Almond Prices Edge Higher as EU Eases Tariffs and Weather Risks Stay Mixed

Almond prices in both Spain and the US are grinding modestly higher, supported by firmer demand into the EU and weather-related risk premia, while fundamental supply expectations remain broadly comfortable. The newly agreed 0% EU tariff-rate quota for US almonds and seasonally strong kernel demand are underpinning premiums for quality and origin. Spot markets are calm but firmer, with Spanish Marcona and Valencia types inching up and US Nonpareil and Carmel also ticking higher in euro terms. Buyers in Europe are stepping up coverage ahead of the 2026/27 marketing year, encouraged by improved access to US supply but mindful of heat and dryness episodes in Mediterranean producing areas. In California, the latest USDA fruit and tree nuts outlook confirms only marginally lower almond output year on year, keeping the broader balance sheet ample but not burdensome, while recent European heat warnings keep a weather floor under Iberian quotations.

Prices

Quoted prices below are approximate current working levels converted to EUR (1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR) for comparability.

European wholesale benchmark data show almonds around 2.6 EUR/kg for generic grades in Rungis, indicating a healthy but not overheated downstream market.

Supply & Demand Drivers

The latest USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook (July 2026) confirms a broadly stable US almond supply picture, with 2026 California production only slightly below last year and stocks still comfortable. This caps significant upside but leaves room for modest price appreciation on demand strength.

On the demand side, the EU remains the key growth engine. The recent EU–US agreement creating a 0% tariff-rate quota for eligible US almond imports is a notable bullish factor for flows, as it improves price competitiveness of California kernels into Europe and supports forward sales programs from US handlers. Early indications from trade analysts point to brisk new-crop export contracting into Europe as a result.

Domestic Spanish supply is expected to recover strongly in the 2025/26 campaign compared with prior drought-reduced years, according to national agriculture ministry projections, although these were issued earlier in the season. Combined with easier access to US product, this suggests a well-supplied European market overall, with price strength driven more by weather risk, quality differentials and logistics than by absolute scarcity.

Weather & Crop Conditions (ES, US)

In Spain, June 2026 ranked among the warmest and driest Junes on record nationally, with "extremely warm" and "very dry" conditions flagged by the state meteorological agency, particularly across much of the interior. Early July brought widespread heat alerts, including red warnings in key interior and eastern regions, though without prolonged, record-breaking extremes.

More recently, parts of Extremadura – a significant almond-growing region – have enjoyed some thermal relief in late July, with public broadcasters reporting less intense heat than typical for the peak summer period. Overall, current conditions are not acute enough to materially change the 2026 crop outlook, but cumulative heat and localized dryness justify a modest weather premium in Spanish kernel prices, especially for high-value Marcona and Valencia types.

In California, market commentary and position data compiled in USDA’s July 2026 outlook suggest trees have come through the season in reasonably good shape, with no widespread weather disaster reported for the current crop. While broader US discussions focus on heatwaves and El Niño-related volatility, recent reports do not point to immediate, large-scale damage to almond orchards. Short-term weather is therefore a secondary driver compared with trade policy and demand for now.

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

US shipments remain robust, with the Almond Board’s recent position reports showing steady export performance and a solid pace of forward sales into the 2026/27 season. The new EU 0% tariff-rate quota is likely to further shift incremental volume towards European buyers, who can now secure US kernels at more competitive landed prices.

Spanish processors face the dual influence of this cheaper US inflow and recovering domestic output. Earlier ministry assessments highlighted a projected record almond crop for Spain in 2025/26, driven by expanded plantings and better yields after two difficult seasons. This implies that Spanish-origin premiums – especially for Marcona – will be increasingly justified by quality, size and origin branding rather than scarcity alone.

At the consumer level, EU nut demand remains resilient, supported by health trends and stable retail pricing, as evidenced by mid-range wholesale benchmarks. Overall, fundamentals are consistent with a gently firm but not explosive price environment.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Market bias (next 2–4 weeks): mildly bullish EUR prices with a firm floor and limited upside without a new weather or policy shock.

• EU/Spanish buyers: Consider extending coverage modestly on Spanish Marcona and Valencia grades while prices are only slightly above recent lows, focusing on quality lots and flexible shipment windows.
• Industrial users in the euro area: Take advantage of improved US–EU trade terms by diversifying with US Nonpareil and Carmel kernels, particularly for standard and ingredient grades where origin is less critical.
• Producers (ES, US): Use current firmness to hedge a portion of 2026/27 output, especially premium sizes, while keeping some upside open in case late-summer weather issues tighten supply.
• Traders: Watch Spanish weather updates and any further signals on EU quota utilization; rapid filling of the 0% TRQ could temporarily widen differentials between US and Spanish origins in EUR terms.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Spain (FOB Madrid, main kernel grades): Slightly firmer bias over the next three days, with limited upside driven by continued heat risk and steady demand from EU buyers.
• US (FAS/FOB, California-type kernels into EU): Stable to marginally higher in EUR terms, supported by softer USD and strong interest following the EU 0% tariff-rate quota announcement, but capped by comfortable US supply.