Sugar Market Stays Firm Amid Festive Demand and Tight Supply: Price Trends, Supply Dynamics, and Outlook

The global sugar market is currently facing heightened volatility as prices continue their upward climb, driven by robust demand and constrained supply. On September 9, local market sugar prices surged by $0.60–1.20 per quintal, while jaggery (Gur) experienced a modest pullback due to waning demand. The bullish momentum in sugar is largely attributed to increased buying from stockiest and bulk buyers ahead of seasonal festivities, when consumption typically spikes. Conversely, jaggery prices have softened by $0.50–1.00 per quintal, with many traders citing profit-taking and low fresh demand at higher price levels.

Current sugar prices range between $47.00–49.00 per quintal, reflecting strong market sentiment and limited supply pipelines, while jaggery maintains a slightly lower band at $43.00–44.00 per quintal depending on regional quality and demand. Additional support for prices comes from the prospect of tight global stocks, weather-induced supply risks, and speculative positioning, especially as crop output remains uncertain in several major exporting countries. Short-term expectations point to continued firmness in sugar, underpinned by upcoming festive demand and low inventory replenishment, while jaggery could face price pressure unless fresh buying resumes. Read on for a detailed breakdown of the latest price charts, supply-demand fundamentals, weather outlook, and strategic recommendations for market participants.

📈 Prices: Recent Market Performance

Product/Exchange	Location	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Sugar (ICUMSA 45, 0.2–1.2 mm)	Mirijampole, LT	€0.56/kg	-€0.04	Neutral to Firm
Sugar (ICUMSA 32, 0.3–0.6 mm)	Norfolk, GB	€0.57/kg	Unchanged	Firm
Sugar (ICUMSA 45, 0.4–1.0 mm)	Vinnytsia, UA	€0.58/kg	Unchanged	Firm
Sugar (Local Markets)	Key Hubs	$47.00–49.00/qtl	+$0.60–1.20	Bullish
Jaggery (Gur)	Key Hubs	$43.00–44.00/qtl	-$0.50–1.00	Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Festive Demand: Seasonal buying from stockists/bulk buyers is lifting short-term demand.
• Tight Local & Regional Supply: Inventory replenishment is lagging, while bulk buying for festivals adds to tightness.
• Profit-Taking in Jaggery: Traders exit long positions as high prices reduce consumer interest.
• Speculative Interest: Trading volumes indicate increased speculative activity on rising price expectations.
• Global Producing Countries: Uncertainty in Brazil, India, and Thailand due to irregular rainfall and policy interventions.

📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks & Exports

Country	2025 Forecast Output (mn tons)	Change YoY	Estimated Stocks (mn tons)
Brazil	41.9	+1%	6.2
India	31.5	-2%	6.0
Thailand	9.1	-4%	1.3
EU	15.6	+3%	2.8
China	10.1	0%	2.2

Global inventories remain tight as major exporters struggle with volatile weather and lower output projections. The EU and Brazil are expected to partially offset Indian and Thai shortfalls; however, export restrictions and delayed shipments could exacerbate regional shortages.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Implications

• India: Monsoon rainfall remains below average in several cane-growing states, adding risk to yield and recovery rates.
• Brazil: Near-normal rainfall has supported crushing and output, but any late-season frost could affect quality.
• Thailand: Persistent dryness has curbed cane growth, reducing exportable surplus.
• EU: Moderate summer; yield prospects steady as rains benefit late development, but regional differences persist.

Short-term weather irregularities in top exporters will likely constrain supply and support firm prices globally.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain moderate long positions in sugar until post-festive demand subsides and supply visibility improves.
• Monitor physical premiums on regional exchanges for signs of easing or tighter supply.
• Bulk buyers should lock in supply contracts for Q4 2025 to secure favorable pricing.
• Jaggery traders should wait for signs of renewed buying before adding new long positions.
• Watch for new government interventions, export policy changes (especially from India and Thailand), and updated crop reports for directional cues.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market/Exchange	Current Price	Forecast Range (3 days)	Sentiment
Local Markets (Key Hubs)	$47.00–49.00/qtl	$47.50–49.50/qtl	Firm to Bullish
Mirijampole, LT (ICUMSA 45)	€0.56/kg	€0.55–0.58/kg	Steady to Slight Up
Norfolk, GB (ICUMSA 32)	€0.57/kg	€0.57–0.59/kg	Steady to Firm

Summary: The sugar market remains firm with upward price momentum, fueled by tight stocks and festive demand. Short-term risks remain skewed to the upside; jaggery is likely to stay under pressure unless significant new buying emerges.