Sugar Market Sees Mild Pullback Amid Ample Supply, Stabilizing EU Spot Prices

The global sugar market is experiencing a measured retreat as futures prices on both the ICE exchange and European spot markets show modest declines, but without significant volatility. Active contracts on ICE Sugar No.5 are down across the board, with the March 2026 contract settling at 426.40 USD/t (a 0.7% drop) and forward months echoing a similar pattern of softness. This easing comes after a period characterized by ample inventories, improved weather for cane and beet harvests, and subdued demand growth in key importing economies. Notably, EU spot prices have stayed stable—reflecting equilibrium in industrial and retail supplies—while origin premiums have generally narrowed.

In Europe, spot sugar prices remain rangebound, mostly at 0.45–0.48 EUR/kg FCA for granulated grades from GB, DE, LT, and CZ, suggesting strong logistical flows despite the slight retreat in futures. Market sentiment is shaped by favorable production outlooks in major regions (notably Brazil and India), solid EU beet outputs, and a seasonally improving weather outlook in both the Center-South Brazil and the Black Sea region. Meanwhile, speculative positions have lightened up—the market is less susceptible to near-term squeezes or rallies. Market participants are monitoring updated USDA and ISO reports, watching for any significant shifts in Asian demand or new trade policies from India.

📈 Prices

Contract	Closing Price (USD/t)	Change (%/USD)	Sentiment
März 26	426.40	-0.70% / -3.00	Bearish
Mai 26	423.50	-0.64% / -2.70	Mildly Bearish
Aug 26	419.80	-0.52% / -2.20	Mildly Bearish
Okt 26	419.30	-0.41% / -1.70	Stable
Dez 26	421.80	-0.38% / -1.60	Stable

 

Product	Origin	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Change
Sugar granulated ICUMSA 32	GB	Norfolk	0.46	Stable
Sugar granulated ICUMSA 45	DE	Berlin	0.48	Stable
Sugar granulated ICUMSA 45	UA	Vyškov (CZ)	0.45	Stable
Sugar granulated ICUMSA 45	LT	Mirijampole	0.48	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Global supplies buoyed in 2025/26 led by robust Brazilian and Indian crop prospects and stable Thai output.
• EU beet sugar production remains steady as weather has supported harvest completion without major disruptions. Stocks were rebuilt after the recent campaign.
• Demand growth is subdued in Asia due to record-high inventories, while North Africa and the Middle East are sourcing competitively from both EU and Black Sea origins.
• India continues to limit exports, but internal surpluses weigh on local and global sentiment. The market is closely watching 2026’s monsoon forecasts for signs of possible weather upsets.

📊 Fundamentals

• Inventories: Key origins (Brazil, Thailand, EU) report ample ending stocks; some tightness persists in select African importers.
• Speculators: Net long positions on ICE have declined, easing the risk of sharp volatility spikes.
• USDA/ISO reports: Latest updates point to a balanced global market with mild surplus projected for 2025/26.
• Crop Conditions: No major disease or cyclone threats reported in major producing regions.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Brazil: Weather in the Center-South remains favorable—seasonal rains are on track, supporting late milling and boosting prospects for the coming crush.
• India: Pre-monsoon showers are timely; absence of drought signals indicates a smooth cane growth cycle.
• EU/Black Sea: Mild winter so far, good field conditions for overwintering beet crops and sowing planning.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

Country	Production (2025/26E, mln t)	Stocks (mln t)
Brazil	39.5	8.0
India	36.0	8.5
Thailand	11.0	1.6
EU (beet)	16.0	2.9
China	9.8	3.2

📆 Market Drivers

• Ample inventories at origins following strong 2025 harvests
• Resilient exports from Brazil and improving freight conditions
• Cautious speculative trading, limiting price swings
• Stable EU beet yields, no major disease/weather threats
• Asian demand still below historic highs

🚦Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Physical sales remain attractive—spot prices are steady, trade flows are robust
• Short-term downside appears limited, but upside risk is capped by ample stocks and favorable weather
• Watch for changes in Indian export policy and Brazilian logistics/freight developments
• Buyers may consider building inventory on any dips towards 415–420 USD/t levels
• Hedgers: maintain flexible strategies, as volatility is expected to remain subdued in near term

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Price Range (Next 3 days)	Trend
ICE (No.5, Mar 26)	424 – 428 USD/t	Stable to Mildly Lower
EU Spot FCA (DE, LT, GB)	0.45 – 0.48 EUR/kg	Stable
Central Europe FCA	0.43 – 0.47 EUR/kg	Stable