Hazelnuts in Tight Balance: Turkish Supply Shock Meets Softer Spot Prices

Global hazelnut fundamentals remain historically tight after Turkey’s 2025/26 crop collapse, but short‑term spot prices in early June 2026 show a mild correction as buyers resist record levels and wait for clearer signals. The market is finely balanced: any renewed industrial buying wave or weather scare could quickly reverse the recent softening. The current season is defined by sharply lower Turkish output, limited farmer selling and very low global stocks, offset only partly by stronger crops in Chile and the U.S. Against this backdrop, European buyers are covering only nearby needs, and Turkish FOB kernel prices have edged down since May despite the fundamental deficit. Weather for June in key Mediterranean hazelnut regions looks seasonally warm with mixed rainfall, keeping yield risk on the radar but not yet alarming.

Prices – Record High in Theory, Slightly Softer in Practice

In October 2025, hazelnut prices in Europe reached record levels, with Turkish raw kernels 11–13 mm around 16.80 EUR/kg DDP and roasted kernels at roughly 18.60 EUR/kg, after months of strong gains. Since then, the structural deficit has persisted, but resistance from confectionery and chocolate demand has capped further spikes.

Fresh offer data from Turkey on 1 June 2026 show FOB Istanbul prices for natural kernels easing modestly versus mid‑May: 11–13 mm at about 7.96 EUR/kg and 13–15 mm at about 8.33 EUR/kg, down roughly 0.15 EUR/kg over two weeks. Roasted meal and diced kernels have followed a similar path, slipping by about 0.2–0.3 EUR/kg over May, signalling a short‑term breather rather than a trend reversal.

Supply & Demand – Turkish Collapse, Limited Global Buffer

The current season is shaped by a sharp drop in Turkish production: 2025/26 output is estimated at only about 250,000 tons (kernel basis), down 36% from roughly 392,500 tons in 2024/25 and at the lowest level since 2014. Farmers are largely refusing to sell at the Turkish Grain Board’s reference price, keeping TMO warehouses almost empty and shifting price power to growers and exporters.

Italy’s crop is weaker than initially hoped, particularly in central and southern regions, while Georgia now contributes a consistent 20,000 tons of good‑quality kernels that were previously under‑reported. Strong increases from Chile (+64% year‑on‑year to around 40,500 tons) and the U.S. (+13% to nearly 44,900 tons) help to offset some of the Turkish shortfall but cannot fully compensate for the global decline.

Updated world production for 2025/26 is projected around 454,400 tons (kernel basis), about 19% below the prior season, with ending stocks falling towards 50,000 tons. This leaves no real buffer against further weather disruptions, quality losses or logistical issues. Demand from chocolate and confectionery has already slowed at high price levels, but any meaningful recovery in buying could rapidly tighten availability again.

Fundamentals – Producers Hold the Keys

In Turkey, the official TMO intervention price for in‑shell hazelnuts remains clearly below prevailing free‑market levels, reinforcing farmers’ decisions to hold back stock. Exporters report very limited spot availability, uneven offers and a standstill in large‑scale contracting, as many prefer to carry positions rather than sell into a softening but still fundamentally tight market.

Randuman issues (with kernel yields often below 45%) and a higher share of small calibres further reduce effective supply of standard 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm kernels. At the same time, accumulations of small sizes and lower‑grade material are slowly building, providing a modest relief valve for price pressure in lower‑spec segments but not for mainstream industrial demand.

On the demand side, European buyers remain cautious, covering only short‑term needs and delaying larger commitments in the hope of further price corrections. This stand‑off, combined with structurally low stocks, explains why the market can show short‑term softness in FOB offers while still being fundamentally tight and highly sensitive to any new demand or weather shock.

Weather Outlook – Watchful but Not Yet Alarming

For June to early summer 2026, seasonal outlooks for northern Italy (Piedmont/Langhe) and much of continental Europe point to above‑normal temperatures with precipitation trending slightly below average, though some models still indicate intermittent storms and localized heavy showers. This pattern is typical of recent summers and does not yet signal a clear, widespread drought threat for hazelnut orchards.

In Turkey’s Black Sea region, long‑range forecasts suggest a relatively warm early summer with variable rainfall following an unusually cool and wet spring in several parts of the country. This increases uncertainty over flowering and nut‑setting conditions but, at this stage, provides no strong evidence of another major yield shock on top of the already poor 2025/26 crop.

Forecast & Trading Outlook – Tight Market, Shallow Dip

Short term (next 1–3 months), the hazelnut market is likely to remain firm but range‑bound: the small price correction visible in June FOB offers reflects demand rationing rather than a new surplus. As long as farmers keep holding stocks and TMO remains largely sidelined on procurement, any renewed buying wave from major industrial users could quickly trigger another leg up in prices.

Medium term (into Q4 2026), the structural deficit and low global stocks argue for continued price support, especially for standard calibres and higher randuman lots. Only a clearly above‑trend 2026 Turkish crop, combined with strong northern hemisphere yields, would materially ease the balance, and current information does not yet justify such an assumption.

Practical Pointers for Market Participants

• Industrial buyers: Consider layering in coverage on price dips around current FOB levels, especially for core 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm kernels, while avoiding over‑commitment if demand remains soft.
• Traders and shellers: Maintain disciplined inventory management; the downside appears limited by structural tightness, but liquidity can dry up quickly if buyers step back.
• Premium origins (Georgia, EU): Continue to command a quality premium; use Turkish softness selectively but preserve pricing for large calibres and high yields.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (Key References in EUR)

• Turkey FOB Istanbul kernels (11–13 mm, 13–15 mm): Slightly soft to sideways; limited downside as sellers resist deeper cuts.
• Georgia FCA Warsaw kernels: Largely stable with firm undertone; premiums over Turkish origin likely to persist.
• DDP Europe processed products (roasted, paste): Stable at historically high levels; any uptick in chocolate demand could quickly re‑tighten offers.