Turkish Raisin Prices Hold Steady as Malatya Weather Turns Mild and Dry

Turkish raisin prices are stable at early‑April levels, with no fresh bullish catalyst from weather or policy in Malatya, suggesting a short‑term sideways market in EUR terms. Buyers can use the current pause to cover nearby needs, while keeping an eye on quality‑driven scrutiny from EU regulators on Turkish dried fruit. The Turkish sultana market enters April with flat FOB/CIF quotations out of Malatya, as exporters report balanced nearby demand and no major disruptions in the vine‑fruit supply chain. Recent headlines continue to underline Türkiye’s status as the world’s largest raisin producer, supported by generally favourable climatic conditions and a structurally strong dried‑fruit export sector. At the same time, renewed EU attention to food safety in Turkish dried fruit is raising the bar on quality compliance, although this is not yet translating into visible price pressure on standard grades. Weather in Malatya over the coming three days looks seasonally cool but largely dry, helping maintain good conditions for vineyard management tasks.

Prices & Spreads (all in EUR)

With EUR used as reference currency (approx. 1 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR for conversion), Turkish export offers translate into the following indicative levels:

The price structure shows a stable and orderly Turkish curve, with around 0.30–0.35 EUR/kg premium for larger Type 10 sultanas over standard Type 9, and about 0.70–0.80 EUR/kg premium for organic versus conventional. Chinese standard sultanas for EU delivery sit modestly below Turkish levels, keeping some competitive pressure at the low‑to‑mid quality segment, while Indian raisins remain the cheaper alternative for non‑EU destinations.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Türkiye retains its position as the world’s largest producer of raisins, thanks to extensive plantings of Sultaniye/Sultana grapes in the Aegean and Eastern Anatolia, combined with still‑supportive climatic conditions. No major new crop‑size revisions or frost incidents have been reported over the last three days for key vine‑fruit areas, and market participants largely view current stocks as adequate for ongoing export programs.

On the demand side, global dried‑fruit consumption continues to benefit from the healthy‑snacking trend highlighted in recent dried fruit and nut sector commentary, with cashews and almonds in the spotlight but raisins also riding the broader mix‑snack wave. European buyers remain central to Turkish raisin exports, although some are currently cautious on Turkish dried fruit in general due to elevated food‑safety alerts, particularly for ochratoxin A in other product categories like dried figs. This has not yet translated into broad cancellations, but is leading to tighter supplier selection and a slight preference for well‑known packers.

Fundamentals & Risk Factors

From a fundamentals perspective, the short‑term balance appears neutral. Existing raisin stocks in Türkiye are sufficient, and there are no fresh reports of extraordinary export surges or domestic policy interventions affecting dried grapes. The broader Turkish economy continues to grow, supporting agricultural investment and export infrastructure, but this is a background factor rather than an immediate price driver.

Quality and regulatory risk is more prominent. Recent EU food‑safety analysis shows a high share of EU alerts linked to Turkish dried fruit, especially figs, prompting importers to tighten controls across all Turkish dried products, including raisins. For compliant raisin exporters, this could reinforce a quality premium and support current price floors. For marginal suppliers, however, any non‑compliance could quickly translate into rejected lots and discounting.

Weather Outlook – Malatya (Key Turkish Raisin Region)

Weather in Malatya for 2–4 April 2026 is forecast to be generally cool and mostly dry: cloudy with some light morning rain on 2 April (high around 12°C), followed by improving conditions with sun returning and highs of 14–15°C on 3–4 April. Night‑time lows hover around 4–5°C, above critical frost thresholds for vines at this phenological stage.

These conditions are broadly supportive for vineyard management and early season growth, without posing immediate frost risk or excessive disease pressure. No significant weather‑driven supply shock is expected over the next three days, in contrast to the severe frost events that have hit other Turkish fruit crops in recent seasons.

Short-Term Price Outlook (3 days)

• Malatya FOB/CIF raisins (Types 8–10, conventional): Stable in EUR terms over the next three days, with offers expected to remain near current levels (≈ 2.20–2.65 EUR/kg FOB, ≈ 2.40 EUR/kg CIF RTU) as neither weather nor policy signal new volatility.
• Organic Turkish sultanas: Premium likely to hold around 0.70–0.80 EUR/kg above conventional, with limited spot liquidity but no evidence of fresh upside momentum.
• Competing origins (China, India): No very recent price shocks reported; relative discounts versus Turkish product should remain broadly unchanged, keeping a soft cap on Turkish low‑grade upside.

Trading Recommendations

• European buyers / industrial users: Use the current calm to secure Q2 needs on a staggered basis at today’s flat prices, prioritising suppliers with strong food‑safety records to mitigate EU alert risk.
• Turkish exporters: Focus on quality assurance and documentation to differentiate from other dried‑fruit categories currently under EU scrutiny; maintain offer discipline rather than undercutting on price while fundamentals are balanced.
• Traders / distributors: Maintain a neutral to slightly long stance in high‑quality Turkish sultanas; hedge downside via diversification into alternative origins (e.g., China) if European demand softens unexpectedly.

Over the next three days, the base case is a sideways Turkish raisin market in EUR terms, with weather benign and fundamentals balanced. Any abrupt shift in EU regulatory actions or an unexpected frost event would be the main triggers to watch for price breaks from the current range.