Almonds: Stable Prices but Weather‑Risked California Crop Adds Uncertainty

California’s 2026 almond crop sits at a weather-inflected crossroads: winter chill was broadly adequate, but stormy conditions during peak bloom have introduced real uncertainty about final yields and quality. Spot kernel prices in EUR remain broadly stable for now, masking a market that is quietly reassessing production risk. Warmer-than-average spring weather accelerated tree development across California’s fruit and nut belt, while an intense Tule fog episode earlier in the winter helped orchards accumulate around 500 chill hours – close to the 10‑year average and much better than last year. However, as almond bloom advanced in early February, critical pollination weeks coincided with rain, wind and limited bee activity, just when varieties such as Nonpareil needed consistent flights. Markets are now weighing this mixed agronomic backdrop against robust global demand and relatively steady prices in both U.S. and Spanish origins.

Prices

Recent offer levels in EUR suggest a mostly steady almond market with a mild firm tone in some origins and specs:

In summary, benchmark U.S. Carmel-type kernels cluster around 6.55–6.60 EUR/kg FAS and Spanish standards mostly trade between 5.45–7.35 EUR/kg FOB, with premium Marcona and organic lots commanding evident mark‑ups.

Supply & Demand

From a physiological standpoint, California’s almond trees entered 2026 in relatively good shape after a more favorable winter. Tule fog over the Central Valley from late November to early December cooled orchards and delivered more than 500 chill hours between 32°F and 45°F, close to the 10‑year norm and materially above the roughly 410 hours recorded the previous year. This should support uniform bud development and potential yield capacity across many orchards.

However, the subsequent bloom period was far from ideal. Almond bud break began in early February, with rapid advancement, particularly in the Sacramento Valley. Just as many key varieties moved into peak flowering, a series of rain and wind events restricted bee flight and hampered pollination. The storms also disrupted in‑field operations such as fungicide and fertiliser applications during bloom, adding disease‑management risk in a season already marked by fast phenological progress.

Global demand for almonds remains structurally firm, driven by continued use in confectionery, snacking, and plant‑based dairy alternatives. With California still the dominant global supplier, any meaningful shortfall versus expectations would have an outsized impact on export availability and seasonal pricing. For now, the market appears to be in a wait‑and‑see mode, with participants reluctant to move prices sharply in either direction until there is better visibility on nut set and early yield assessments later in the season.

Fundamentals & Weather Drivers

The key fundamental tension in 2026 lies between adequate chilling and compromised bloom conditions. Sufficient chill hours have reset tree physiology after a weaker winter last year, which is constructive for potential yields. Yet pollination is ultimately decisive for nut set, and the overlap of peak flowering with stormy weather – especially in sensitive Nonpareil blocks – raises the probability of regional variability and pockets of lower yields.

Reports from across California’s main nut‑growing regions highlight highly localised differences in bloom progression and bee activity, reflecting micro‑climate and varietal mix. Some areas with better-timed weather windows may deliver strong set, while orchards exposed to prolonged rain and wind during full bloom could underperform. This heterogeneity increases the likelihood of quality spreads and greater differentiation by origin, variety and size count in the 2026/27 marketing year, even if statewide production ultimately lands near trend.

Weather outlooks for late summer and early autumn will now be critical. Warm, dry conditions during kernel fill and pre‑harvest typically favour both yield and quality, while late rains could trigger disease pressure and harvest delays. Given the accelerated crop development observed this spring, an earlier‑than‑normal harvest window is plausible, which could slightly advance new‑crop availability but also compress logistics and processing schedules.

Trading Outlook

• For buyers: With EUR‑denominated prices for standard U.S. Carmel and Spanish Valencia/Guara currently stable, consider covering near‑term needs and part of Q4 requirements, especially in premium grades where any quality shortfall could tighten supply and widen differentials.
• For sellers/growers: Given unresolved production risk, avoid over‑committing unharvested volumes at current flat prices. A staggered selling strategy into any weather‑ or report‑driven price strength later in the season can help capture upside while still managing inventory and liquidity needs.
• For processors and roasters: Monitor bloom‑to‑set field reports closely and be prepared for more pronounced quality and size‑count variation in the 2026 crop. Adjust product formulations and sourcing strategies early to secure consistent raw material for high‑spec applications.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)

• U.S. kernels (Carmel, Nonpareil, FAS/FOB, EUR): Sideways to slightly firm over the next three trading days, as participants await clearer crop signals.
• Spanish kernels (Valencia, Guara, Marcona, FOB, EUR): Largely stable, with any moves likely limited to minor adjustments in premiums for specific sizes and qualities.
• Organic almonds (US & ES, FOB, EUR): Steady with a firm bias, reflecting tightness in certified supply and resilient niche demand.