Wheat Prices Edge Higher in EU and US While Black Sea Stays Competitive

Wheat prices are edging higher in Western benchmarks while Black Sea physical values remain broadly stable, with markets weighing extreme heat in core EU regions against expectations for another very large Russian crop. Short‑term, the tone is firmer for MATIF and CBOT, while Ukrainian and German cash bids show only modest gains, keeping Black Sea origins competitive into nearby demand. Amid a European heatwave and hot, dry conditions in parts of the US Plains, futures markets have rallied but physical premiums in the Black Sea are contained by comfortable global supply and still‑strong Russian export projections. Fresh data pointing to record‑near Russian shipments and a small upward revision in global wheat output limit weather risk premia despite local stress in France and Germany. In this environment, buyers continue to scale into dips on futures while negotiating aggressively on Black Sea and EU cash, with nearby basis under pressure.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR/tonne using recent EUR/USD levels around 1.14 for CBOT-linked quotations.   

MATIF front‑month milling wheat eased on Friday, following a pullback in Chicago as traders judged that the intense EU heatwave is unlikely to cause broad crop damage.  CBOT wheat had rallied earlier in the week on US Plains heat, but values slipped as forecasts pointed to limited yield loss and attention shifted back to large Black Sea supply. 

Supply & Demand

Russian export projections continue to anchor global supply sentiment. A leading Russian grain shipper now sees 2025/26 wheat exports near 47.7 million tonnes versus 42.2 million last season, confirming another very large export surplus.  The International Grains Council has nudged global wheat production 1 million tonnes higher to 821 million tonnes, largely on Russia, reinforcing the view of a comfortable world balance. 

In the Black Sea, European (Constanta/Varna/Burgas) milling wheat around 12.5% protein recently set a key regional benchmark at about 240 USD/t FOB for July loading, out‑pricing normalized Ukrainian offers at roughly the same level after quality adjustments.  With Ukrainian CPT and FOB values in the low‑180s EUR/t for 11–12.5% protein, the region remains highly competitive into Mediterranean and MENA demand, which caps upside for EU ports.

On demand, EU export interest has slowed as high MATIF-linked offers erode price advantage versus Black Sea origins.  Importers have become more patient given ample offers from Russia and Ukraine, favoring spot and short‑haul purchases rather than forward coverage.

Weather snapshot (DE, FR, UA, US)

Germany and France are under an intense heatwave, with maximum temperatures near 36–38 °C through 28 June before a cooldown and thunderstorms early next week.  As much of the wheat in Western Europe is already at late filling or heading toward maturity, analysts expect quality and yield impacts to be limited overall, though local protein gains and test‑weight risks cannot be ruled out. 

In Ukraine, the outlook for the next three days is very warm and mainly dry with highs of 28–34 °C across key grain belts.  These conditions are broadly favorable for ripening and early harvest, supporting a timely export program from Black Sea ports. In the US Plains (Kansas), forecasts point to hot, dry and breezy weather, with temperatures in the mid‑30s °C, accelerating harvest progress but also adding minor stress to any late fields. 

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Global balance: The combination of a larger Russian crop and only localized EU heat damage keeps the 2025/26 global wheat balance comfortably supplied, limiting sustained rallies. 
• Black Sea competitiveness: With FOB values near 240 USD/t for high‑protein CVB wheat and Ukrainian normalized offers around this level, Black Sea remains the marginal price setter for milling wheat into key import markets. 
• EU export headwinds: High MATIF levels and stronger euro‑denominated FOB quotes have reduced EU export momentum, with traders reporting slower physical flows and fund length unwinding in recent weeks. 
• Speculative flows: Recent CBOT weakness reflects profit‑taking after a weather‑driven rally, as managed money adjusts positions on confirmation of large Black Sea supply and limited US weather damage. 

3–7 day outlook & trading ideas

• Producers (DE/FR/UA): Use current strength in MATIF‑linked and German feed prices to add incremental hedges on 10–20% of remaining unpriced old and early new‑crop wheat. Focus on milling qualities where basis remains relatively firm.
• Consumers (feed and flour mills in DE/FR): Stagger purchases and target price breaks linked to CBOT/MATIF setbacks, but avoid being under‑covered into Q4 given persistent geopolitical and freight risks in the Black Sea.
• Traders: Consider relative value plays: short MATIF vs long Black Sea/Ukrainian physical where logistics allow, as the spread remains historically wide versus current competitiveness of Black Sea FOB offers.

3‑day regional price indication (directional)

• DE (feed EXW north): Slightly firmer bias as heatwave headlines persist, but capped by weak export pull.
• FR (milling FOB Rouen/Atlantic): Broadly sideways to slightly softer, tracking MATIF and heavy Black Sea competition.
• UA (CPT/FOB Black Sea): Mostly stable; abundant nearby supply and favorable weather argue for tight ranges.
• US (Gulf/PNW linked to CBOT): Two‑way trade, with modest downside risk if hot Plains weather fails to translate into clear yield losses.