Sugar Beet Market: Firm Prices on Weather Risks, Tight Supplies

The sugar beet market is navigating through a period of pronounced volatility, marked by resilient prices at international exchanges and a sense of tightening in physical European spot markets. Recent futures market activity at ICE Zucker No. 5 highlights firm upward momentum, with near-term contracts (March and May 2026) closing at $425.80/t and $421.80/t, up roughly 3% week-on-week. In the physical market, granulated sugar prices across Central and Eastern Europe have also held steady or increased modestly, maintaining support near the €0.45/kg mark.

Multiple factors are propelling this strength: Unfavorable weather forecasts continue to threaten yields in key beet-growing regions, while stable demand and below-average stocks underpin the bullish tone. Additionally, global regulatory signals, shifting trade flows, and speculative activity are intensifying market swings. The latest USDA reports point to persistent low inventory levels in the EU and concerns about Brazil’s 2025 sugarcane campaign are amplifying risk premiums. In summary, the sugar beet market is witnessing robust fundamentals and weather-led risk, making it a critical time for both producers and buyers to monitor developments closely.

📈 Prices

Contract	Closing Price (USD/t)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
ICE Zucker Nr.5 Mar 26	425.80	+3.10%	Bullish
ICE Zucker Nr.5 May 26	421.80	+2.99%	Bullish
ICE Zucker Nr.5 Aug 26	417.50	+2.71%	Bullish
ICE Zucker Nr.5 Dec 26	419.40	+2.60%	Bullish

Product	Origin	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Date
Sugar granulated (ICUMSA 45)	LT	Marijampole	0.45	0.47	2025-11-12
Sugar granulated (ICUMSA 45)	LT	Marijampole	0.45	0.47	2025-11-12
Icing sugar (Cukr moučka amylín)	CZ	Vyškov	0.65	0.70	2025-11-12

🌍 Supply & Demand

• EU Production: 2025 sugar beet harvest expected slightly below average due to wet spring and early summer drought across France, Germany, and Poland.
• Stocks: European stocks remain tight following robust exports and subdued output. USDA reports EU ending stocks near 1.2 million tonnes—down 8% year-on-year.
• International Trade: Strong global demand, led by Asia and the Middle East. Brazilian production concerns (frost risk and logistics) are supporting global prices.
• Speculative Demand: Fund positioning remains net long, reflective of the weather and stock concerns.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Show declining inventory levels in the EU and reduced area for 2025 planting.
• Crop Acreage: Russia and Ukraine also report lower beet acreage due to price volatility and fertilizer costs.
• Global Inventories: Indian government tightening exports as monsoon deficits affect cane yields, supporting global prices.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Western Europe: Forecasts for below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures in France and Germany in the coming week could limit late beet growth and impact final yields. Some regions risk a continued moisture deficit near harvest.
• Eastern Europe: Conditions remain mixed; Poland reports some spotty rainfall, but not enough to offset previous deficits.
• Brazil: Reports of late-season frost and excessive moisture hampering sugarcane harvest, with indirect bullish impact on beet markets due to price arbitrage.

🌐 Production & Stocks by Country

Country	2024/25 Output (mt)	Stocks (mt)
EU-27	15.8m	1.2m
Russia	5m	0.9m
Ukraine	1.3m	0.25m
Brazil (Cane)	32m (cane equiv.)	5.3m
India (Cane)	31m (cane equiv.)	4.0m

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-Term: Momentum remains bullish on weather, reduced EU stocks, and trade restrictions. Consider holding long positions or buying on dips.
• Producers: Lock in prices for late Q4/early Q1 on any rallies, factoring in potential weather-driven volatility.
• Buyers: Secure supplies early as further tightening is likely if weather does not improve in coming weeks.
• Watch: Further updates on Brazilian crop progress and EU yield estimates; USDA and regional updates may shift market direction abruptly.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current Price	3-Day Forecast
ICE Zucker Nr.5 (USD/t)	425.80	428 – 433
EU (EUR/kg avg)	0.45	0.45 – 0.46
CZ – Icing sugar (EUR/kg)	0.65	0.64 – 0.66

Key Insight: Weather remains the pivotal variable—closely monitor patterns into harvest to seize pricing and strategic market opportunities.