Almond Prices Edge Higher as California Strengthens and Spain Holds Firm

Almond kernel prices in both Spain and the US are firm to slightly higher, supported by strong California shipment data and healthy but tighter stocks. With no major weather threats in key growing regions over the next few days, nearby price risk remains skewed moderately to the upside. The almond market enters early September with a constructive tone. Recent California position data confirm robust export demand and the highest price levels in about a decade, while carryout remains within a healthy range, preventing extreme tightness but limiting downside. In Spain, Marcona and Valencia types continue to trade at a premium to US standards, with incremental gains across most grades. Short‑term, benign weather in California and Spanish producing regions removes immediate supply shocks, keeping trade focused on logistics, demand from key importers and the pace of new‑crop selling. Overall, nearby differentials look stable to slightly firmer rather than softening.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR using an indicative rate of 1 USD = 0.92 EUR.

• Spanish Marcona and Valencia grades show a steady upward drift of about 0.05 EUR/kg over the last week, consolidating previous gains.
• US Carmel and organic Nonpareil offers are modestly higher in EUR terms, in line with broader California price strength reported by handlers and market analysts.

Supply & Demand Drivers

Recent California position reports and handler commentaries describe a 2025/26 crop year that finished with July shipments up around 3% year-on-year and total annual shipments essentially flat, but at historically high absolute levels. Export demand has led the gains, while US domestic offtake remains somewhat softer.

Carryout at the end of the 2025/26 season is estimated near 19% of annual shipments, a level widely seen as healthy and far from the burdensome stocks of prior years. This balance, combined with a smaller crop than initially forecast and strong late‑season exports, has pushed benchmark California prices up by roughly 25–27% year-on-year into mid‑August.

Spain remains structurally short and price‑taker to California, but domestic demand for traditional types (Marcona, Valencia, Guara) and confectionery uses underpins local premiums. Limited very recent public data on Spanish crop size mean traders rely on private estimates and observed firmness in offers, which currently show no sign of discounting versus US origin.

Weather & Crop Conditions (ES, US)

In California’s Central Valley, short‑term forecasts for the next 3 days point to seasonally warm, dry conditions with stable temperatures and no significant storms during the early harvest window. This supports uninterrupted shaking, picking and hulling operations, helping keep quality risks contained and logistics smooth.

In Spain’s key producing zones (Andalusia, Murcia, Valencia and Aragon), early‑September forecasts also show predominantly dry, hot late‑summer weather with only isolated, light showers possible at higher elevations. Such patterns are broadly neutral to slightly positive for remaining field operations and nut drying, and do not currently pose a threat to yield or quality.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

• US fundamentals: Strong late‑season shipments, average‑size 2026 crop expectations and healthy, not excessive carryout underpin the recent price rally and keep sellers disciplined.
• Price level: Industry updates highlight that California almond prices are now at their highest in roughly a decade, which may gradually ration more price‑sensitive demand but has not yet triggered a visible slowdown in key export markets.
• Spain: Domestic kernels track California but maintain a premium for specialty types; current offers suggest tight farmer selling, supported by strong confectionery and snack demand ahead of year‑end.
• Logistics: With no acute logistics disruptions reported in the last few days and stable weather, nearby availability is more a function of price negotiation than physical shortage.

Trading Outlook (Short-Term)

• Buyers (roasters, confectioners): Consider covering Q4 needs on remaining dips, particularly for Spanish Marcona/Valencia and US Nonpareil, as fundamentals and sentiment do not currently support a near‑term price correction.
• Importers into EU: Maintain a balanced book; premiums for Spanish origin may widen modestly if California differentials firm further, so blending US and ES origins where quality allows can reduce average cost.
• Producers/handlers: With prices at multi‑year highs, gradual forward selling of additional volumes is justified, but holding a portion for potential further upside remains reasonable given steady export demand.

3‑Day Directional Price Indications (EUR)

• US origin (FOB/FAS, EU‑equivalent): Mildly bullish bias; expect flat to +0.05 EUR/kg over the next 3 days if current demand persists and no negative macro news emerges.
• Spanish origin (FOB ES): Also mildly bullish; tight selling and strong local demand suggest stable to slightly firmer values, particularly for Marcona and organic grades.