Almond prices in India rise ₹20–25/kg on festive buying and reduced selling, while firmer export demand and a smaller California crop tighten global fundamentals.
Prices
Festive-led demand in India has lifted California almond kernel prices by approximately ₹20–25/kg, with wholesale levels currently near ₹1,000–1,070/kg as sellers show reduced willingness to offer.
Internationally, benchmark quotations in EUR also reflect a firmer tone versus early September. In Washington D.C., US-origin almond kernels stand at:
| Product | Specification | Location / Terms | Current price (EUR) | Previous price (EUR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almonds kernels | carmel, ssr, 18/20 | US, Washington D.C., FAS | 6.75 | 6.70 |
| Almonds kernels | carmel, ssr 20/22 | US, Washington D.C., FAS | 6.75 | 6.70 |
| Almonds kernels | natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr, organic | US, Washington D.C., FOB | 9.40 | 9.35 |
Spanish-origin kernels have also inched higher, with Marcona 12/14 quoted at EUR 6.70 FOB Madrid and Valencia 12/14 at EUR 7.35 FOB, compared with slightly lower levels earlier in September. The synchronized uptick across US and EU origins underlines a broad-based improvement in sentiment.
Supply & Demand
On the supply side, the 2026 California almond crop is forecast around 2.70 billion pounds (shelled basis), a touch below the prior year, while bearing acreage has started to contract for the first time in decades, signaling a structural cap on medium-term output growth. Fair, dry weather through September has supported a smooth harvest in the Central Valley, with limited weather-related losses reported so far.
Demand is being driven by exports rather than US domestic use. August 2026 shipments totaled about 190 million pounds, up roughly 20% year-on-year, with exports jumping more than 30% and India leading growth as buyers rebuild stocks ahead of Diwali. Domestic US shipments remain slightly negative year-on-year, highlighting ongoing consumer price sensitivity at home even as overseas demand strengthens.
In India, strong early-season imports from California and the current rebound in wholesale prices confirm that festive consumption is absorbing available supplies. However, the extent of further price gains will hinge on how aggressively importers continue booking shipments and on the pace of new offers from origins as the harvest advances.
Exclusive commodities on CMBroker
Fundamentals & Weather
Fundamentals are tightening modestly. The 2026/27 crop is expected to be smaller than last season, and industry data show robust early shipments and healthy forward commitments, suggesting that a significant share of available supply is already sold. Together with lower carry-in stocks and a small but notable decline in bearing acreage, this supports the recent price firming.
Weather in California’s main almond regions has been largely favorable. Warm, dry conditions through September have aided harvest and nut drying, with no major rain events disrupting operations in the Central Valley. Short-term forecasts point to continued seasonally mild, mostly dry weather, limiting near-term weather risk for supply but offering little additional yield upside at this late stage of the season.
Outlook & Trading Recommendations
Seasonal consumption in India should keep near-term support under the market as Diwali approaches, while tighter global fundamentals from a smaller California crop and strong export demand reduce downside risk. At the same time, the rally has already priced in much of the bullish news, and any slowdown in Indian buying after the festivals could cap further upside.
- Importers / Roasters (India & MENA): Consider covering key festive and immediate post-festive needs soon, taking advantage of current availability but avoiding overstocking in case demand normalizes after November.
- Handlers / Exporters (California, Spain): Maintain a moderately firm offer stance while export interest from India and Asia-Pacific remains strong, but be prepared for more price-sensitive buying if domestic and EU demand stays soft.
- Industrial users (EU/US): Stagger purchases over Q4 to balance the risk of further origin firmness against potential post-festive demand easing, prioritizing critical specifications such as Nonpareil and organic kernels.
3-Day Directional View
- India (California kernels, wholesale): Slightly firmer to steady as festive buying continues and seller interest remains measured.
- US FAS Washington D.C. (Carmel SSR): Steady to marginally firmer, with recent EUR quotations already reflecting improved export demand.
- Spain FOB Madrid (Marcona/Valencia): Mostly steady with a mild upside bias, tracking international benchmarks and limited farmer selling.