Almond Trade Rewires Around China as Australia Displaces the US

China’s almond market is entering a more mature phase: import growth has slowed, total volumes fell sharply in early 2026, and Australia has decisively replaced the United States as China’s dominant supplier, especially for in-shell almonds. Despite weaker Chinese demand, EUR-denominated kernel prices in key export origins are broadly stable, with only marginal recent moves. China remains structurally import-dependent and is steadily shifting toward shelled almonds, driven by bakeries, plant-based beverages and snack manufacturing. Yet high tariffs on US product, logistics advantages for Australia and softer Chinese consumer spending are reshaping trade flows more than underlying global supply. In the short term, Australian exporters gain pricing power in China’s higher-value segments, while US sellers are pushed to diversify to other markets. Buyers should expect a more two‑tier market: firm premiums for ready‑to‑use kernels into China versus competitive bulk supply elsewhere.

Prices

China’s average import price for shelled almonds in 2025 was around USD 5.65/kg (≈EUR 5.15–5.30/kg), reflecting a mid-range level in historical terms rather than a price spike. At the same time, spot kernel offers for standard US and Spanish origins in early August 2026 show broadly stable quotes versus July.

The combination of softer Chinese imports and ample global availability is limiting upside in bulk kernel prices. Premiums persist for high-quality specialty types (e.g. Spanish Marcona, organic Nonpareil), but these niches also show a sideways pattern rather than a clear bull trend.

Supply & Demand

China is the world’s second-largest almond importer and depends on foreign supply for over 80% of its domestic consumption. After a phase of rapid expansion, growth has cooled: total almond imports fell by about 50% in volume during January–April 2026, underscoring weaker consumer demand and lingering trade and logistics disruptions.

Within this shrinking import pie, Australia has captured a dominant position. Supported by zero-tariff access under the China–Australia Free Trade Agreement, shorter shipping routes and counter-seasonal harvesting, Australian shelled almond exports to China jumped from 19,799 metric tons in 2023 to 41,612 metric tons in 2025, with export value surging from USD 96 million to USD 295 million. Australian in-shell shipments rose from 21,840 to over 52,800 metric tons over the same period, giving Australia close to 90% of China’s in‑shell almond imports by volume in 2025.

By contrast, US market share has eroded dramatically. US shelled almond exports to China collapsed from 24,893 metric tons in 2023 to just 3,017 metric tons in 2025, with trade value dropping from USD 107 million to USD 19 million. Between August 2025 and June 2026, combined US almond shipments to China and Hong Kong fell by 35% year on year, reflecting the burden of Chinese tariffs, competition from Australia and broader demand softness.

Fundamentals & Product Mix

The composition of China’s almond imports is shifting in favour of shelled, ready-to-use product. Shelled almonds accounted for roughly 43% of China’s total almond imports in 2025, up from about 40% in 2023. This trend is underpinned by demand from industrial users in bakery, confectionery, plant-based beverages, energy bars and other processed foods that prioritise convenience and consistent quality.

Even as total almond imports declined by 50% in January–April 2026, Australian shipments fell by a more moderate 26% and their average unit value rose by 28%. This suggests Chinese buyers are prioritising higher-quality and value-added Australian product, accepting higher prices while cutting lower-margin volumes—particularly from the US. The current environment therefore favours suppliers able to offer reliable, tariff-advantaged access and tailored kernel specifications for processing applications.

On the supply side, Australian almond production has been recovering from weather-related setbacks and is broadly supported by solid yields in key regions such as Sunraysia and the Riverland, although wet harvest conditions have recently constrained the availability of top-grade in-shell product for export. Global supply from California remains ample, but high Chinese tariffs continue to limit the competitiveness of US almonds in this particular market.

Weather & Production Outlook

Weather risks in the main producing regions remain a background factor rather than a near-term shock. In California, forecasts for mid-2026 indicate generally warm, seasonally dry conditions typical of summer, with broader outlooks pointing to the development of El Niño and elevated odds of a wetter-than-normal winter 2026/27. For the current marketing window, this implies limited immediate yield impact but some uncertainty for the upcoming bloom and water availability.

In Australia, recent industry assessments point to broadly favourable supply prospects, with almond crops in major growing regions tracking at least in line with last year’s yields. However, earlier-season rainfall and harvest weather in some areas have affected shell appearance and restricted export-quality in-shell volumes, reinforcing the premium on clean, well-graded lots destined for China and India. Overall, there is no acute weather-driven threat to global availability in the short term.

Forecast & Trading Outlook

• Price direction (3–6 months): Sideways to mildly firmer for premium Australian kernels into China, while bulk US and Spanish kernels are likely to trade in a narrow range given soft Chinese demand but steady global consumption in other destinations.
• China demand: Import volumes are expected to stabilise at lower levels after the sharp early‑2026 drop, with continued preference for shelled and value-added products. Any recovery will likely benefit Australian suppliers disproportionately.
• US and EU market balance: With the US effectively sidelined from China, more Californian supply will continue to target Europe, the Middle East and South Asia, keeping competition intense and capping upside in these regions.

Strategy notes

• Chinese industrial buyers: Consider forward coverage of Australian shelled almonds where possible, as rising unit values signal firming premiums for high-spec product despite weaker overall demand.
• Non-China buyers (EU, MENA, South Asia): Use the current stable to slightly soft environment for US and Spanish kernels to secure medium-term contracts, taking advantage of competition from displaced US volumes.
• Producers and exporters: Emphasise processed and specification-ready kernels (sized, blanched, diced, etc.) to align with China’s growing processed-food demand, while diversifying sales channels for in-shell product where Chinese competition for top grades is strongest.

3-day price indication (EUR)

• US kernels (Carmel SSR, Washington D.C., FAS): Around EUR 6.55–6.60/kg, expected stable over the next three trading days.
• Spanish kernels (Valencia & Marcona, Madrid, FOB): Around EUR 6.50–7.35/kg depending on variety and size, with a flat to slightly firm bias due to quality premiums.
• Organic Nonpareil (US & Spain): Around EUR 9.20–11.35/kg, with limited liquidity and stable quotations in the very short term.