The global sugar market faces a precarious period, driven by fluctuating supply prospects from India—the world’s second-largest sugar producer. Early data signals a marginal decline in sugarcane acreage for the 2025-26 season despite initial optimism from higher sowings in key states like Maharashtra and Karnataka. The drop is particularly pronounced in Uttar Pradesh, India’s top sugar state, raising concerns that even stable or increased regional acreages may not compensate for bigger structural issues. Industry voices are worried, noting that production for the 2024-25 season already trails the previous year, and that weather anomalies, persistent pest/disease risks, and uneven monsoon patterns could undermine the next harvest.
Major global exchanges have responded with mixed sentiment. Spot prices remain elevated, supported by the threat of underwhelming output from India and uncertainties elsewhere—while the USDA is betting on a substantial rebound, the reality on the ground remains fraught. Weather will be decisive, with India’s June–September monsoon likely shaping global supply chains. Recent rain patterns—although officially ‘normal to above normal’—have been erratic, hurting yield potential and stoking further volatility. All eyes are on India’s summer progress for further price action.
📈 Latest Market Prices
| Origin | Type | Location | Price (€/kg) | Change | Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CZ | ICUMSA 45, 0.16–0.8 mm | Vyškov | 0.57 | +0.02 | 2025-06-03 | Firm/Bullish |
| LT | ICUMSA 45, 0.2–1.2 mm, 99.7% | Mirijampole | 0.53 | 0.00 | 2025-06-02 | Stable |
| LT | ICUMSA 45, 0.2–1.2 mm, 99.7% | Mirijampole | 0.54 | 0.00 | 2025-06-02 | Stable |
| GB | ICUMSA 32, 0.3–0.6 mm | Norfolk | 0.56 | 0.00 | 2025-05-27 | Stable |
| UA | ICUMSA 45, 0.4–1.0 mm | Vinnytsia | 0.58 | 0.00 | 2025-05-27 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- India:
- Slight downward revision in total sugarcane area: 5.31mh (May 2025) vs. 5.34mh (May 2024).
- Uttar Pradesh: Sugarcane area down to 2.79mh from 2.88mh; final 2024-25 data also shows a decline to 2.59mh.
- Maharashtra and Karnataka report increased acreage, but recent production figures show significant year-on-year drops (e.g. Karnataka: 4.04mt vs. 5.14mt, as of May 31).
- Bihar, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Haryana also report marginal declines.
- Industry output for 2024-25 expected not to exceed 26.2mt (ex-ethanol), well below 31.95mt in 2023-24.
- USDA projects 2025-26 output at 35.3mt if favorable conditions persist—a view met with skepticism by local producers.
- Other large exporters:
- Brazil: Mildly supportive fundamentals, but less upside risk compared to India-driven market.
- Thailand: 2025 production outlook stable but still sensitive to Southeast Asian rainfall.
- Speculative drivers:
- Significant volatility from weather- and policy-driven headlines out of India.
- Net speculative positioning: Cautiously bullish, likely to react strongly to updates on India’s monsoon.
📊 Fundamentals at a Glance
| Country | 2023-24 Output (mt) | 2024-25 Est. (mt) | 2025-26 Forecast (mt) | Stocks (mt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 31.95 | 26.2 | USDA: 35.3 Ind. est.: risky |
Lower YoY |
| Brazil | 40.9 | 41.7 | 42.1 | Stable/Up |
| Thailand | 8.25 | 8.7 | 8.9 | Flat |
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Health
- India: Monsoon 2025 expected to be ‘normal to above normal’ by IMD, but distribution is uneven—key risk factor for consistent cane yields.
- Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka: Above-normal rainfall possible through June–September, but with monthly volatility risk that has hurt yields in past years.
- Pest/Disease: Persistent risk from Red Rot in UP due to CO-0238 variety; some mitigated by successful pest interventions early in the season.
🔁 Comparison to Last Report
- Situation broadly similar to last update: Weather and acreage risks remain paramount, but current production is even lower than previously projected.
- Industry skepticism on optimistic forecasts remains high; USDA estimate upgraded, but realization depends on favorable weather through monsoon period.
- Higher international prices reflect premium for uncertainty around Indian supply for 2025-26.
📆 Market Drivers & Trading Outlook
- Short-term risk: Weather volatility in India could drive sharp moves—stay alert for monthly IMD updates and progressive acreage revisions.
- Medium-term risk: Stocks remain tight; global buyers may need to cover forward amid continued uncertainty.
- For exporters: Hold hedges for upside, especially if India downgrades its output projections.
- For importers/processors: Secure cover for Q3–Q4 while prices are flat; premiums likely if India’s next output falls short.
- Speculators: Watch for price spikes on monsoon-related news or USDA/Indian government acreage revisions.
🗺️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Region | Last Price (€/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vyškov (CZ) | 0.57 | 0.56–0.58 | Strong undertone |
| Mirijampole (LT) | 0.53–0.54 | 0.53–0.55 | Flat to steady |
| Norfolk (GB) | 0.56 | 0.56–0.57 | Stable |
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Sugar Market: Bearish Pressure Mounts as Global Surplus Looms Ahead of 2025–26 Season
Sugar Prices Break Below Key Levels – Market Slumps Toward 460 USD/t
Sugar Market Stays Sweet: Steady Prices, Strong Stocks, and a Favorable Monsoon Lift Outlook
Sugar Futures Rebound Further – EU Factories Face Mounting Pressure Despite Global Lift
Sugar Market Recovers Further – Futures Rebound Continues Modestly