Almond Shipments Edge Higher as El Niño Risk Looms Over New Crop

California almond shipments in May 2026 rose modestly, but shifting demand patterns and rising weather risks are keeping the market finely balanced. Prices in both U.S. and European origins are firm to slightly higher in late July, reflecting tighter nearby kernel availability and a still-uncertain 2026/27 crop. The latest trade data confirm a solid export performance, even as domestic use softens and India, the key destination, reduces purchases. Buyers in Southeast Asia and Europe are absorbing more volume, but the global market’s focus is already turning to how a strengthening El Niño could impact Southern California orchards, pest pressure and harvest logistics in the coming months. With early indications around 2.7 billion pounds and industry estimates converging in the 2.65–2.7 billion range, the new crop looks broadly comparable to last season, yet weather during the next few weeks will be critical for final yields and quality.

Prices

Kernel prices in key export references are firming slightly, driven by steady export demand and tighter spot availability ahead of new crop. In Washington D.C. (U.S. origin, FAS/FOB-equivalent in EUR terms), standard non-organic Carmel SSR grades are assessed around EUR 6.50–6.60/kg, with organic Nonpareil around EUR 9.20/kg. Spanish origin material (FOB Madrid) trades in a similar to moderately higher band, with mainstream Valencia and Marcona types clustering between roughly EUR 6.50 and EUR 8.75/kg, while premium organic Nonpareil exceeds EUR 11/kg.

Over the last three weeks, most listed grades show incremental increases of about EUR 0.05/kg, suggesting a gradual firming rather than a sharp rally. This aligns with industry commentary that June and early July saw almond prices rise on tightening kernel supply and resilient demand, particularly from Europe, even as some buyers in India attempted to step back on expectations of more comfortable availability once the 2026 crop ships at scale. 

Supply & Demand

California almond shipments reached 214.4 million pounds in May 2026, up 3% year on year. Exports grew 5% to 169.1 million pounds, confirming continued strength in overseas demand, while domestic U.S. consumption declined by about 6%, underlining a more price-sensitive and saturated home market. Within exports, shipments to India – the largest single destination – fell 9%, whereas Southeast Asia, especially Vietnam, recorded notably stronger volumes.

This redistribution reflects both high Indian carry-in stocks and a deliberate slowdown in buying as importers expect improved availability with the new crop, as well as changing trade corridors where Southeast Asian hubs take on a stronger role in regional redistribution.  Meanwhile, Europe remains an anchor market, and recent tariff changes granting duty-free access for significant volumes of U.S. tree nuts into the EU from July 1 could further support European imports and underpin medium-term demand. 

Fundamentals & Weather

Early crop indications point to around 2.7 billion pounds for the 2026 California almond crop, broadly consistent with official projections and private industry estimates in the 2.65–2.7 billion pound range.  Bearing acreage is relatively stable, so year-on-year changes in production will depend mostly on yields and in-field losses during the growing and harvest seasons. At present, the market is assuming a crop size close to last year, which limits the scope for either a sharp supply squeeze or a pronounced surplus, unless weather materially disrupts harvest.

A strong El Niño is developing and is expected to bring excess rain, humidity and heat to Southern California. This raises the risk of disease pressure, pest challenges and harvest delays in some orchards.  While a wetter pattern can benefit reservoir levels and long-term water security, the near-term concern is quality: higher humidity around harvest can complicate drying, while additional pest and fungal pressure may increase sorting losses and quality downgrades. For now, these risks are mostly weather options rather than realized damage, but they add a clear risk premium to forward pricing.

Short Weather Outlook (Key Growing Regions)

• Central & Southern California: Forecasts point to above-normal temperatures and periods of elevated humidity over the coming days, consistent with early El Niño patterns.  Growers will closely monitor irrigation, pest control and hull split timing.
• Mediterranean Europe (Spain): Seasonal summer heat persists; no major immediate weather shocks are flagged, leaving Spanish production broadly on track.

Market & Trading Outlook

The combination of slightly higher shipments, a broadly steady crop outlook and rising weather risks points to a cautiously firm price environment into the early 2026/27 season. Demand is expected to remain solid in Europe and Southeast Asia, while India’s buying is likely to remain tactical until more clarity emerges on new crop availability and landed costs. Domestic U.S. demand appears softer, but this is more than offset by export resilience, particularly if EU tariff relief and competitive EUR prices stimulate additional usage in snacks, confectionery and plant-based dairy.

Trading Recommendations

• Importers in Europe & MENA: Consider covering a portion of Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 needs at current EUR levels, especially for premium grades and organic Nonpareil, as El Niño-related risks argue against waiting for significantly lower offers.
• Indian buyers: Maintain a staggered procurement strategy. With May shipments to India already down 9% and local inventories still adequate, selective forward coverage on price dips could balance downside risk with potential weather-driven rallies.
• Californian growers & handlers: Use current firmness to lock in margins on part of expected production via forward contracts or structured pricing, while retaining some exposure in case El Niño issues tighten supply further.
• Spanish processors: Monitor relative spreads between U.S. and Spanish origins; if U.S. kernels strengthen faster, Spain could gain share in nearby European demand, supporting domestic price floors.

3-Day Price Indication (Directional)

• US export references (EUR/kg, kernels, FAS/FOB): Sideways to slightly firmer; thin liquidity but underlying bid interest should prevent significant softening.
• Spanish FOB Madrid (EUR/kg): Mostly stable with a mild upward bias on quality-sensitive grades such as Marcona and organic Nonpareil.
• Physical wholesale Europe (bulk almonds): Local wholesale benchmarks in major hubs remain aligned with international levels and are expected to trade steady in the next three days.