Wheat Prices Hold Firm in DE and UA as Black Sea Offers Ease

Ukrainian wheat export prices are edging lower on FOB Odesa, while domestic FCA/CPT values and German feed wheat remain broadly steady near recent highs. Competitive Black Sea offers and comfortable EU supplies cap rallies, but firm Paris milling wheat futures keep a floor under German prices. Overall trading in both Germany and Ukraine is calm, with buyers largely covered for nearby needs and watching futures, currency and logistics rather than chasing additional volume. Weather in key regions looks mostly benign in the very short term, so price action is driven more by export competition and speculative flows than by fresh crop worries.

Prices

German feed wheat EXW in northern Germany is assessed broadly steady to slightly softer in mid-September, mirroring a modest pullback from recent peaks but still supported by firm Euronext (MATIF) milling wheat futures and steady compound feed demand. Domestic feed wheat indicators for September are reported around EUR 200–205/t nationally, aligning with current cash levels.

Against this backdrop, our latest quotation for feed wheat EXW Drentwede (DE) stands at EUR 0.243/kg, equivalent to EUR 243/t, up from EUR 0.24/kg a day earlier, confirming that spot values in northern Germany remain near the upper end of the national range.

In Ukraine, our Black Sea export benchmarks from Odesa show a clear softening week-on-week: wheat 12.5% protein FOB Odesa is down from EUR 0.144/kg to EUR 0.138/kg, wheat 10.5% protein FOB Odesa from EUR 0.147/kg to EUR 0.136/kg, and 11.0% protein FOB Odesa from EUR 0.135/kg to EUR 0.126/kg. At the same time, FCA Kyiv/Odesa and CPT Odesa prices for milling and feed wheat have been largely flat to slightly weaker, indicating that most of the pressure is being absorbed at the export interface rather than on farm.

Supply & Demand

German wheat fundamentals remain comfortable following a broadly average 2026 harvest, with no major yield shocks reported in recent days. Regional market commentary from western Germany notes that milling wheat demand from local mills is muted, as coverage is good, while feed grain demand had recently picked up on weak maize prospects but is now easing back to more normal levels.

Across the EU, feed use of wheat in 2026/27 is expected to stay high due to ample availability and relatively competitive pricing versus alternative grains. This underpins a solid demand base for feed wheat in Germany, even as buyers show little urgency to extend coverage at current elevated levels.

For Ukraine, the export program continues to pivot around the Black Sea sea corridor and alternative Danube and land routes. While the most recent logistics and volume data are older, they highlight the structural shift towards diversified export channels from Odesa and other deep-water ports, which has increased competition into destination markets and contributed to the current soft tone in Black Sea wheat offers.

Weather Snapshot: DE & UA

In northern Germany (Lower Saxony region), the current 7‑day outlook points to relatively mild late‑September conditions, with moderate temperatures, limited rainfall and no acute weather stress for standing crops or autumn fieldwork. This supports good progress of winter wheat sowing and leaves near‑term price action more dependent on market factors than on weather scares.

For southern Ukraine and the Odesa region, short‑term forecasts indicate seasonally warm, mostly dry weather with only scattered showers. Such conditions are generally favorable for the completion of field operations and wheat sowing, while posing no immediate threat to the harvested 2026 crop. With no weather premium on the horizon, export values from Odesa are likely to remain primarily driven by freight, corridor risk perception and competition from other Black Sea origins.

External Drivers

On international exchanges, CBOT wheat futures slipped slightly on September 18, reflecting a lack of fresh bullish catalysts and ongoing competition from Black Sea supplies. Euronext (MATIF) milling wheat, however, has firmed modestly after earlier corrections, helping to stabilize EU producer prices even as physical trade flows remain thin.

German advisory bodies report September indicative feed wheat values in a higher range than earlier in the year, confirming the strong recovery in producer prices since summer despite recent minor setbacks. At the same time, competitive feed wheat offers around the Black Sea (e.g. Constanța, Romania) are also showing slight declines, signaling a broader softening of regional export benchmarks that feeds back into Ukrainian FOB pricing.

Trading Outlook (Next 3–5 Days)

• Germany (DE): With EXW Drentwede feed wheat at EUR 0.243/kg and buyers broadly covered, the near‑term bias is sideways to mildly lower. Sellers should consider incremental sales on any further upticks in Paris futures, while buyers can afford to stay patient and target minor dips.
• Ukraine (UA): FOB Odesa wheat values have softened notably week‑on‑week. Exporters should lock in volumes where logistics are secured, as downside from here appears more limited without a new wave of aggressive offers, while importers may use current levels to extend short‑term coverage.
• Spread DE vs. UA: The widening price gap between higher‑priced German feed wheat and cheaper Ukrainian export offers supports continued demand for Black Sea origin into deficit EU regions, which may cap German rallies but also underline a competitive floor for Ukrainian farmers.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication

• Germany – EXW Drentwede feed wheat: Likely to trade in a narrow range around EUR 0.243/kg, with a slight downside bias if Black Sea pressure persists and Paris futures ease.
• Ukraine – FCA/CPT Odesa milling & feed wheat: After the recent step down in FOB values, inland prices are expected to move largely sideways, with any further weakness modest as long as export channels function normally.
• Ukraine – FOB Odesa wheat: Short‑term tone remains soft but stabilizing; prices should hover near current levels with limited additional downside unless new negative news on freight or export competition emerges.