Raisin Prices Hold Firm as El Niño Concerns Build for Key Origins

Raisin prices across major export origins are broadly stable into mid-July, with only modest gains for higher-grade Indian material and no fresh shocks from Turkey, China, Chile or Afghanistan. Near-term trade remains driven more by steady demand and tight but manageable stocks than by weather news. However, El Niño’s expected strengthening over the coming months could become a key risk factor for the next crop cycle. Spot business is taking place against a backdrop of seasonally high temperatures in all main producing regions but no acute weather event in the past week. India’s New Delhi market shows flat to slightly firmer offers for premium grades, while Turkish and Chinese sultanas in European warehouses continue to trade in a narrow range. For now, buyers face a sideways market with a mild upward bias on top grades, but the balance could shift quickly if El Niño-linked heat or drought hits 2026/27 grape development.

Prices

Indicative export and European warehouse prices converted to EUR (approx. 1 USD = 0.92 EUR):

Wholesale fresh grape prices in Delhi have edged higher in recent days, reflecting seasonal tightness but not yet translating into a sharp move in processed raisins.

Supply & Demand

Recent industry data show that for 2025/26, India, Türkiye, China and Iran remain among the largest raisin and sultana producers, with India and Türkiye both expected to see lower production compared with the previous year, while China’s output is projected higher. Despite this rebalancing, global total supply for 2025/26 is forecast below last season, implying tighter fundamentals if demand holds.

Afghanistan’s raisin production is forecast to increase year-on-year from a low base, providing more feed- and mid-grade material to regional markets. However, ongoing logistical and macroeconomic constraints, including broader food-security challenges, limit how quickly incremental volumes can reach premium export channels.

In India, official market portals for Delhi continue to report active arrivals and updated commodity pricing for agricultural products as of 9 July 2026, suggesting no acute supply disruption at present. Consumer demand in key import markets appears steady, with no fresh information over the past three days indicating a major demand shock.

Weather & Crop Conditions (AF, CL, CN, IN, TR)

Türkiye (TR – Malatya)

Climatological data for Malatya indicate typical hot, dry July conditions with average daily highs around the low 30s °C and very low rainfall. Over the past few days no new local official reports have highlighted extreme heatwaves, storms or hail events specifically impacting vineyards.

China (CN – Xinjiang)

Xinjiang, the core region for Chinese raisins, normally experiences hot, dry summers, with July characterized by high temperatures and limited precipitation. Recent national bulletins focus on broader summer grain outcomes, with no new warning on vine damage in the last three days. Current weather therefore looks seasonally warm but not exceptionally disruptive for raisin grapes.

India (IN)

Indian raisin production is concentrated in states like Maharashtra; while there is no dedicated July 2026 grape bulletin in the last three days, monsoon progression has not triggered any new official alerts concerning vineyard flooding or disease in major producing belts. Combined with stable market operations reported for Delhi, weather is assessed as a neutral near-term factor for existing stock and late-season field work.

Chile (CL)

Chile’s raisin supply is currently driven by fruit already harvested earlier in the year. No fresh weather-related disruptions to dried grape exports have been flagged in international commodity summaries over the past three days. With the crop largely in storage, short-term weather risk to available 2026 flame jumbo supplies is low.

Afghanistan (AF)

Seasonal monitoring for Afghanistan highlights generally below-average precipitation in many regions for the 2025/26 season but with near-average cereal yields and no sudden weather shock reported over the last few days. This pattern suggests sufficient grapevine water stress risks under a warming climate, but nothing acute enough yet to change 2026 raisin supply expectations.

Fundamentals & Risk Factors

• Production balance: Global 2025/26 raisin production is forecast somewhat lower than 2024/25, mainly due to reduced crops in India, Türkiye and Iran, partially offset by higher output in China and some Southern Hemisphere origins.
• Stocks: Ending stocks are projected to fall from 154,000 tonnes in 2024/25 to around 137,000 tonnes in 2025/26, pointing to a gradual tightening if consumption stays stable.
• El Niño risk: Global climate briefings in early July 2026 indicate El Niño is expected to intensify through late 2026, bringing increased probability of heat and drought anomalies in multiple agricultural regions. For raisin producers, this raises medium-term risk for the next grape cycle rather than the current stock.
• Macroeconomic & logistics: Trade-flow risks remain elevated for Afghanistan due to conflict and infrastructure constraints, though this mainly affects lower-grade supply. Other key exporters (Türkiye, China, India, Chile) show no fresh logistics shocks over the last three days.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication

Trading Outlook (next 1–2 weeks)

• Buyers: Consider covering near-term needs in premium sultanas and golden raisins from Türkiye and India while prices are flat and global stocks are modestly tightening. Avoid overstocking ahead of clearer signals on El Niño impacts later in Q3.
• Sellers (IN, TR, CN, CL, AF): Maintain offer discipline on top grades; current fundamentals justify holding close to present levels. For feed and lower grades (Afghanistan, some Indian Malayar), be flexible to capture demand from price-sensitive buyers.
• Risk management: Watch closely for any July–August updates on vineyard conditions in Malatya, Xinjiang and Maharashtra, as early indications of heat or drought stress could quickly add a risk premium to forward prices.

3‑Day Directional Price View (11–13 July 2026)

• India (IN, FOB New Delhi): Golden, brown and black grade AA – sideways to slightly firm (0 to +1%) on stable demand and no new supply shock.
• Türkiye (TR, FOB Malatya / FCA Dordrecht): Sultanas type 8–10 and RTU – stable (0 to +0.5%), with traders monitoring but not yet pricing in additional weather risk.
• China (CN, FCA EU): Sultanas – stable (0%), as higher forecast production is already reflected in current values.
• Chile (CL, FCA EU): Flame jumbo – stable (0%), given secure warehouse stocks.
• Afghanistan (AF, feed grade, FCA EU): Stable to slightly soft (0 to –0.5%) amid adequate availability and price-sensitive demand.