Indian Raisins Edge Higher as Monsoon Rains Slow Near-Term Upside

Indian raisin prices are slightly firmer but broadly range-bound, with New Delhi export offers for Grade AA golden and black holding their recent gains while feed-grade Malayar and brown types trade in a narrow band. Heavy monsoon showers in Maharashtra are not yet disrupting supply, but they are reinforcing expectations of a smaller 2025/26 dried grape crop versus last season, which underpins current values. Spot business remains selective, with buyers cautious amid comfortable global stocks and competitive Turkish and Chinese sultana offers into Europe. Domestic grape prices in Maharashtra are steady to mildly elevated for this time of year, suggesting growers still have pricing power but not enough to trigger a sharp rally in raisins. In the very short term, monsoon-related logistics risks argue for a slightly firmer bias in Indian export parity, but the broader global surplus caps upside.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR at an indicative 1 EUR = 90 INR and 1 EUR = 1.08 USD; figures rounded.

Wholesale blond raisin prices around 5.66 EUR/kg at Rungis underline the margin room for Indian and Turkish exporters, whose FOB offers remain less than half of key EU wholesale levels.

Supply & Demand

Recent industry analysis points to a still-comfortable global dried grape balance in 2025/26, with India, Turkey, Iran and the US all contributing sizeable supplies despite some production normalization after previous bumper crops. A fresh India-focused market update from early July notes that domestic raisin prices are broadly steady to slightly firm as monsoon rains intensify, with traders highlighting the drag from ample global stocks on any sustained rally.

In India, current mandi prices for fresh grapes are stable to moderately elevated, with Maharashtra reporting around 12,500 INR/quintal in Pune APMC on 5 July 2026, reflecting ongoing demand for table fruit and processing. This level neither forces distress selling into drying nor encourages aggressive stock retention, supporting a balanced pipeline from fresh grapes to raisins.

On the demand side, EU and UK dried-fruit imports remain solid in value terms, supported by steady snack and bakery usage, even as overall agri-food import volumes have cooled. However, buyers are price-sensitive and continue to leverage competition between Turkish sultanas, Chinese product and Indian raisins, limiting the ability of any single origin to push through significant price increases.

Weather & Crop Conditions (India)

Nashik and Sangli, the core raisin-producing districts in Maharashtra, are experiencing active southwest monsoon conditions. Nashik is under an orange alert for heavy rainfall on 7 July, with forecasts calling for rain and thunderstorms over the next 48 hours before turning breezy and cloudy. Sangli is also forecast to see cloudy, windy conditions with scattered thunderstorms through 9 July.

These rains are seasonally typical and, at present, more a logistics issue than a crop-damage story, as most of the 2025/26 dried-grape raw material is already produced and stored. A recent regional report from Nashik highlights broader monsoon-linked activities but does not point to acute agricultural stress, supporting the view that current showers are manageable for the existing stockholding and drying infrastructure.

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

Global fundamentals remain mildly bearish for the medium term: the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council projects total world raisin/sultana/currant supply in 2025/26 at over 1.3 million tonnes, only modestly below last season and still historically high. This overhang, combined with recovering Turkish export capability and consistent Chinese shipments into Europe, weighs on aggressive upside for Indian origin.

At the same time, near-term Indian export offers have been supported by: (1) limited farmer selling at current monsoon-season liquidity needs; (2) stable domestic demand signalled by steady e‑commerce pricing for consumer packs; and (3) adequate but not burdensome stock levels in key producing districts. An early July India market brief notes that traders perceive only a narrow window for price spikes before the weight of global supply reasserts itself.

3–10 Day Outlook & Trading View

Over the coming week, continued showers in Maharashtra may slow truck movements and warehouse operations at the margin, providing modest support to Indian FOB/FCA offers, especially for higher-quality golden and black AA grades. However, with no major crop damage reported and robust alternative supply from Turkey and China, international buyers are likely to resist any sharp price increases, particularly for standard sultana-equivalent qualities.

Trading recommendations (short term)

• Importers in EU/UK: Use current flat-to-firm Indian offers to top up nearby coverage, but avoid chasing prices higher; stagger purchases over the next 4–6 weeks to benefit from global supply competition.
• Indian packers/exporters: Maintain offer discipline on golden AA and premium black, but be prepared to negotiate on brown and feed grades to protect throughput amid strong competition from Turkish and Chinese sultanas.
• Large buyers in MENA/Asia: Consider blending strategies (mixing Indian and Turkish/Chinese origin) to optimize landed cost while preserving quality, given the wide gap between FOB levels and EU wholesale prices.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)