Almond exports pivot to India as Australian harvest delays reshape flows

Australian almond exports are recovering strongly, with India’s kernel demand surging and helping to rebalance trade away from an overwhelming dependence on in-shell sales to China. Weather‑related harvest delays have temporarily tightened early in-shell availability, but total export shipments remain only slightly behind last year, pointing to a fundamentally well-supplied global market. Australian trade flows are shifting at a critical time for the global almond complex. For the second month in a row, overseas sales have clearly outperformed last year, led by a more than five‑fold jump in kernel shipments to India, alongside better buying from Vietnam, Indonesia, Spain and the UAE. At the same time, benchmark kernel prices in the US and Europe are broadly steady to slightly firmer in recent weeks, suggesting that stronger Asian demand is helping absorb delayed Australian supplies without triggering significant price weakness.

Prices

Spot almond kernel offers show a broadly stable to mildly firmer tone in early September. US-origin Carmel SSR kernels around Washington D.C. are indicated near EUR 6.7/kg FAS across 18/20 and 20/22 calibres, unchanged over the last week and modestly higher than late August. Premium organic Nonpareil 27/30 is quoted around EUR 9.35/kg FOB, also steady compared with prior updates. In Spain, Marcona kernels range roughly from EUR 6.65–8.90/kg FOB Madrid depending on calibre, while Valencia types cluster around EUR 7.15–7.50/kg, reflecting a firm but not spiking European price structure.

Wholesale indicators on continental markets, such as Rungis where bulk almonds are quoted near EUR 2.6/kg for generic product, underline the wide spread between commodity grades and higher‑value calibrated kernels used in snack, confectionery and industrial applications. Recent Spanish market reports point to a modest uptick in Marcona prices, consistent with the slight firmness seen in FOB offers from Madrid. Overall, price action suggests buyers are willing to pay steady-to-slightly-higher levels for quality kernels even as global supply remains ample.

Supply & Demand

Australian export performance is the key current driver. July data show that for the second consecutive month, overseas almond sales were substantially stronger than a year earlier, confirming that earlier concerns over a wet, delayed harvest have not translated into lasting export weakness. Processors shipped 31,755 tonnes in the first five months of the season, only slightly below the 34,410 tonnes moved during last year’s much drier season, underlining that overall supply availability remains high despite logistical timing issues.

China continues to dominate the in-shell segment, taking 71% of total in-shell shipments so far, a significantly higher share than last year and reinforcing its role as the anchor market for Australian in-shell product. At the same time, India has emerged as a powerful growth engine on the kernel side: season‑to‑date kernel shipments to India reached 3,149 tonnes, up from just 550 tonnes in the same period of 2025. This more than five‑fold increase greatly diversifies demand across formats and destinations, supplemented by improved sales into Vietnam, Indonesia, Spain and the UAE.

Globally, Australia’s recalibrated export mix interacts with robust baseline supply from California and Spain. While California’s 2026 crop is only slightly lower year on year, it still represents a historically large harvest, and Spain remains an important secondary origin for Mediterranean buyers. Against this backdrop, the rapid growth in Indian kernel demand is particularly important: it absorbs part of the surplus that might otherwise weigh more heavily on prices, and it reduces Australian exporters’ dependency on any single in-shell outlet.

Fundamentals & Weather

The fundamental balance is shaped by three intertwined elements: Australian harvest timing, Asian demand momentum and Northern Hemisphere crop size. Wet conditions in key Australian growing regions delayed harvest and were expected to restrict early-season in-shell availability for China and India. However, the small gap between this season’s shipped volume and last year’s suggests that processing and logistics have caught up faster than initially feared, limiting the duration of any genuine tightness in physical supply.

Recent Australian climate updates point to generally supportive rainfall in southern cropping zones, including parts of South Australia and Victoria, which are relevant for tree crops and general irrigation conditions. Improved soil moisture and mostly mild temperatures support orchard health and yield potential going into the next cycle, even if short‑term harvest disruptions highlighted vulnerabilities in picking and processing windows. For buyers, this means that while in-shell flows can be temporarily bunched or delayed, underlying kernel availability from Australia looks secure.

On the demand side, India’s leap from 550 tonnes to 3,149 tonnes of kernel purchases underscores a strong structural shift. High population growth, rising incomes and changing dietary patterns are driving nut consumption higher, and a poor local crop has further boosted import needs. Strong buying from Southeast Asia and the Middle East adds another layer of support, helping to underpin kernels even in the face of ample Californian and Spanish supply.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Looking ahead to late September, the almond market appears fundamentally well supplied but with improving demand breadth. The key variable will be how quickly remaining delayed Australian volumes are processed and shipped, and whether India, China and Southeast Asia maintain their current buying pace. If Indian kernel imports continue at today’s heightened levels, the market is more likely to experience sideways to mildly firmer kernel prices rather than a renewed downturn, especially for higher‑spec varieties and organic product.

Weather risks into the Southern Hemisphere spring bear watching. While recent rains have been beneficial, any further episodes of excessive moisture during critical orchard operations, or conversely an early onset of heat and dryness, could disrupt next year’s crop development and harvest logistics. Nonetheless, with California and Spain both providing solid supply backstops, it would likely take a combination of regional shocks to push global prices sharply higher in the near term.

Strategic pointers

• Importers in India and Southeast Asia: Consider securing a portion of Q4–Q1 kernel needs at current levels, particularly for Nonpareil and popular kernel grades, as Indian demand momentum and steady Chinese in-shell buying are limiting downside.
• European buyers: With Spanish Marcona and Valencia prices stable to slightly higher and Australian kernels flowing well, staggered buying on dips is prudent rather than front‑loading large positions, especially if local harvest progress remains smooth.
• Australian exporters: Leverage the current strength in India and diversified Asian demand to lock in forward contracts, reducing exposure to potential later‑season competition from Californian sellers.
• Speculative participants: The balance of risks in the very short term favours a mildly constructive stance on kernels, but large global stocks argue for disciplined position sizing and tight risk controls.

3‑day regional price indication (directional)

• US export hubs (Carmel, Nonpareil kernels, EUR basis): Sideways bias; offers expected to remain near current ranges over the next three days.
• Spain (Marcona, Valencia kernels): Slightly firm tone after recent small gains, but no sharp moves anticipated in the immediate term.
• Australia (export‑oriented kernels, EUR‑equivalent): Stable, with limited near‑term volatility as exporters continue to work through delayed harvest volumes and strong Asian demand.