Rapeseed Rebounds Sharply – Soybeans Benefit from Weak Dollar and Tighter Oil Balance

📈 Rapeseed Rebounds Sharply – Soybeans Benefit from Weak Dollar and Tighter Oil Balance

After recent losses, rapeseed and soybeans posted substantial gains. A weak U.S. dollar and reduced global vegetable oil stocks provided a fresh boost to oilseed markets.

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📊 Market Overview

📌 Euronext Rapeseed (MATIF)

Contract	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Daily Change	Weekly Change
May 2025	522.50	+10.50	–
August 2025	472.75	+3.00	-3.50 EUR (-0.75%)
November 2025	476.00	–	–

📌 ICE Canola (Winnipeg)

Contract	Closing Price (CAD/t)	Daily Change
May 2025	660.70	+6.70
November 2025	642.80	+4.40

📌 CBOT Soybeans

Contract	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Daily Change	Weekly Change
May 2025	1,042.75	+13.75	+65.75 ct (+6.7%)

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🌍 Market Drivers

• 📈 Strong Rapeseed Rebound:
  Old-crop rapeseed gained sharply at Euronext after a weak week. Stronger soybean oil, rising canola futures, and technical buying drove the rise.
• 📉 U.S. Ending Stocks Revised Lower:
  The USDA April WASDE reduced U.S. soybean ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 375 million bu, slightly below average market expectations (379 million bu).
• 🌍 Vegetable Oil Stocks Tighter:
  Despite rising soybean crush, the USDA lowered global vegetable oil output by 0.9 million tons to 228.1 million tons due to lower palm oil output in Southeast Asia.
  🌿 Global vegetable oil ending stocks: 28.96 million tons (370,000 tons less than March, 1.8 million tons below previous year).
• 📊 Investors Shift Positions:
  CFTC data shows funds increased net short positions in CBOT soybean futures/options by 20,600 contracts to 50,447.
  For soybean oil, net short positions were reversed into net long (30,125 contracts), supporting oil prices.
• 🚢 USDA Export Sales:
  U.S. exporters sold 121,000 t of soybeans to unknown destinations – 55,000 t for 2024/25 and 66,000 t for 2025/26.

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Product	Expected Range	Outlook
Rapeseed (May 25)	517 – 530 EUR/t	↗️ Mildly bullish
Soybeans (May 25)	1,030 – 1,055 ct/bu	↗️ Stable to firm
Canola (May 25)	655 – 670 CAD/t	↗️ Slightly bullish

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⛅ 14-Day Weather Outlook

🇦🇷 Argentina

🌧️ Persistent rainfall is delaying harvest in key regions.
📍 Only 2.6% harvested (vs. 10% last year).

🇧🇷 Brazil

☀️ Stable weather in central and northern areas.
📍 Harvest progress: 87%, ahead of previous year.

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🧾 USDA Balance Sheet Snapshot

• U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks (2024/25 – WASDE April):
  🔻 375 million bu (down 5 million bu from March)
• Global Vegetable Oil Ending Stocks:
  🔻 28.96 million tons (1.8 million t below the previous year)