Raisins Market: Strong Turkish Crop Meets Rising Cost Pressures

Expectations of a larger Turkish raisin crop and strong export performance are keeping the market fundamentally well supplied, but high on-farm costs and possible state intervention are likely to prevent any sharp price declines in the new season. The raisins market enters the second half of 2026 with Turkey firmly in the lead on exports and with growers expecting a bigger grape harvest than last year. Hot, dry weather in June and early July has improved sugar content and overall quality, while also pushing irrigation costs higher. Domestic raw material prices in Turkey currently range around 85–90 TRY, and producers are signaling that they expect higher prices for the new season. Against this backdrop, stable export quotations and strong state-support rhetoric suggest an upside bias rather than aggressive discounting.

Prices

Spot and offer prices suggest a broadly steady international raisins market with a mild upward bias for higher qualities and origins with strong demand.

Note: Prices converted from USD to EUR at an indicative rate of 1 USD = 0.92 EUR for comparability.

Over the past three weeks, Turkish FOB offers for standard sultana grades have been broadly stable in USD terms, translating into only minor EUR fluctuations. Chinese and Indian offers show similarly flat patterns with marginal upticks in some grades, indicating that the market is not under acute supply stress and that buyers have no urgency to chase prices higher.

Supply & Demand

Sector representatives in Turkey expect this year’s grape harvest to exceed last season’s volume, reinforcing Turkey’s role as the key global supplier. Strong official export data for January–June 2026, with revenues of around USD 752 million and the Aegean region again leading, confirm robust external demand and a solid export pipeline.

Hot and dry conditions in June and early July, combined with intensified irrigation, have improved raisin quality by raising sugar content and enhancing appearance. This is likely to support demand for Turkish product in premium segments, including bakery, confectionery and retail packing, where quality differentials translate quickly into pricing power.

On the producer side, rising input costs – especially for water, energy and labor – are weighing on farm margins. Growers emphasize the critical importance of state support to offset these pressures, and there is a clear expectation that public agencies will backstop prices if needed to prevent producer losses, limiting downside risk on farmgate and raw material prices.

Fundamentals & Policy

Domestic raw material prices in Turkey currently cluster around 85–90 TRY, and market participants generally expect higher levels in the new season as harvest prospects firm. This reflects a combination of increased production costs, quality improvements and confidence in export demand rather than outright scarcity.

Recent discussions in the sector recall official assurances that producers will not be harmed, with expectations that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) will step in promptly if prices weaken excessively. This anticipated intervention mechanism acts as a floor under farmgate and, by extension, export prices, anchoring expectations for a relatively firm new-crop opening despite comfortable supply.

Weather Outlook

In key Turkish grape-growing areas such as Manisa, the short-term forecast points to continued hot, mostly sunny conditions with daytime highs frequently in the mid-30s °C over the coming week.

These conditions are broadly favorable for further sugar accumulation and ripening but will maintain strong irrigation demand, reinforcing upward pressure on production costs. Weather-related supply risks appear limited for now, but sustained heat could increase quality differentiation between well-irrigated vineyards and those facing water or capital constraints.

Trading Outlook

• Short-term buyers: Use current price stability to secure nearby coverage, especially for higher-grade Turkish sultanas where quality premiums are likely to widen at new-crop opening.
• Industrial users (EU/UK): Consider diversifying origins (Turkey, India, China) for standard grades, but maintain a core Turkish position for quality-sensitive applications, as Turkish product looks competitively priced for its quality.
• Producers and exporters: Monitor TMO policy signals closely; any formal intervention announcement could harden price ideas and trigger earlier forward buying from importers.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• Turkey (Malatya, sultanas FOB, EUR): Sideways to slightly firm as expectations for higher new-season raw material prices underpin offers.
• EU (NL/DE FCA, mixed origins, EUR): Mostly stable; small upside risk for premium Turkish lots as buyers begin to position for new crop.
• India (New Delhi FOB, EUR): Stable with a mild upward bias in golden and value-added grades on steady export interest.