The sugar market has entered August 2025 with a delicate balancing act between supply regulation and subdued demand. The Department of Food and Public Distribution’s release of a 2.25 million metric ton domestic sugar sale quota marks a subtle tightening compared to July’s 2.45 million metric tons. This calculated reduction serves two purposes: ensuring stable retail prices during India’s approaching festive season and signaling responsive management to slowing off-take, with industry sources citing lackluster July sales due to reduced purchasing by traders and bulk buyers. Even as mills hold larger unsold inventories, the government’s cap of 100,000 tons per mill in August aims to maintain discipline and curb any potential price volatility or premature drawdowns on stocks. So far, the cumulative quota for 2024–25 has reached 22.50 million tons, a testament to the ongoing regulatory vigilance in India’s sugar sector.
While retail prices remain largely unchanged in Europe, current listings highlight stable to slightly firmer price action depending on region and origin. Amidst this backdrop, market participants are closely watching upcoming weather trends in the world’s major producing and consuming regions for signs of disruption or further supply/demand adjustments. The month ahead is poised to test both policy effectiveness and the capacity of mills and traders to adapt to evolving seasonal demand.
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📈 Prices
Origin | Location | Type | Purity | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LT | Mirijampole | ICUMSA 45, 0,2-1,2 mm | 99.7% | 0.55 | 0.55 | 2025-07-23 | Stable |
LT | Mirijampole | ICUMSA 45, 0,2-1,2 mm | 99.7% | 0.56 | 0.56 | 2025-07-23 | Stable |
GB | Norfolk | ICUMSA 32, 0,300-0,600 mm | – | 0.56 | 0.56 | 2025-07-18 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India’s August 2025 monthly domestic quota: 2.25 million tons (down 8.2% MoM).
- July sugar sale quota: 2.45 million tons.
- Annual quota for 2024–25 season so far: 22.50 million tons.
- Slow July sales: Offtake by traders and bulk buyers has decreased.
- Mills are expected to carry unsold stocks into August.
- Each mill capped at 100,000 tons for August; non-compliance in July may affect current allocations.
- Global raw sugar prices have shown mild upward movement in recent weeks amid Asian quota tightening (source: web search).
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Policy: Government is actively managing quotas to ensure availability and avoid spikes during festivities.
- Speculative Positioning: Managed money net longs on global sugar futures have increased marginally amid signs of tighter near-term supply (web data).
- Inventory: Higher-than-average unsold mill stocks could pressure forward prices if demand doesn’t pick up.
- Retail: EU and UK retail prices are steady; spot trade is fluid.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Growing Regions
- India: Monsoon progress remains normal as per latest forecasts, with minor regional variabilities. No major flooding or drought threats currently expected.
- Brazil: Recent weather remains favorable for harvest; expected to support strong Q3-Q4 exports.
- Thailand: Slightly below-average rainfall could trim output, but no acute deficit seen in short-term outlook.
- Africa: Sahel and southern Africa sugar regions report average-to-good growing conditions this season.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
Country | Est. 2024/25 Production (mn tons) | Stock-to-Use Ratio (%) | Key Notes |
---|---|---|---|
Brazil | 42.0 | 21 | Harvest in full swing; Exports up YoY |
India | 33.0 | 17 | Stable output, closely managed stocks |
Thailand | 8.5 | 15 | Low rainfall, but minimal risk to supply outlook |
EU | 15.8 | 19 | Prices steady, no major disruptions |
China | 10.0 | 13 | Increasing imports from Brazil and Pakistan |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Mills should monitor quota utilization closely, as government scrutiny remains intense and non-fulfillment could restrict future allocations.
- Traders are advised to watch for weather-related supply shocks in India and Thailand, which could quickly impact global prices due to thin spot market liquidity.
- End-users should consider locking in contracts for August–September if local offtake picks up, as tighter supply discipline may accelerate price firming.
- Exporters: With Brazil’s supplies robust, consider forward hedges to manage potential global price fluctuations later in Q3.
- Speculators: Risk of surprise price upside is moderate but rising if monsoon falters or Indian policy tightens further.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
Market | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range (EUR/kg) | Direction |
---|---|---|---|
Mirijampole (LT) | 0.55-0.56 | 0.54-0.57 | Sideways/Neutral |
Norfolk (GB) | 0.56 | 0.55-0.57 | Stable to slight upward bias |
Vyškov (CZ) | 0.54-0.57 | 0.54-0.57 | Stable |