Raisin Prices Edge Higher on Tight Nearby Supply and Weather Caution
Concise raisin market update: firm to slightly higher prices in India, Turkey, Chile, China and Afghanistan amid tighter stocks and weather risks.
Prices & Short-Term Moves
All prices below are approximate export values converted to EUR/kg.
Indian raisin prices continue their gentle uptrend, in line with broader reports of higher bulk raisin values in 2026, driven by tighter supply and resilient domestic and export demand. Turkish and Chilean offers into Europe are also edging higher in EUR terms as exporters pass through slightly firmer origin prices and steady freight. Afghanistan‑origin feed raisins, though a smaller segment, are tracking the general firm tone and benefit from recovering production prospects.
Supply, Demand & Weather Drivers
Global balance sheets: The latest international industry forecast for 2025/26 indicates world raisin production and total supply down versus 2024/25, with notable declines in Turkey and India after previous large crops, while China and Chile remain comparatively well supplied and Afghanistan shows a production recovery. This backdrop leaves less buffer against weather or quality shocks.
Turkey (TR – Malatya and Aegean): Malatya’s recent weather pattern has featured spring rains and local hail and disease concerns in stone fruit, though temperatures for May have mostly been seasonally mild. While these reports focus on apricots, the broader message for vineyards in eastern Turkey is sustained moisture and some localized storm risk, which keeps a weather risk premium in sultana prices despite adequate current stocks.
Chile (CL): Chilean grape and berry growers have been warned about episodes of rain, hail and high temperatures linked to El Niño during the current Southern Hemisphere season, increasing concerns around fruit quality and harvest logistics. For flame raisins, this combination can reduce clean drying opportunities and add sorting costs, contributing to slightly firmer export offers.
China (CN – Xinjiang): Weather data for key grape‑growing areas in Xinjiang (e.g. Turpan/Shihezi) show predominantly warm, dry late‑May conditions typical for the region, supporting good vine growth and offering a constructive outlook for the coming drying season. Together with the industry forecast of a markedly higher 2025/26 Chinese raisin crop versus last season, this should cap aggressive rallies but has not yet translated into cheaper nearby offers in Europe.
India (IN) and Afghanistan (AF): Indian bulk raisin prices are reported higher year‑on‑year in 2026 on the back of earlier supply tightness and steady domestic demand. The latest global forecast, however, points to lower 2025/26 Indian production after a strong 2024/25, limiting downside. Afghanistan’s raisin production is projected to rebound from 12,000 to 20,000 tons, expanding its role in regional trade, but from a relatively small base.
Fundamentals & Market Sentiment
- Stocks: Global ending stocks for 2025/26 are forecast to fall from around 154,000 to 136,850 tons, implying tighter carry‑over into the following season and supporting a floor under prices.
- Trade flows: Turkey, China, India and Chile remain the core suppliers to Europe, with Afghanistan’s role growing mainly in lower grades. European buyers continue to diversify origins to manage origin‑specific weather risk.
- Demand: No major demand shock is visible in recent industry or trade commentary; snack and bakery usage is steady, though buyers remain price‑sensitive and opportunistic, extending coverage only when attractive differentials appear.
3‑Day Outlook & Trading View
Weather outlook (next 3 days)
- TR – Malatya: Mostly mild late‑spring conditions with some chance of scattered showers and storms, but no widespread extreme cold indicated in near‑term forecasts.
- CL – Central Chile vineyards: Short‑term risk of showers and localized hail persists under El Niño‑driven instability, keeping quality risk on the radar.
- CN – Xinjiang: Warm, predominantly dry weather supportive for vine growth and early season management.
- IN & AF: No acute, widely reported adverse events for vineyards; seasonal heat builds in northern India and Afghanistan, normal for the time of year.
Trading recommendations (short term)
- Buyers in Europe/MENA: Consider covering Q3–Q4 needs in Indian and Chinese grades on dips, as global stocks are tightening and weather risks in Turkey/Chile argue against waiting for significantly lower prices.
- Origin sellers (TR, CL, IN): Maintain offer discipline; use any renewed freight softening or FX gains to secure forward sales rather than cutting USD/EUR prices aggressively.
- Afghanistan suppliers: Leverage recovering production to expand feed and mid‑grade segments, but remain competitive versus Indian and Uzbek offers to gain share.
3‑day regional price indication (directional, EUR‑based)
- India (IN, FOB New Delhi): Golden/brown/black AA – bias slightly firmer on tight nearby supply and steady domestic demand.
- Turkey (TR, Malatya FOB/CIF): Sultanas #8–10 – expected to trade sideways to slightly firmer, supported by weather risk premium.
- China (CN, Xinjiang export via EU hubs): Sultanas #9 – likely steady, with potential modest softening later if large 2025/26 crop materializes.
- Chile (CL, flame jumbo): Slightly firmer tone maintained on El Niño‑related quality risk and logistic uncertainty.
- Afghanistan (AF, feed grades into EU): Steady to mildly firmer as demand from price‑sensitive buyers persists.