Raisin Prices Hold Firm as New Turkish and Indian Crop Signals Build

Raisin prices across key origins are largely steady in late June, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves and no clear breakout on either side. New‑crop signals from Turkey and India and generally benign short‑term weather mean buyers can still find cover near recent ranges, but downside from here looks limited unless a clearly larger‑than‑expected 2026 crop materialises. Export‑grade raisins from India, Turkey, China and Chile are trading in a relatively narrow band, with India and China competitive in the mid‑range and Turkish RTU and Chilean flame jumbo at a premium. New‑season fresh apricot activity in Malatya and normal seasonal conditions in South America suggest drying capacity and raw grape availability should be adequate, but not abundant enough to trigger a sharp price correction. With global dried grape production in 2025/26 expected below the 2024/25 peak and table grape markets currently tight, the short‑term balance of risks favours stable to slightly firmer raisin prices into late June.

Prices & Spreads

Indicative export prices, converted to EUR at ~0.93 EUR/USD, show Indian FOB New Delhi raisins broadly flat over the past two weeks, clustered between about EUR 1.70–2.20/kg depending on colour and grade. Turkish sultanas and RTU product sit higher in the value chain, in a zone around EUR 1.90–2.70/kg FOB/CIF equivalent, reflecting brand and quality premiums as well as logistics proximity to Europe. Chilean flame jumbo raisins into Europe remain at the top end of the range, around EUR 2.25–2.30/kg FCA, consistent with their larger size and more limited supply.

Supply & Demand Drivers

On the supply side, Türkiye’s Malatya region is preparing for a much better stone fruit season after last year’s damaging frost; apricot harvest is set to start at the end of June and exports to ramp up from July, signalling normal drying activity and labour availability in the region that also underpins raisin handling and logistics. While the article focuses on apricots, it implicitly points to improved orchard conditions and economic expectations compared with 2025, reducing tail‑risk of major supply shortfalls in Turkish dried produce.

In India, broader export data show total merchandise exports rising by roughly 15% year‑on‑year in April–May 2026, helped by a weaker rupee that improves price competitiveness for processed foods. Although raisins are not singled out, this macro backdrop suggests exporters remain motivated to ship volume at current USD levels, helping anchor international offers despite slightly higher local costs after a challenging 2025/26 grape season with heavy rainfall in parts of Maharashtra. Meanwhile, demand in key developed markets is supported by tight table grape supplies during the seasonal transition from Mexico to California, which can divert some fruit into drying and keep dried grape demand steady.

Globally, medium‑term statistics from industry groups indicate that 2025/26 raisin production is below the exceptional 2024/25 volume, with notable declines in India and Iran only partly offset by gains in Afghanistan and South Africa. This tighter balance helps explain why current export prices have stopped easing despite good early‑season signals from Turkey and generally adequate stocks in Europe and the Middle East.

Fundamentals & Weather Watch

Afghanistan (AF): Seasonal monitoring up to early June shows below‑average cumulative rainfall in much of the country but overall favourable irrigated crop conditions, with no widespread reports of stress in orchards. For raisin production, this points to a broadly normal 2025/26 outcome, with improved volumes versus last year as indicated in recent global dried grape balance sheets. Short‑term weather into late June is predominantly dry and seasonally warm, which is supportive for drying if early grapes are available.

Chile (CL): Chile’s central and south‑central viticultural zones continue to face structural water constraints, with agronomic reports highlighting that efficient irrigation and adaptation remain critical to sustaining vineyards between Atacama and Biobío. Temperature anomalies this June in coastal areas such as Viña del Mar are close to historical averages, suggesting no acute frost or heat shock for current‑season vines. For raisins, this supports a steady production outlook rather than a sharp rebound from previous drought‑affected years.

China (CN): Fresh, raisin‑specific news from Xinjiang over the past three days is limited, but broader climate and trade commentary suggests no major new disruptions to Chinese dried grape exports. With European FCA prices for Chinese sultanas slightly easing in recent days, the market appears adequately supplied, and buyers may lean on China for standard‑grade coverage where Turkish and Chilean offers are too expensive.

India (IN): Recent reporting on the 2025‑26 grape season underscores that persistent rainfall in Maharashtra hit yields but that newer, more resilient cultivars helped maintain export volumes. Combined with the rupee’s depreciation and strong national export growth, Indian raisins are likely to remain aggressively priced, especially for golden and black grades aimed at the Middle East, Africa and Europe.

Türkiye (TR): Economic coverage from Malatya emphasises optimism for the 2026 apricot season after last year’s frost damage, with harvest to begin at the end of June and exports from July. While this article focuses on apricots, it is also indicative of improved grower sentiment and orchard health more broadly, including grape‑growing households that often diversify into multiple tree and vine crops. For raisins, this suggests stable labour availability and better cash flow, reducing pressure to push prices aggressively higher in the near term.

3‑Day Price Outlook (AF, CL, CN, IN, TR)

• Afghanistan (AF) – feed/brown raisins, FCA EU: With stable EU demand and no fresh weather shocks at origin, prices are expected to remain flat around current EUR ~1.75–1.80/kg levels over the next three days.
• Chile (CL) – flame jumbo, FCA EU: Weather‑normal conditions and seasonally limited short‑term demand changes imply a sideways profile, holding near EUR ~2.25–2.30/kg through the coming 72 hours.
• China (CN) – sultanas type 9, FCA EU: Recent slight softening and adequate European stocks point to a mildly bearish bias, but any move is likely modest (‑0.5% to ‑1%) in the next three days.
• India (IN) – export‑grade raisins FOB/FCA: With exporters incentivised by currency and broader trade momentum, Indian offers should stay firm but stable, with only marginal upward drift possible on select premium grades (up to +0.5% short term).
• Türkiye (TR) – sultanas/RTU FOB/CIF: As orchards prepare for stone‑fruit harvest and new‑crop grape expectations are cautiously positive, prices are likely to trade sideways, with buyers and sellers awaiting clearer new‑season size and quality data.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Buyers (food industry, packers): Consider covering near‑term needs (1–2 months) at current levels, especially for premium Turkish and Chilean grades, as downside appears limited while upside risk from any localised weather issue remains.
• Importers in MENA/EU: Use Indian and Chinese origins to blend overall portfolio costs lower; the weak rupee and stable Chinese supply make these origins attractive for standard‑grade coverage.
• Producers & exporters (AF, IN, TR): With global production below 2024/25 highs and firm table‑grape markets, resist deep discounts; instead, focus on quality differentiation and reliable shipment windows to secure repeat contracts at today’s ranges.