Almond Prices Hold Firm as Heatwaves Test US and Spanish Orchards

Almond kernel prices in both the US and Spain are broadly steady, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves, despite extreme heat across key growing regions. Tight but comfortable global stocks and a broadly balanced demand picture are keeping spot values supported but not spiking. Almond markets are entering the early 2026/27 Northern Hemisphere harvest window with California facing persistent heatwaves and elevated fire risk, while Spain remains structurally dry but without a fresh weather shock in the last few days. Official forecasts still point to a slightly smaller California 2026 crop versus last year, while global production is expected to rise only modestly, led by the US and a larger Australian harvest. This combination of constrained incremental supply and resilient kernel demand in Europe and Asia is underpinning current prices and limiting downside, even as buyers remain cautious about committing too far forward.

Prices

All prices below are indicative export parity values converted to EUR at ~0.92 EUR/USD and rounded.

Over the past month, both US Nonpareil and Spanish Marcona/Valencia types have traded within a narrow band, reflecting the absence of fresh supply shocks and the market’s wait‑and‑see stance ahead of full harvest data.

Supply & Demand

California remains the dominant global supplier, accounting for roughly half of world almond output, with Spain in second place. The latest official subjective forecast from US authorities pegs 2026 California almond production at around 2.70 billion pounds (shelled), slightly below the prior season. This implies only marginal supply growth once higher Australian output and stable Spanish production are taken into account.

Global carry‑in stocks for 2025/26 are moderate rather than burdensome, with world ending stocks projected to rise but remain far from crisis levels. Consumption continues to expand steadily in major importing markets such as the EU and India, supported by the ongoing shift toward plant‑based proteins and snack nuts, keeping the demand side of the balance sheet firm. In this context, the market currently prices a balanced but slightly tight outlook, particularly for premium grades.

Weather & Crop Conditions (US, ES)

In California, a prolonged summer heat pattern and elevated fire potential are in place, with seasonal outlooks calling for warmer‑than‑normal conditions into August. While almonds are relatively heat tolerant around harvest, persistent heatwaves can raise irrigation demand and stress trees, adding to growers’ cost base and heightening concerns about future yield potential. Recent public discussion in the region highlights ongoing tension over water use in almond orchards, underscoring long‑term sustainability risks.

Spain’s almond belt along the southern and eastern coasts remains exposed to chronic water scarcity and recurring drought episodes, as evidenced by recent scientific assessments for southern Spain and the wider Iberian Peninsula. However, no new, acute weather event in the last three days has been reported that would materially alter the 2026 crop outlook. Structural dryness and high summer temperatures continue to cap yield potential and limit aggressive expansion, which helps support Spanish kernel prices relative to Californian material.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stocks and balances: Industry data indicate US beginning stocks for 2025/26 are elevated but manageable, with world ending stocks projected to increase only modestly, not enough to trigger a price collapse.
• Competing origins: Australia is expected to deliver a larger almond crop in 2025–26, offering buyers an additional source of Nonpareil‑type kernels and tempering any sharp rally driven solely by US or Spanish issues.
• Costs and risk premia: Higher irrigation requirements in both California and Spain due to heat and structural drought risk keep production costs elevated and add a modest risk premium into forward offers.
• Demand tone: Retail and ingredient demand for almonds in the EU and Asia remains resilient, but buyers show price sensitivity and prefer short‑term coverage, limiting upside momentum despite firm fundamentals.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

Trading outlook (next 2–4 weeks)

• Buyers (roasters, chocolatiers, industry): Consider maintaining hand‑to‑mouth coverage rather than aggressively extending positions, as current prices already reflect a moderate weather risk premium but no clear supply shock.
• Importers in Europe: Monitor spreads between Californian material and Spanish Marcona/Valencia; the current stability favours selective switching to US origin for standard grades while securing Spanish product for specialty uses.
• Producers and handlers: With crops not yet fully harvested, avoid deep discounting; tight global balances and weather risk argue for defending current offer levels, especially on premium varieties and organic product.

3‑day directional price indication (ES, US)

• US (Carmel, Nonpareil, FAS/FOB): Sideways. Ongoing heat and fire risk are already priced in; no fresh official crop data expected in the next three days that would justify a sharp move.
• Spain (Marcona, Valencia, Guara, FOB): Sideways to slightly firm. Structural water constraints and tight local supply support a mild upward bias, but the very short 3‑day horizon limits actual price changes to minor adjustments.