Rape Market Update: Weather Shifts and Currency Moves Guide Cautious Optimism

The global rape (rapeseed/canola) market is currently characterized by a blend of cautious optimism and lingering concerns. Euronext rapeseed contracts closed Thursday nearly unchanged, slightly lifted by modest gains in the front-month August contract. In contrast, ICE Canola futures in Canada nudged higher despite ongoing worries over dry conditions on the prairies. An uptick in soybean interest at the CBOT following lower prices, bolstered by a softer US dollar, is lending indirect support, though Europe faces a headwind from a firmer euro and improved EU crop outlooks due to persistent rainfall from northern France to the Baltic.

While spring dryness in Europe has been greatly mitigated, Canadian growers continue to progress well with their canola sowing but remain anxious for rain to avoid future yield losses. Meanwhile, Malaysian palm oil futures remain volatile, reacting to shifting import tariffs and brisk Indian demand. On the speculative side, financial investors scaled down their net long positions slightly, indicating a degree of uncertainty. As harvest prospects improve across the EU and supply anxieties lessen, market participants are entering a phase marked by narrower trading ranges and a greater focus on upcoming weather developments.

📈 Rape and Canola Prices

Exchange	Contract	Latest Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Euronext Paris	Aug 25	478.50 EUR/t	+0.25 EUR	Neutral/Balanced
ICE Canada	Jul 25	698.90 CAD/t	+3.90 CAD	Mildly Bullish
ICE Canada	Nov 25	681.20 CAD/t	+4.30 CAD	Mildly Bullish
CBOT Soybeans (comparison)	Jul 25	1,045 cts/bu	+4.25 cts	Recovery buying

Spot Physical Offers

Origin	Type	Purity	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Change
France	Standard	–	Paris (FOB)	0.54	=
Ukraine	42% min oil	98%	Kyiv (FCA)	0.47	-0.02
Ukraine	42% min oil	98%	Odesa (FCA)	0.49	-0.02

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• European rapeseed markets are experiencing pressure from improved yield prospects after spring rainfall, especially across France, Germany, and the Baltic. Expectations point to a larger EU harvest in 2025.
• In Canada, the canola sowing pace is strong despite dry soils. Farmers are watching for rainfall to secure yield potential. The relatively high price of Canadian canola compared to Chicago soybeans also limits upside.
• US Soybean market activity—spurred by value buying and a weaker dollar—acts as a spillover influence, but favourable US Midwest weather tempers sustained rallies.
• Palm oil markets are volatile, supported by Indian buying and recent import tariff reductions, which may affect oilseed complex spreads.
• Speculator net-long position in Euronext rapeseed futures/options fell to 28,605 from 32,387 contracts, showing less bullish conviction.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• USDA Export Sales: Markets await USDA report; expected US soybean sales for 2024/25: 100,000–500,000t. Soy meal/oil sales estimates are also steady, offering little fresh bullish momentum.
• Commercial Positioning: Commercial participants trimmed short positions, suggesting less aggressive hedging into harvest.
• Relative Pricing: Canola remains pricey versus US soybeans, making additional price advances challenging without fresh demand catalysts.
• Palm Oil Imports: India’s robust demand for palm oil (May imports at 6-month high) may keep pressure on competing oilseed markets.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• EU (France, Germany, Baltic): Persistent rain forecast for the coming days reduces the risk from earlier spring dryness and should stabilise yield prospects for winter rapeseed crops.
• Canada (Prairies): Canola planting advancing under dry conditions. Weather models indicate a chance for scattered showers within 3-5 days, needed to preserve yield potential.
• US Midwest (Comparator): Weather remains favourable, capping oilseed price potential for now.

Weather Impact Chart

Region	Rainfall Outlook	Impact on Crop
EU (FR-DE-Baltic)	Above normal	Supports yield, bearish prices
Canada Prairies	Below normal (short-term); possible storms	Yield risk if rainfall delays continue

🌏 Production & Stocks Overview

• EU: Estimated 2025 production at/above last year’s 20 million tonnes, improved by recent rainfall.
• Canada: 2025 planting progressing; final output depends on June–July rainfall. Stocks are forecasted flat-to-lower if dryness persists.
• Ukraine: Ongoing exports at competitive prices, though weaker than prior months.
• China & India: Importing demand for oilseeds remains solid. India shows strong palm oil demand, pressuring rapeseed oil margins globally.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-Term: Range-bound trading expected; weather developments in Canada/Europe are key triggers.
• Producers: Consider forward hedging as weather improves and EU harvest approaches; upside risks appear limited in the absence of yield threats.
• Buyers: Use price weakness to secure coverage for late 2025, especially if Canadian rains materialise.
• Speculators: Monitor managed money positioning; recent liquidations imply less bullish momentum.
• Watch EU/Canada weather closely—shifts could quickly change price direction.

3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Contract	Direction	Target Range
Euronext Paris	Aug 25	Sideways to mildly lower	475 – 480 EUR/t
ICE Canada	Jul 25	Sideways	695 – 705 CAD/t
ICE Canada	Nov 25	Sideways	675 – 685 CAD/t

Note: Weather will be the key factor for short-term price shifts. Seasonal path favours lower volatility until harvest clarity increases.