📉 Sugar Market Slips Again – Recovery Loses Steam Amid Soft Demand
After a sharp rebound on Thursday, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures edged lower on 11 April 2025. The May 2025 contract fell by 0.17% to USD 523.00/t (EUR 486.39/t), with most near-term contracts closing in the red. While back months ticked slightly higher, the market remains under pressure from weak demand and firm EU prices.
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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (11.04.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 523.00 | -0.17% | 486.39 |
| Aug 25 | 503.50 | -0.30% | 468.26 |
| Oct 25 | 498.10 | -0.30% | 463.23 |
| Dec 25 | 496.90 | -0.18% | 462.12 |
| Mar 26 | 498.40 | +0.08% | 462.51 |
| May 26 | 495.50 | +0.08% | 460.82 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🧭 Market Commentary
🔻 Correction Fades – Market Awaits Direction
– The Friday session showed no follow-through from Thursday’s speculative bounce.
– Most trading remains short-term and directionless – volatility is likely to continue.
🇪🇺 EU Spot Offers Still Rising
– Producers now quoting EUR 0.55–0.58/kg FCA for Q2 deliveries.
– Market participants expect a further push toward EUR 0.60/kg next week, despite softening global prices.
🛍️ Retail Pressure Remains
– Prices in Poland, Czech Republic, and Germany show no movement, with deep discounting still reported.
🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 10.04.2025)
Last checked: All prices verified within the last 3 days.
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) | Note/Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | Edeka | 0.69 € | Promotional price (recently expired) |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € | Standard shelf price |
| Austria | SPAR | 1.58 € | 0.79 €/500 g Staubzucker |
| Czech Rep. | Kaufland | 0.50 € | With Kaufland Card |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € | Promotional offer |
| UK | Tesco | 0.96 € | £0.82 Aldi Price Match |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.79 € | Bonus price |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (12–14 April 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr | 515 – 525 | 479 – 488 |
| 13 Apr | 513 – 523 | 477 – 487 |
| 14 Apr | 510 – 520 | 474 – 483 |
📌 Outlook:
Sideways to slightly weaker movement is likely, unless demand or supply headlines emerge.
📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Futures stable but directionless – waiting for fresh inputs.
❌ EU pricing continues to rise despite falling global levels.
📉 Buyers sceptical – disconnect between paper and physical market widening again.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Avoid long-term commitments at rising EU prices – market not aligned.
- 📦 Sellers: Try to lock in forward deals while prices are still supported technically.
- 📊 Traders: Be cautious – a breakdown below USD 510/t could trigger further selling.
📍 Sugar remains headline-driven, but fundamentals argue for caution.
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