Raisin Prices Hold Steady as China Heatwave and Turkish Weather Watch Limit Downside

Raisin prices remain broadly stable with Turkish sultana export values flat and only marginal softening in Chinese-origin material. Extreme heat in China’s Xinjiang raisin belt and seasonally warm but not yet threatening conditions in Malatya are keeping weather risk on the radar, but short‑term supply appears comfortable and prevents any sharp price move. The market is currently driven more by steady export programs than by fresh fundamental shocks. Türkiye continues to dominate sultana trade, with Malatya weather warm and dry but within seasonal norms for early July, supporting grape development ahead of the new crop harvest window. In China’s Turpan region, very high temperatures are reported, raising concerns about sunburn and quality risks for green raisins if the heatwave persists, although no official crop loss estimates have been published in the last few days. With end‑user demand stable and logistics functioning normally, price action over the next few sessions is expected to stay range‑bound.

Prices

Using an indicative EUR/USD rate of 1.10, current spot levels translate into the following approximate prices:

Turkish sultana prices are unchanged from late June, pointing to a balanced spot market and moderate seller confidence ahead of the 2026/27 crop. Chinese-origin sultanas in Europe have eased only fractionally, suggesting adequate availability and limited immediate concern over Xinjiang weather in the pipeline.

Supply & Demand

Türkiye remains a cornerstone of global raisin trade, with recent Turkish media highlighting strong dried fruit export performance in the first half of 2026, underpinned by robust EU and Middle Eastern demand. Despite this, current sultana prices show no sign of tightening, indicating that exporters still hold workable stocks from the 2025 crop and are comfortable offering at steady levels.

On the demand side, wholesale prices for sultanas at major European platforms such as Rungis have been broadly stable through late June and early July, reflecting steady but unspectacular consumption. China, a key producer and consumer, has seen record grain resilience under adverse weather in 2025, suggesting that the broader agri‑food system is managing extreme conditions relatively well, although specialty crops like raisins may face localized quality risks during heat spikes.

Weather & Crop Outlook (TR & CN)

Türkiye (Malatya and surrounding vine areas – proxy for sultanas): Short‑term forecasts for July 10–13 indicate warm, mostly dry conditions with daytime highs in the upper 20s to low 30s °C, low rainfall probabilities and light winds. This is broadly favorable for grape development and drying infrastructure, with no immediate threat from excessive heat or storms. Weather is thus neutral to slightly supportive for maintaining current yield expectations.

China (Turpan, Xinjiang – main raisin belt): Observed data for early July show very high maximum temperatures in Turpan, around the mid‑40s °C on some days, consistent with typical summer extremes but on the upper end of the range. While raisins benefit from hot, dry air for drying, prolonged heatwaves raise the risk of berry sunburn, uneven drying and labor constraints in vineyards and drying facilities. No recent official downgrade of the 2025/26 Chinese raisin crop has been reported within the last three days, so the heatwave is currently a watch factor rather than a confirmed bullish driver.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Global balance still comfortable: Recent industry statistics indicate that for 2025/26, world raisin production and carry‑in stocks keep overall supply ample, even though Türkiye’s crop is projected below the previous season. This moderates upside price risk unless weather damage materializes in one of the large producers.
• Turkey & China as key pillars: The latest global dried fruit overview shows sizable raisin production in Türkiye and China, with China’s output rising, gradually increasing its role as both supplier and competitor in standard sultana grades.
• Macro and trade flows: Broader trade tensions, such as China–Turkey and China–EU disputes, are more focused on manufactured goods and vehicles; there are no new agri‑tariffs on raisins in the last few days. Logistics corridors through Europe and the Middle East remain open, limiting freight‑driven volatility for near‑term shipments.
• Speculative participation: Raisins are largely a physical trade market; there are no signs of new speculative flows affecting prices this week. Price stability across Turkish and Chinese origins supports the view of a fundamentally driven, range‑bound market.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indications

Trading recommendations (short term, 3–7 days):

• Importers / packers: Use current stability to cover near‑term needs in Turkish sultanas (types 8–10). With Malatya weather benign and no clear bullish catalyst, scale‑in buying at present EUR levels appears reasonable.
• Exporters (TR & CN): Maintain offers but remain flexible on small discounts for prompt‑shipment parcels to secure volume before any potential weather headlines emerge from Xinjiang or Turkish vineyards later in July.
• Industrial users in Europe & Asia: Consider modest forward coverage into Q4 2026 for core sultana grades, but avoid aggressive long positions until clearer evidence of crop stress or demand acceleration appears.

3‑day regional price direction (all values indicative, in EUR):

• Türkiye (Malatya, FOB/CIF sultanas): Prices around 1.85–2.70 EUR/kg for main conventional grades and about 2.80+ EUR/kg for organic are expected to stay sideways over the next three days, given stable weather and export demand.
• China (Xinjiang origin, delivered EU, FCA hubs): Chinese standard no.9 RTU sultanas near 1.90–2.00 EUR/kg are likely to remain slightly soft to flat, with only mild downside as long as logistics and existing stocks buffer the impact of current heat.