Almond Prices Hold Firm as New California Crop Lifts Global Supply

Almond prices in Spain and the US are holding broadly steady as the 2026/27 California crop enters the market with strong early shipments and only localized weather disruptions. Robust export demand, particularly from India and parts of Europe, is offsetting softer US domestic buying, keeping kernel values supported but not yet breaking higher. New-crop California shipments in August opened the 2026/27 season at a strong pace, with exporters reporting particularly firm demand from India and steady interest from Europe despite higher price levels. Spanish FOB prices for Marcona, Valencia and Guara types in Madrid are unchanged on the week, and US FAS/FOB indications for Carmel and Nonpareil kernels out of Washington D.C. are also flat versus mid‑September. Mildly unsettled weather in parts of eastern Spain and the US West Coast has not yet translated into a material supply shock, so near‑term pricing looks range‑bound.

Prices

Current benchmark almond kernel quotations (all in EUR):

Over the last four weeks, both Spanish and US quotations have moved sideways, consolidating after gradual firming earlier in the season. The flat week‑on‑week profile reflects balanced spot demand and ample availability from California plus the ongoing Spanish harvest.

Supply & Demand

California opened the 2026/27 crop year with an "energetic" August shipment surge, led by exports up around 30% year on year as India and several European destinations stepped up buying despite higher prices. Handlers report that smaller kernel sizing has pushed some scheduled August volume into September, adding to near‑term export flow.

By contrast, US domestic offtake remains the soft spot, with recent reports flagging domestic August shipments slightly below last year and continued headwinds in foodservice and retail demand. Globally, carry‑in stocks are comfortable and world supply for 2025/26 and 2026/27 is broadly stable, with only modest year‑on‑year growth projected for major producers including the US and Spain.

In Spain, official medium‑term outlooks point to a recovery in nut production for 2025/26 after previous weather‑related losses, supporting better local availability of Marcona, Valencia and Guara types. Together with strong Californian supply, this caps upside for Mediterranean kernel prices in the short term, unless weather significantly disrupts the ongoing harvest.

Weather & Harvest Conditions (ES, US)

Spain: A recent cold front has brought a sharp temperature drop and intense storms to eastern Spain, with orange alerts for heavy rain, strong winds and large hail in Catalonia, southern Aragón and the Valencia region. Some of these areas host irrigated almond orchards, so localized quality issues (staining, shell moisture) and short harvest delays are possible, but national‑scale crop damage is not yet reported.

Conditions are expected to stabilize toward the weekend, with fewer showers and a gradual rebound in temperatures, which should allow fieldwork and drying to resume. Overall, weather in the main southern producing regions (Andalusia, Extremadura, Murcia) remains seasonally warm and largely suitable for late harvesting and post‑harvest handling.

United States (California): Recent industry reports describe the 2026 crop as progressing rapidly, with receipts for August already above 400 million lbs and no major weather‑related setback reported so far this month. West Coast industry commentary has instead focused on managing occasional wet harvest periods, but not on large‑scale storm damage. For now, US weather is a neutral‑to‑slightly positive factor for supply.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

• Shipments and carry‑in: The 2025/26 California crop year closed with shipments up just over 3% year on year, tightening carry‑over stocks versus earlier market fears and helping sentiment at the start of 2026/27.
• Demand mix: Export channels (India, Turkey, Western Europe) drive incremental demand, while US domestic consumption lags, putting more emphasis on FOB export pricing and freight spreads.
• Spanish competition: A more normal Spanish crop, especially in irrigated areas, adds origin choice for EU buyers, partially limiting price divergence between California and Mediterranean kernels.
• Speculative tone: With steady prices and no acute weather scare, speculative buying interest is relatively muted; most trades are hand‑to‑mouth or short‑to‑medium‑term coverage rather than long‑dated bets.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• For buyers: Use current sideways prices in Spain and the US to extend coverage modestly into Q4 on core grades (Carmel, Nonpareil, Marcona, Valencia), but avoid over‑buying while the strong California export pace and solid Spanish crop keep the balance comfortable.
• For sellers: Maintain offer discipline on premium Spanish Marcona and organic Nonpareil, where price differentials remain attractive; consider rewarding firm export bids for prompt shipment from California while domestic demand is subdued.
• Risk watch: Monitor further storms in eastern Spain and any unexpected rain events in California during the remainder of harvest; a cluster of quality issues could quickly tighten supply of top‑spec kernels and widen spreads.

3-Day Regional Price Indication

• Spain (FOB Madrid, all kernel types above): Prices expected to remain broadly stable over the next three trading days, with only minor intra‑day negotiation around listed levels as exporters assess any localized weather impacts.
• United States (FAS/FOB Washington D.C., listed US kernels): Prices also seen steady in the very short term, supported by strong early‑season export demand but capped by comfortable stocks and subdued US domestic offtake.