Almond Prices Steady but Weather and Supply Signals Turn More Mixed

Almond kernel prices in both Spain and the US are broadly steady at the end of May, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves, but underlying supply signals and regional weather patterns point to a more finely balanced market into early June. Global trade flows show softer recent US shipments and firm downstream demand in key destinations such as India, while Spain heads into a larger 2026 crop. For now, this combination caps any strong rally but supports a floor under current EUR prices, especially for premium Marcona and organic Nonpareil grades.

Prices & Differentials

Using current market levels converted to EUR (approx. 1 USD = 0.92 EUR):

Spanish FOB indications are broadly aligned with recent interior spot assessments for Marcona and Guara types in Ebro and other Spanish exchanges, suggesting a stable domestic basis despite the approaching larger harvest.

Supply, Demand & Weather Drivers (ES & US)

Spain (ES)

• Supply: Andalusia, Spain’s key almond region, is projected to lift 2026 almond production by about 18% year on year to nearly 47,000 tonnes, mainly from expanded planted area. This reinforces Spain’s role as the EU’s main almond origin.
• Localized damage: Severe late‑March frost in northern Granada destroyed much of the crop there, hitting organic orchards particularly hard, but the impact is regional and does not offset the broader Andalusian increase.
• Weather: Late‑May conditions across Mediterranean Spain are seasonally warm and mostly dry, supportive for nut fill, with no short‑term weather shock reported that would materially change the 2026 harvest outlook.

United States (US – California)

• Crop size: The latest USDA/NASS subjective forecast pegs the 2026 California almond crop at about 2.7 billion lbs, roughly 1% below last year and pointing to a broadly steady but not burdensome supply profile.
• Bloom & pollination: Industry analysis highlights uneven bloom and some heat‑related pollination issues this season, raising the risk that the final crop could land below early estimates, which would be modestly price‑supportive if confirmed.
• Shipments & demand: After strong March exports, more recent reporting points to weaker US shipments in April and firm domestic and import prices in India, signalling resilient end‑user demand but tighter available export supply at the margin.
• Short‑term weather: No major late‑May weather threats (e.g. frost or excessive rain) are flagged in key California almond districts; current conditions are seasonally warm, allowing crop development to proceed normally.

Market Sentiment & Fundamentals

• Balanced but cautious: With Spain heading for a larger 2026 crop and California forecast only slightly below last year, the global almond balance looks broadly adequate, but not burdensome, especially once slower US shipment growth is factored in.
• Cash vs. paper: Physical differentials between US and Spanish origins remain relatively narrow for standard kernels, with premiums preserved for Marcona and organic Nonpareil. This structure reflects steady confectionery and snack demand in Europe and India.
• Logistics & costs: Freight and insurance costs remain elevated on some Middle East and Asia lanes due to geopolitical tensions, adding volatility risk to export realizations but not yet forcing a decisive global price break in EUR terms.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Buyers (EU/ES): Consider covering near‑term needs for Marcona and organic Nonpareil at current flat prices, as quality premiums are well supported and downside from here appears limited ahead of more concrete harvest data in Spain and updated objective crop figures in California.
• Importers (US origin into EU): With US Carmel offers steady in EUR/kg and some risk of a smaller realized California crop, staggered buying on minor dips rather than waiting for a significant correction looks prudent.
• Producers (ES & US): Use current stable prices to advance modest pre‑harvest sales rather than over‑committing; maintain flexibility in case weather or shipment data in June tighten balances further and lift premiums.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Spain (ES, FOB Madrid): For the coming three trading days, almond kernel prices in EUR/kg are expected to remain stable across Marcona, Valencia and Guara grades, with only very small +/- 1–2% moves possible on local liquidity.
• United States (US, FAS/FOB California reference): EUR‑converted values for standard Carmel and organic Nonpareil are also expected to trade sideways, with limited room for downside and only modest upside potential tied to any fresh shipment or weather headlines.