📈 Sugar Market Report – February 20, 2025
📌 Sugar Prices Rise Amid Global Supply Concerns
📍 ICE Sugar No.5 futures continued their upward trend, with the May 2025 contract rising 1.40% to $555.40/t. European sugar prices also increased, ranging between €0.56/kg and €0.58/kg FCA EU. The ongoing global supply squeeze, declining sugar production in key regions, and high ethanol demand keep prices firm.
📊 1. Market Overview: ICE Sugar No.5 Futures
| Contract | Previous Price (USD/t) | Opening Price (USD/t) | High (USD/t) | Low (USD/t) | Closing Price (USD/t) | Change (USD/t) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 547.60 | 547.30 | 555.80 | 546.70 | 555.40 | +7.80 | +1.40% |
| Aug 25 | 528.70 | 528.70 | 536.30 | 528.20 | 535.80 | +7.10 | +1.33% |
| Oct 25 | 518.60 | 518.60 | 525.10 | 517.80 | 524.90 | +6.30 | +1.20% |
| Dec 25 | 513.10 | 513.50 | 519.00 | 512.90 | 518.90 | +5.80 | +1.12% |
| Mar 26 | 512.60 | 513.60 | 518.10 | 512.70 | 518.20 | +5.60 | +1.08% |
📈 European Sugar Prices (FCA EU):
- Current price range: €0.56/kg – €0.58/kg
- Last month: €0.53/kg – €0.56/kg (+5.36%)
🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Supply Factors
🔹 India’s Sugar Production Decline:
- India’s sugar output is forecasted to fall 17% in the 2024/25 season to 26.52 million tonnes.
- Closing stocks could drop below 4.50 million tonnes by September 30, 2025.
- Weather issues and disease outbreaks have severely impacted sugarcane yields.
🔹 EU Sugar Market – Tightening Stocks & Rising Prices:
- The EU’s sugar consumption has declined, but production shortages keep prices elevated.
- EU sugar imports from third countries remain high, but exports are stagnating.
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🔹 Brazil’s Export Delays:
- Shipping bottlenecks in Brazil are slowing down sugar exports.
- Ethanol demand remains high, diverting more sugarcane away from raw sugar production.
🔮 3. Sugar Price Forecast (Next 3 Days: Feb 21–23, 2025)
| Contract | Current Price (USD/t) | Forecast – Feb 21 | Forecast – Feb 22 | Forecast – Feb 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 555.40 | 558.20 (+0.5%) | 560.00 (+0.3%) | 562.50 (+0.4%) |
| Aug 25 | 535.80 | 537.60 (+0.3%) | 540.10 (+0.5%) | 542.80 (+0.5%) |
| Oct 25 | 524.90 | 526.50 (+0.3%) | 529.00 (+0.5%) | 531.50 (+0.5%) |
⏳ Key Takeaway: Prices are expected to remain firm due to tightening global stocks and high ethanol demand.
⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Trend for Key Sugar-Producing Regions
🇧🇷 Brazil:
📌 Wetter remains favourable, but logistics delays are affecting exports.
📆 Forecast (Feb 21–Mar 6):
- 🌡️ Temperatures: 27–31°C
- 🌧️ Precipitation: Moderate rainfall in key cane areas, slowing harvest.
🇮🇳 India:
📌 Severe sugarcane disease outbreaks affecting output.
📆 Forecast (Feb 21–Mar 6):
- 🌡️ Temperatures: 30–35°C (above seasonal norms).
- 🌧️ Dry conditions in key production areas, impacting late-season yields.
🇹🇭 Thailand:
📌 Low river levels reduce irrigation, affecting cane growth.
📆 Forecast (Feb 21–Mar 6):
- 🌡️ Temperatures: 28–33°C
- 🌧️ Minimal rain, raising supply concerns.
📉 5. Long-Term Sugar Market Data – EU Overview
| Year | Production (Mio. t) | Consumption (Mio. t) | Ethanol Use (Mio. t) | Imports (Mio. t) | Exports (Mio. t) | Ending Stocks (Mio. t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 16.3 | 17.5 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| 2022/23 | 15.8 | 17.3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| 2023/24 | 15.1 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 2.7 |
| 2024/25 (Forecast) | 15.5 | 16.5 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 2.9 |
🔍 Key Insights:
- EU sugar production is stabilizing after last year’s decline.
- Imports remain high as EU domestic output struggles to meet demand.
- Ethanol consumption continues to rise, tightening available sugar supplies.
🔍 6. Conclusion & Market Outlook
📉 Key Takeaways:
✅ Global sugar prices are rising due to lower production in India, Thailand, and Brazil.
✅ EU sugar stocks remain tight, keeping prices elevated.
✅ Ethanol production diverts more sugarcane, reducing supply for food markets.
🔮 Market Outlook (Next Weeks):
📌 Prices are expected to stay firm as global stocks remain tight.
📌 Watch for policy shifts in India and Brazil that may affect trade flows.
📌 EU buyers may continue to face higher prices due to limited imports.
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