext (MATIF) wheat futures show a flat session on 4–5 May 2026, with no major advances despite recent strength. The May 2026 contract last traded at around EUR 191/t, with the new‑crop September 2026 at roughly EUR 214/t and December 2026 at about EUR 223/t. The forward curve remains modestly upward‑sloping into 2027–2028, signalling carry and comfortable supply expectations.

On CBOT, soft red winter wheat is firmer, with July 2026 around 647 USc/bu (≈ EUR 237/t) and December 2026 near 683 USc/bu (≈ EUR 250/t) based on current FX assumptions. Minneapolis spring wheat has come under pressure after a good planting start. Physical FOB offers underline the price hierarchy: French wheat around EUR 270/t, US CBOT‑based wheat near EUR 190/t and Ukrainian FOB Odesa near EUR 170–180/t, reflecting ongoing strong competitiveness of Black Sea origins.

Market / Product	Latest price (EUR/t)	Comment
Euronext Wheat May 2026	≈191	Sideways, no further gains
Euronext Wheat Sep 2026	≈214	New‑crop benchmark, mild carry
CBOT SRW Jul 2026 (conv.)	≈237	Supported by US weather / exports
FOB FR 11% protein	≈270	Competitiveness weakened vs. Russia
FOB UA 11% protein Odesa	≈170	Sharp discount, strong export edge

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

In Western Europe, export demand is muted. Russian export prices have remained stable over the past week while Euronext futures rose, eroding price competitiveness for EU wheat. Importers are in a wait‑and‑see mode, hoping for an easing of tensions in the Persian Gulf and associated freight and risk premia, which could translate into lower wheat purchase prices.

Domestically, German old‑crop prices are weakening as supply clearly exceeds current demand. The outlook for the 2026/27 European crop is improving thanks to forecast rainfall across almost all of Europe, easing concerns after earlier dryness. This improved production perspective further reduces the urgency for importers to secure nearby coverage at current price levels, especially while Black Sea offers remain aggressive.

📊 Fundamentals & Trade Flows

On the demand side, the Algerian state grain agency OAIC has issued a new international tender for milling wheat, with delivery up to the end of July. Although the nominal volume is 50,000 t, OAIC typically books substantially larger amounts; in its late‑March tender, Algeria bought almost 700,000 t of wheat at around USD 272/t cif (≈ EUR 252/t). This tender is an important test of current origin spreads and will show to what extent EU wheat can still compete with Russia and the Black Sea.

US export fundamentals are improving moderately. USDA data show wheat export inspections at 434,204 t for the week to 30 April, 17% above the previous week and 5% above the same week last year. Cumulative exports in the 2025/26 marketing year since 1 June now reach 22.29 million t, about 12% above last year. Mexico, Indonesia and Thailand are currently the largest weekly buyers, underpinning CBOT futures even as some production indicators improve.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Conditions

Weather and crop ratings in the US remain a key swing factor. The latest Crop Progress data show the share of winter wheat rated good to excellent improving slightly by one percentage point to 31% week‑on‑week, still far below 51% a year earlier. At the same time, 37% of winter wheat is now rated poor to very poor, two points above the previous week and more than double last year’s 18%, highlighting deep regional stress.

Spring wheat sowing is progressing well, with 32% of intended area planted, close to the long‑term average of 35%. Emergence on 10% of area versus a 9% average underpins the negative price reaction in Minneapolis spring wheat futures. In drought‑affected southern US Plains, rainfall is forecast this week, but there is concern that the moisture could arrive too late as many fields have already entered grain‑filling. In Europe, expected widespread rainfall in the coming days should further stabilise yield prospects and contributes to the soft tone on Euronext.

📆 Outlook & Trading Ideas

Overall, the wheat market is trapped between supportive US crop issues and increasingly comfortable European supply expectations. The weak export demand for EU origins and stable, competitive Russian Black Sea offers are likely to cap rallies on Euronext in the short term. Conversely, the high share of US winter wheat in poor condition and only cautiously improving export flows limit the downside for CBOT futures.

• Producers in the EU: Consider incremental hedging on new‑crop positions around current Euronext values, as improving weather and weak export demand argue for limited short‑term upside.
• Importers in MENA / Asia: Maintain a staggered buying strategy, using dips triggered by good US weather or strong Russian offers to extend coverage into Q3, while monitoring Algerian tender results for price benchmarks.
• Traders / Speculators: The spread between CBOT and Euronext, and between EU and Black Sea physicals, offers relative value opportunities; leaning modestly short EU versus Black Sea or CBOT may be attractive while European crop prospects keep improving.

📉 Short‑Term Price Indications (3‑Day View)

• Euronext (MATIF) wheat: Sideways to slightly softer bias (−2 to +3 EUR/t), as improved European weather and sluggish exports weigh on sentiment.
• CBOT wheat: Slightly firmer to sideways (+0 to +5 EUR/t equivalent), driven by ongoing concerns about US winter wheat conditions and steady export demand.
• Black Sea (FOB Odesa): Prices expected broadly stable in EUR terms, maintaining a sizable discount to EU origins and preserving strong competitiveness in upcoming tenders.