Wheat under pressure: MATIF weakens as Black Sea offers stay soft

Wheat prices remain under moderate downward pressure, with MATIF milling wheat hovering near recent lows while CBOT drifts slightly lower. The forward curve still shows a gentle carry into 2027–2028, reflecting comfortable global supply and subdued nearby tightness.

The international cash market mirrors this softness: recent FOB offers from France, the US and Ukraine are largely flat week-on-week, signalling limited spot demand and strong competition from Black Sea origins. Weather risks in key producing regions are being watched, but for now they add only a modest risk premium rather than triggering a sustained rally. Overall, the market tone is weak to sideways, with downside limited by already discounted price levels.

📈 Prices & Curve Structure

On Euronext (MATIF), May 2026 milling wheat is indicated at about EUR 191.5/t, with September 2026 at EUR 213.5/t and December 2026 at EUR 222.75/t. Further out, March 2027 trades near EUR 228/t and May 2027 around EUR 230.75/t, before easing slightly to EUR 227.5/t for September 2027. The 2028–2029 strip holds in a relatively narrow EUR 233–239/t range, confirming a gently upward-sloping curve rather than an inverted market.

On CBOT, May 2026 SRW wheat closed around 624.5 USc/bu, with July 2026 at 634.75 USc/bu and December 2026 at 670.5 USc/bu. Converted to roughly EUR, this places nearby CBOT values in the low EUR 200s per tonne, broadly aligned with MATIF. ICE feed wheat in the UK is somewhat cheaper, with May 2026 around GBP 188/t (approximately low EUR 200s/t), underlining a globally competitive feed segment.

Contract / Market	Price (EUR/t)	Comment
MATIF May 2026	≈ 191.5	Near recent lows, weak nearby demand
MATIF Sep 2026	≈ 213.5	Clear carry vs. May
CBOT May 2026 (SRW)	≈ low 200s (EUR/t)	Soft after recent slide
ICE Feed Wheat May 2026	≈ low 200s (EUR/t)	Competitive feed alternative

🌍 Supply, Demand & Cash Market Signals

Recent cash indications confirm a soft, but not collapsing, physical market. French 11.0% protein wheat FOB Paris is quoted around EUR 0.27/kg (≈ EUR 270/t), unchanged between 24 April and 1 May. US 11.5% protein wheat on a CBOT basis, FOB US Gulf, is around EUR 0.19/kg (≈ EUR 190/t), also steady over the same period. Ukrainian 11.0–12.5% wheat FOB Odesa trades at EUR 0.17–0.18/kg (≈ EUR 170–180/t), maintaining a clear discount to EU and US origins.

FCA prices in Ukraine (Kyiv and Odesa) are equally stable, with 9.5–11.5% protein wheat mostly in the EUR 0.23–0.25/kg band. This pattern points to ongoing export competition from the Black Sea, where ample supplies and logistical normalization keep offers aggressive. Combined with subdued import demand in many destination markets, this caps rallies on MATIF and CBOT and encourages buyers to continue hand-to-mouth purchasing rather than extending coverage aggressively.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Context

The forward price structure on MATIF—from EUR 191.5/t nearby to roughly EUR 230–239/t into 2027–2028—signals that traders see no imminent shortage but do price in some long‑term uncertainty on yields and costs. Global balance sheets remain comfortable, and the current weakness in wheat contrasts with firmer moves in maize and soy noted in recent European market commentary, underlining relative demand softness for wheat.

Weather remains an important watchpoint, especially in the US Plains and Black Sea region. Latest US guidance for early May highlights episodes of convective activity and locally heavy rain in parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, which could help replenish soil moisture but also delay fieldwork in some areas. For now, these signals add only a modest risk premium, and futures remain more responsive to macro sentiment and currency moves than to specific crop threats.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

With MATIF May 2026 near EUR 191.5/t and a visible carry to later contracts, the market appears to be consolidating at the lower end of its recent range. Recent analysis of Euronext quotes around EUR 194–196/t for May and just above EUR 210/t for September underscores that current levels are soft but not collapsing, reflecting a pause after earlier short‑covering rallies.

• Importers (MENA, Asia): Consider incrementally extending Q2–Q3 2026 coverage while MATIF and CBOT sit close to recent lows and Black Sea FOB remains discounted. Splitting volumes across origins can hedge logistics and geopolitical risk.
• Exporters (EU, Black Sea): With flat or slightly weaker FOB values and strong competition from Ukraine, focus on basis management and logistics efficiency rather than outright price levels. Deferred hedging on the higher‑priced 2027–2028 MATIF contracts may lock in better margins.
• Producers (EU, US): Nearby prices look unattractive for heavy selling. Structured strategies (e.g. selling a portion against Sep/Dec 2026 while keeping upside via options) could balance income security with participation in any weather‑driven rally.
• Short‑term traders: The gently upward curve and repeated failure to break significantly below EUR 190/t suggest a range‑trading bias in the near term, with tight stops advised given headline sensitivity around weather and Black Sea logistics.

📉 3‑Day Price Indication (EUR)

Over the next three trading days, wheat markets are likely to trade sideways with a slight downward bias unless fresh weather or geopolitical headlines emerge:

• MATIF milling wheat (front month): Expected to fluctuate roughly in the EUR 188–198/t band.
• CBOT SRW (nearby, in EUR/t): Likely to hold in the low EUR 200s/t, tracking currency moves and US weather updates.
• Black Sea FOB (11–12.5% protein): Indications expected to remain in the EUR 170–185/t range, keeping competitive pressure on EU and US origins.