Almond Market Firms on India’s Festive Buying and Steady Origin Prices

India’s almond market is trading with a firm undertone as steady festive buying comfortably absorbs available supplies, but without the sharp price spikes seen in some spices. Sellers remain relaxed yet disciplined, as imported almonds stay sensitive to international origin prices, currency moves and rising landed costs, keeping the near‑term tone supported rather than aggressively bullish. India’s dry fruit demand is accelerating into the core festive window, with almonds and pistachios leading the complex. Market conversations in New Delhi point to intermittent but consistent buying that prevents any significant downside, even as buyers show more price sensitivity than in previous years. At the same time, international quotations from the US and Spain have moved modestly higher in recent weeks, while freight and a weaker rupee lift landed costs. Against this backdrop, most participants expect a sustained, mildly firmer market through the season rather than a runaway rally.

Prices

FOB/FAS offers at key origins are broadly steady to slightly firmer versus mid‑September, in line with the supported undertone observed in India’s physical market.

In India, local reports indicate almonds are trading 10–20% higher year‑on‑year into the festive season, driven by stronger landed costs and brisk demand, even as cashews remain comparatively cheaper and attract some substitution in sweets and gifting mixes. 

Supply & Demand

Physical supply at origins is adequate but not burdensome. California’s 2026 crop is only marginally lower on a shelled basis versus last year, while Spain’s 2026/27 almond harvest is forecast noticeably higher than 2025, adding some balance on the non‑US side of the market. 

• India: Festive‑season demand for almonds remains a central driver, with North Indian consumption and Diwali gifting pulling in steady import flows. Buyers are pacing purchases but rarely stepping away entirely, which supports a firm floor.
• Substitution: Rising prices for almonds and pistachios are pushing some Indian retailers and sweet manufacturers to shift toward cashews and alternative nuts, tempering potential upside in almond volumes even as value per kg rises. 
• Global balance: Higher Spanish production for 2026/27 provides additional European supply, partially offsetting tightness from logistics and geopolitical frictions in other nut origins. 

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Market participants in India highlight that imported almonds remain acutely sensitive to shifts in origin prices, freight and the rupee. Recent newsflow underscores how geopolitical tensions and higher shipping and insurance costs are lifting CIF values for the broader dry fruit basket, including almonds. 

• Currency: Rupee softness amplifies the euro- and dollar‑denominated move into Indian landed prices, sustaining firmness even when origin quotes are only steady.
• Logistics: Higher freight and longer transit times from key nut origins are adding a noticeable premium to landed costs this season, which traders are passing through downstream.
• Stocks: Comfortable but not excessive pipeline inventories in India align with the observed pattern of intermittent but supportive buying rather than aggressive stockbuilding.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Recent evapotranspiration and field reports from California’s Sacramento Valley point to seasonally normal late‑season conditions for orchards, with no immediate weather shock threatening the 2026 crop. 

In Spain, the latest 2026/27 production forecast implies a larger crop versus the previous season, reflecting expanding bearing area and broadly cooperative growing conditions. This incremental European supply is likely to cap extreme upside in Mediterranean‑origin premiums, even if Indian demand stays robust. 

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

The near‑term outlook for almonds is for a broadly supported, moderately firm market rather than a sharp bullish breakout, with India’s festive demand acting as the primary stabiliser.

• Importers in India: Consider maintaining staggered coverage through the festive period rather than front‑loading purchases; current origin prices and rupee‑driven landed costs argue for disciplined, need‑based buying.
• Exporters/origin sellers: With offers already firm and demand absorbing supply, cautious price increases on premium grades look feasible, but aggressive hikes risk accelerating substitution toward cashews.
• Industrial users & packers: Secure core almond needs for Q4 while keeping formulations flexible to switch part of the volume into relatively cheaper nuts if retail resistance strengthens.

3-Day Directional View

• US origins (FAS/FOB): Sideways to mildly firmer as exporters test small premiums into strong South Asian demand.
• Spanish origins (FOB Mediterranean): Slightly firm tone expected to persist, underpinned by active export inquiries despite a larger local crop.
• India (domestic wholesale): Firm with an upward bias as festive buying continues and imported supply costs remain elevated.