Almond Kernels Rally as Tight Import Arrivals Collide with Smaller Crops

Almond kernel prices are in a pronounced upswing, driven by a squeeze in overseas supplies, higher booking costs and a weaker Indian rupee that has sharply lifted domestic replacement prices. In the past 1.5–2 months, Indian almond kernel values have climbed from around EUR 7,450 to roughly EUR 8,500 per MT equivalent, supported by lower import arrivals, smaller Californian and Australian crop expectations and firmer buying from stockists and mandis. Container flows into India remained thin in the last month and are expected to stay subdued through August, keeping spot availability tight. With benchmark US and Spanish export offers also firm in late July and no clear sign of near‑term supply relief, the market tone remains resolutely bullish.

Prices

Domestic Indian almond kernel prices have risen by about EUR 1,000 per MT over a short period, with standard grades advancing from roughly EUR 7,450 to EUR 8,500–8,600 per MT and better qualities trading near EUR 8,980–9,080 per MT (all values approximated from underlying USD quotes at recent FX levels). Over the last 6–8 weeks this represents a gain of around 15%, reflecting an acute tightening in nearby supply.

International reference prices also signal a firm undertone. Recent export offers for US origin almond kernels (Washington, D.C., FAS) are around EUR 6.55–6.60 per kg for conventional Carmel SSR 20/22 and 18/20, and about EUR 9.20 per kg for organic Nonpareil 27/30. Spanish almond kernels (FOB Madrid) range roughly between EUR 5.40 per kg for Guara Bajo 12 and EUR 11.35 per kg for organic Nonpareil, with most grades either steady or slightly firmer over July. Converted to MT terms, these export indications broadly align with the renewed strength seen in the Indian market.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, the global balance has tightened materially. California’s 2026 almond crop is expected to be markedly smaller than last season, with adverse weather trimming production estimates to about 2.6 billion pounds versus 3.05 billion pounds previously. This ~15% year‑on‑year decline removes a substantial volume from the exportable surplus at a time when Indian demand for imports is strong.

Booking rates for California almonds have already risen from USD 2.85 to 3.10 per pound, directly increasing CIF and landed costs into India and other destinations. At the same time, Australia — the largest Southern Hemisphere producer — is confronting lower availability as El Niño‑linked conditions and earlier weather issues cap yields and reduce export potential, limiting Australia’s ability to offset the Californian shortfall. Combined, these factors underpin a more structurally constrained supply picture for the 2026/27 marketing year.

Demand in India remains resilient despite higher prices. Import bookings have increased, but actual container arrivals have lagged due to high overseas offers and currency effects, compressing spot availability. Selling pressure at domestic mandis has eased, while stockists and regular operators have stepped up buying in anticipation of further cost inflation. This behavior, together with steady end‑user demand, is reinforcing the bull trend even as absolute price levels approach multi‑month highs.

Fundamentals & Currency Effects

The recent price surge is closely tied to cost‑push fundamentals. The move from USD 2.85 to 3.10 per pound in Californian booking rates corresponds to an increase of roughly EUR 460–500 per MT at current FX assumptions. Coupled with a weaker Indian rupee, import parity prices have jumped by around EUR 1,000 per MT, a rise that has now largely been transmitted to wholesale kernel prices in India.

Additionally, reduced container arrivals in recent weeks and expectations of similarly low arrivals in August have tightened carry‑in stocks. Importers face higher replacement costs, encouraging them to lift offers and ration available volumes. Stockists, perceiving that the new crop from key origins may not significantly ease tightness, have been actively rebuilding inventories, adding a speculative element to the rally but still grounded in genuine supply constraints.

On the quality side, better‑grade kernels are commanding a widening premium over standard material, reflecting both tighter availability of top grades and more selective buying from premium snack, confectionery and bakery users. This quality spread signals that the market is beginning to price in not just quantity risk but also concerns over sizing and uniformity from weather‑affected orchards, particularly in California and Australia.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather remains a critical source of uncertainty for the coming months. The current California crop has already been downgraded after adverse conditions, and attention now turns to late‑season temperatures and water availability that could still influence final yields and kernel quality. While official projections suggest a significantly smaller crop versus last year, any additional heat events or disease pressure could further trim output from the 2.6‑billion‑pound area.

In Australia, El Niño conditions are expected to keep large parts of the main almond regions in a warmer‑and‑drier pattern through the Southern Hemisphere winter and into spring. This raises the risk of additional stress on trees ahead of the next bloom and may limit the rebound potential in 2027 production. Taken together, the major producing regions show little sign of a swift return to the oversupply conditions seen in some previous years.

Trading Outlook (Next 4–6 Weeks)

• Bias: Firm to moderately higher. With reduced Californian and Australian crops, low Indian arrivals and persistent currency pressure, nearby almond kernel prices are likely to stay elevated, with further upside risk if arrivals remain constrained into August.
• For buyers: Consider covering a portion of Q4 needs on current dips rather than waiting for a major correction, especially for premium grades. Stagger purchases to manage volatility, but avoid excessive hand‑to‑mouth strategies given the risk of renewed spikes on any logistics or weather disruption.
• For sellers/stockists: The current structure favors holding light‑to‑moderate inventories rather than aggressive forward selling. Lock in margins where consumer demand is secure, but retain some upside exposure in view of the tight global balance and uncertain new‑season developments.
• Risk factors to watch: Updated California and Australia crop assessments, any policy or FX moves impacting the rupee, and signs of demand rationing in price‑sensitive segments in India and other key import markets.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR Terms)

• US origins (FAS/FOB): Sideways to slightly firmer in EUR, with dollar‑denominated offers steady but FX and freight costs keeping replacement values elevated.
• Spanish origins (FOB): Mostly steady with a modest firm tone, supported by stronger global benchmarks and limited willingness of sellers to discount.
• Indian wholesale market: Mild upward bias as low arrivals and strong mandi demand persist; any brief softness is likely to attract fresh buying from stockists.