Almond Prices Ease in India as Buyers Push Back Against High Levels

Imported almond prices are softening in India as buyers resist high levels, even while global kernel values remain firm on a tighter supply balance. California and Spanish origins are holding offers, but limited wholesale stocking in New Delhi is putting mild downward pressure on spot values. The almond market is entering the 2026/27 season with structurally firmer fundamentals, yet the near-term tone in key importing hubs is more cautious. In New Delhi’s dry-fruit trade, California almonds and kernels have eased alongside other imported nuts as buyers trim volumes at current prices. Upcoming festival demand is expected to lend selective support, but not enough to trigger broad-based restocking as wholesale players remain wary of overpaying and carrying expensive inventory.

Prices

Spot indications from New Delhi on 15 September show imported California almonds and almond kernels trading weaker, in line with softer cloves and cinnamon, as buyers resist high price levels and reduce stocking. This contrasts with firm global reference values, where kernels are broadly reported in a supported EUR 11.3–12.2/kg band on a CIF/FOB basis in major trade hubs, reflecting the tighter 2026/27 balance.

Broker indications for key kernel grades in Europe and the US remain steady: US Carmel SSR 18/20 and 20/22 around EUR 6.70/kg FAS Washington D.C., and Spanish Marcona and Valencia types mostly between roughly EUR 6.15 and 8.90/kg FOB Madrid, with organic Nonpareil near EUR 11.50/kg. These stable offer levels, together with easing New Delhi spot values, suggest that current weakness is driven more by local demand fatigue than by a change in global fundamentals.

Supply & Demand

On the demand side, India remains structurally dependent on imports, with strong underlying consumption growth, but the latest feedback from New Delhi shows buyers pushing back against current levels. Higher prices across imported spices and dry fruits are prompting traders to reduce volumes and shorten coverage, particularly for almonds and walnut kernels, which have both weakened on limited buying.

Globally, however, export pull has stayed firm into early September. Shipments from California and Mediterranean origins to key destinations, including India and Europe, have been robust, with several recent trade reports highlighting above-prior-year export volumes and disciplined selling behavior by growers and handlers. This juxtaposition—firm export flows but softer Indian spot prices—underscores that the current dip is more a local adjustment phase than a shift toward oversupply.

Fundamentals

Fundamentally, the 2026 California crop is projected slightly below the previous season, and after multiple years of heavy stocks the market has moved into a tighter but not extreme balance. Kernel availability is less burdensome, encouraging sellers in California and Spain to maintain firm offer ideas rather than chase business lower, even as some destinations register buying fatigue.

In Spain, Marcona, Valencia and Guara-based kernels show stable to slightly firmer benchmark prices in EUR terms compared with late August, while US kernel offers have edged only marginally higher over the same period. The combination of a smaller crop, disciplined selling and healthy import demand from India and Europe is preventing any significant correction, leaving room only for localised softness where wholesale demand is temporarily constrained.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather conditions in California’s key almond regions have recently been characterised by elevated evaporative demand and lingering dryness in parts of the Central Valley, but no major late-season shock has emerged to alter the 2026 crop outlook. Current expectations point to a slightly smaller crop with normal-to-early harvest timing, supporting the firmer global price structure rather than tightening it dramatically.

In Spain, earlier-season reports indicated generally adequate bloom and fruit set for Marcona, Guara and related varieties, though regional variability persists. At this stage of the season, weather is less critical for yield formation and more relevant for harvest logistics and kernel quality. No acute weather-driven relief to supply is visible, reinforcing the view that any near-term price softness in India is likely to be demand-led and temporary.

Trading Outlook

• Importers in India: Use the current dip in New Delhi prices and buyer resistance to cautiously extend coverage into the festival period, but avoid overstocking at still-elevated global replacement costs.
• Exporters (US, ES): Maintain a firm but flexible offer strategy; local weakness in India is driven by stocking fatigue rather than a structural glut, and festival demand should absorb well-priced parcels.
• Food industry buyers in Europe: Consider layering in cover for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 while kernels hold in a tight EUR range; downside appears limited as long as the 2026/27 supply balance remains only modestly comfortable.

3‑Day Price Direction (EUR)

• US kernels (export references): Steady to slightly firm; disciplined selling and tight kernels limit downside.
• Spanish kernels (Marcona/Valencia/Guara): Steady; balanced local supply and good export interest.
• Imported almonds in New Delhi: Slightly weaker to sideways as buyers resist high prices, with selective support emerging from festival demand.