Almond prices steady as heat risks build in Spain and California

Almond kernel prices in Spain and the US are broadly steady at late-July levels, with only minor week‑on‑week moves and no clear breakout in either direction. The market is marking time ahead of the new Northern Hemisphere crop, while ongoing heat episodes in California and southern Europe keep a mild weather‑risk premium in the background. Wholesale and retail data indicate a relatively balanced spot market: Spanish retail natural almonds around EUR 11.5/kg align with stable FOB quotes for domestic kernels, while US export offers for standard Carmel and Nonpareil remain range‑bound when converted to euros. At the same time, California’s 2026 crop is projected only slightly below last season, and official position data show comfortable shipments and inventories, pointing to adequate global supply despite localized weather stress in key growing valleys.

Prices

Using an indicative EUR/USD rate of 1.10, late‑July offers for US origin almonds equate to roughly EUR 5.95–6.00/kg for conventional Carmel SSR (FAS US) and about EUR 8.35/kg for organic Nonpareil 27/30. Spanish origin Marcona and Valencia kernels (FOB ES) cluster mostly between EUR 5.45/kg (Guara bajo industrial types) and EUR 8.75/kg (premium Marcona S/16), with organic Nonpareil around EUR 11.35/kg.

Spanish retail prices confirm a stable downstream picture: natural almonds under major supermarket brands are quoted near EUR 11.50/kg as of 28 July 2026, unchanged since spring, suggesting limited recent cost pressure or demand shock at consumer level.  

Supply & Demand

California remains the dominant global supplier. The latest official forecast from May 2026 pegs the 2026 California almond crop at about 2.70 billion lbs (shelled basis), only 1% below last year, implying broadly adequate raw‑material availability for export in 2026/27.   Monthly position reports up to June confirm solid shipments and comfortable ending stocks, limiting immediate upside pressure from tight supply.  

In Spain, recent government market monitoring shows the 2025/26 oilseeds and tree‑nut campaign progressing with stable domestic prices and no acute supply shock flagged in the latest July bulletin.   Spain’s diversified almond regions (Valencia, Murcia, Andalusia, Aragon and Balearic Islands) continue to supply niche, high‑value varieties such as Marcona, supporting the price premium over Californian standard grades.  

Weather & Crop Conditions (ES, US)

California’s Central Valley has experienced repeated heat episodes in 2026, including a record March heatwave highlighted by state authorities.   Current National Weather Service forecasts for the northern Central Valley call for typical hot, dry summer conditions over the next week, with highs generally in the mid‑30s°C and clear skies.   This pattern supports nut fill but increases irrigation demand; for now there are no official reports of widespread heat damage to orchards.

In Spain, a fourth European heatwave is ongoing, with reports of high temperatures across several countries including Spain in late July.   Such heat, if persistent, can raise stress on non‑irrigated or marginal orchards, particularly in inland Andalusia and Aragon. However, no major yield downgrades for Spanish almonds have been published in the latest official market notes.   Overall, weather risks are present but not yet translating into confirmed production losses for 2026/27.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Comfortable global supply: A near‑steady California crop forecast and normal stock levels underpin a broadly well‑supplied market, capping rallies absent a major weather shock.  
• Demand steady, not booming: Retail prices in Spain are flat year‑to‑date around EUR 11.5/kg, indicating stable consumer demand but little sign of a strong demand‑led price surge.  
• Heat and water concerns: Repeated heatwaves in California and water‑supply debates in the Central Valley keep long‑term production costs and sustainability in focus, though these remain medium‑term rather than immediate price drivers.  
• Regional premiums: Spanish Marcona and organic Nonpareil retain a firm premium over standard US Carmel due to varietal preferences and more limited supply, especially in confectionery and specialty snacking segments.  

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View

• For buyers (roasters, processors): With California and Spanish kernels broadly stable, this window looks suitable for covering short‑term needs in standard grades, especially if you are under‑bought for Q4 2026. Consider staggered purchases to manage residual weather risk on the new crop.
• For sellers (growers, cooperatives): The absence of strong bullish catalysts argues for disciplined, gradual selling rather than aggressive forward commitments. Retaining some unpriced volume into the main Northern Hemisphere harvest may preserve upside if heat stress later affects yields.
• For traders: Flat nearby prices and well‑supplied fundamentals suggest a carry and spread‑trading environment rather than a directional bull bet. Watch upcoming US position reports and any fresh Spanish crop assessments for catalysts.

3‑day directional outlook (EUR basis):

• Spain (FOB ES kernels): Sideways to mildly firm; heatwave headlines may keep a slight weather premium, but no strong move expected through 3 August.
• US (FAS/FOB offers into EU, in EUR terms): Sideways; exchange‑rate fluctuations may cause minor adjustments, but underlying dollar‑denominated offers look stable in the very short term.