Almonds Defy Dry Fruit Slump as Indian Rupee Weakens and California Tightens

Almond prices are edging higher in India despite broader weakness in dry fruits, as tight California supply and a weaker rupee underpin import costs and keep spot availability constrained. Seasonal demand headwinds cap the upside, but the near-term balance of risks still tilts mildly bullish, especially for buyers exposed to India-linked flows. India’s wholesale almond market in Delhi is diverging from the recent correction in raisins and other dry fruits. California-origin kernels (badam giri) firmed modestly on 11 May 2026 as importers stepped back from aggressive selling and buyers accepted slightly higher levels. With California’s exportable surplus already heavily committed for 2025–26 and the rupee hovering near historical lows against the US dollar, the market is transitioning from a purely demand-driven phase to one defined by disciplined supply and currency costs rather than speculation.

Prices & Spreads

India’s Delhi wholesale market saw California almond kernels quoted around USD 8.83–8.94 per kg on 11 May 2026, up from about USD 8.72–8.78 per kg in the previous session. Converted at roughly 1 USD ≈ 0.85 EUR, this implies a move from about EUR 7.41–7.46/kg to roughly EUR 7.51–7.60/kg — a small but notable firming against a weak backdrop for other dry fruits. Current export offers for US and Spanish kernels in early May show a generally stable to slightly softer tone in euro terms, especially for European-origin product, reflecting more comfortable local supply compared with California’s tighter balance. The Indian firmness therefore appears more closely tied to supply allocation and FX rather than a broad global rally. Globally, the mild easing in benchmark FOB/FAS offers suggests that India’s firmer Delhi levels are partly a local phenomenon driven by currency and distribution constraints rather than a broad surge in origin prices.

Supply, Demand & Currency

On the supply side, India’s dependence on US almonds — particularly from California’s Central Valley, which delivers roughly 80% of global output — is amplifying the impact of a tighter-than-expected exportable surplus in the 2025–26 marketing year. Variable weather during the critical bloom and nut development phases has limited discretionary spot availability, with much of the crop already locked into long-term contracts. This tighter origin balance is translating into a reluctance among exporters and Indian importers to discount aggressively, especially for prompt positions into Delhi. Spot allocations for opportunistic buyers are thinner than usual, and modest price increases are being absorbed when buyers need to cover near-term requirements, as the latest Delhi move demonstrates. On the demand side, India is entering a seasonally softer period for premium dry fruits. High temperatures reduce household consumption of calorie-dense snacks, while institutional users in confectionery and mithai manage stocks conservatively. Normally this would weigh more heavily on prices, but two offsetting factors are keeping almonds supported. The first is the rupee, which is trading weak near INR 95 per US dollar, raising the landed cost of new consignments despite relatively steady dollar-denominated offers. The second is the limited substitutability of California almonds: unlike walnuts, where grey-channel flows have undercut formal imports, California almonds’ distinctive appearance and flavour profile make them harder to replace with cheaper alternatives, allowing the segment to resist the wider dry fruit downturn.

Fundamentals & Weather Context

California’s 2025–26 almond fundamentals remain defined by a narrower exportable surplus and disciplined forward selling. A large share of the crop has already been committed to long-term contracts, leaving less volume available for spot or opportunistic buyers, including Indian traders who rely on flexible shipments into Delhi. Recent weather in California’s Central Valley through early May has been broadly favourable for post-bloom development, with near-seasonal temperatures and limited rainfall interruptions in key growing areas such as Fresno and Bakersfield. This reduces immediate concerns about a major production shock but does not loosen the current marketing-year balance, which is already set by earlier crop conditions and prior sales. In India, domestic logistics and stocking patterns remain broadly normal, but the broader dry fruit complex is still under pressure from cheaper walnut arrivals through informal channels. Almonds are comparatively insulated: their distinct grading, sizing and visual quality make mislabelling harder, and quality-conscious retail and institutional buyers remain loyal to established California and Spanish origins, supporting premiums relative to other nuts.

2–4 Week Outlook

Over the next two to four weeks, the most likely scenario is cautious stability with a slight upward bias for almond kernels delivered into India. California’s tight exportable surplus and the weak rupee should continue to provide a solid floor for CIF and ex-wholesale prices. At the same time, India’s seasonal demand lull and ongoing competitive pressure from cheaper dry fruits will limit the scope for sharp rallies. Any additional firming is likely to be incremental and event-driven — for example, short-term procurement linked to regional festivals, weddings or institutional restocking — rather than the start of a sustained bull market. For European buyers sourcing via India or competing with Indian demand, the current price band appears to reflect genuine fundamental support instead of speculative froth. Forward coverage at or near today’s levels looks reasonable insurance against further modest upside, especially for higher-value confectionery and branded retail applications.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Importers into India: Maintain disciplined offers and avoid heavy forward discounting. With rupee weakness and tight California allocation, spot inventories should be managed carefully; use minor dips for selective restocking rather than waiting for a broad correction that fundamentals do not currently justify.
• European buyers: Consider layering in forward purchases at current EUR levels, particularly for California kernels, to hedge against further currency-driven or supply-led firmness ahead of stronger autumn and winter demand.
• California and Spanish exporters: Keep a firm but flexible offer stance for nearby shipments. Priority should be given to reliable long-term customers, with room to adjust pricing once clearer indications on the next crop and Indian rupee trajectory emerge.
• Industrial users (confectionery, bakery, ice cream): Lock in a portion of requirements for the next 1–2 months, balancing stable supply security with the option to benefit from any brief, demand-led softness later in the summer.

Short-Term Price Indication (3-Day View)

• Delhi wholesale (India, California kernels): Sideways to slightly firmer in EUR terms, with any further gains likely modest and tied to FX and importer selling behaviour.
• US export markets (FAS/FOB California equivalents): Broadly stable in EUR, with a slight soft tone on benchmark offers offset by currency moves and tight spot allocation.
• European FOB (Spain, mixed varieties): Mildly soft bias in the very short term as regional supply remains comfortable, but downside appears limited given global fundamentals.