Raisin Prices Hold Steady as Heat Builds in Key Origins

Raisin prices across key export origins are broadly stable at the start of July, with Turkish and Chilean offers flat and only minor upward moves in Chinese and Afghan parcels. Near‑term upside risks stem more from intensifying heat in Turkey and Xinjiang than from immediate supply shortages. Physical trading remains thin in early July, with most buyers covered short term and watching new‑crop signals from Turkey, China and Chile. Turkish sultana offers ex‑Malatya are steady in EUR terms, reflecting expectations of a much larger 2026/27 crop after last season’s weather‑reduced harvest, while Chinese and Afghan supply is supported by normal seasonal development of vineyards in Xinjiang and Afghanistan. Short‑term heatwaves in Turkey and western China bear monitoring, but they are impacting mainly vegetative growth rather than the drying season. For now, European FCA prices for standard grades are in a sideways pattern.

Prices

Indicative EUR prices (converted from recent offers and market levels) show a stable structure across main origins and grades:

The spread between Turkish FOB Malatya and EU FCA Turkish sultanas remains consistent, indicating stable freight and handling costs. Premiums for organic Turkish product are unchanged.

Supply & Demand

On fundamentals, preliminary 2026/27 world raisin and sultana production is projected around 1.44 million t, up on last season, with key growth from Turkey and a strong rebound in Afghanistan’s small but export‑oriented crop. After a frost‑hit 2025 Turkish crop, brokers now expect Turkey to recover toward ~290 000 t in 2026/27, sharply easing the tightness seen earlier this year.

China’s Xinjiang region, particularly Turpan and Grape Valley, continues to underpin global supply, accounting for the majority of Chinese raisin output and a key share of world green raisins. Chilean and South African crops are described as normal‑to‑slightly higher for 2025/26, providing comfortable availability of flame and Thompson‑type raisins into Europe. Demand side, EU snack and bakery sectors are steady; no major demand shock has emerged in the last week, so price discovery is dominated by origin weather and expectations for new‑season offers from Turkey and China.

Weather Watch – AF, CL, CN, TR

Türkiye (TR)

Turkey’s meteorological service warns of above‑normal temperatures across much of the country on Friday 3 July 2026, with a heatwave affecting around 20 provinces, including parts of Central and Eastern Anatolia. In Malatya, a core sultana region, typical July maximums are around the low‑30s °C with limited rainfall. The current hot, dry pattern is supportive for vine development and later drying, but prolonged extreme heat could stress vines on shallow soils.

China – Xinjiang (CN)

Xinjiang is entering the hottest part of the season. A 30‑day forecast for Urumqi, representative of northern Xinjiang, shows many days with highs in the low‑to‑mid 30s °C through mid‑July. Turpan, the main raisin hub, is already experiencing very hot, arid summer conditions typical for July, with current observations in the high‑30s °C to low‑40s °C and very low humidity. This favors healthy grape growth and later drying, provided irrigation remains adequate.

Chile (CL)

Chile is in mid‑winter. Recent agrometeorological bulletins point to cool, wet conditions in central valleys, with adequate soil moisture following seasonal rains and no acute frost or flood damage reported on vines in the last week. For raisins, this phase is largely dormant; current weather is neutral‑to‑slightly positive for the 2026 harvest outlook.

Afghanistan (AF)

Afghanistan’s main raisin belts (e.g. around Kabul and northern valleys) are in their warm, dry summer pattern, broadly similar to neighboring Central Asia, with hot days and low rainfall – conditions generally favorable for grape development and future sun‑drying. While detailed national weather bulletins over the last three days are limited, no major disruptive events (large‑scale floods or severe storms) have been reported in international coverage, so supply expectations remain aligned with the latest forecast of a moderate production increase for 2025/26.

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

Recent industry data suggest 2025/26 world raisin supply of about 1.31 million t against similar‑scale consumption, leaving relatively tight but manageable carry‑out stocks. China, Turkey, Iran, India and the USA remain the main suppliers, with Afghanistan’s contribution growing from roughly 12 000 t to an expected 20 000 t, largely serving regional demand but also some exports into the Middle East and Europe.

For EU buyers, Turkey and China are the key origin pair. Turkish sultanas retain a quality premium, but Chinese sultanas into Hamburg and Rotterdam have narrowed the discount over the last weeks, reflecting firm internal prices and logistics costs. Chilean flame and jumbo types are stable, mainly benefiting snack and breakfast mixes. With no new trade restrictions or sanctions affecting these four origins in the last three days, shipping routes and costs remain the usual driver of regional basis differences.

3–7 Day Market & Trading Outlook

• Türkiye (TR): Hot, dry conditions and expectations of a larger 2026/27 crop argue for stable to slightly softer forward sentiment, but spot FOB Malatya prices are likely to remain in a tight range near current EUR levels over the next week.
• China (CN): Very hot Xinjiang weather supports good drying prospects later; near‑term EU FCA prices for Chinese sultanas should stay firm‑sideways, with limited downside as buyers diversify away from Turkey.
• Chile (CL): Winter dormancy and normal vineyard conditions suggest no price shock; EU FCA Chilean flame jumbos are expected to trade sideways, with any movement driven by FX and freight rather than fundamentals.
• Afghanistan (AF): With improving crop expectations and no fresh weather shocks, Afghan feed‑grade raisins in Europe are likely to hold just below or around EUR 2.00/kg FCA, remaining the discount origin for industrial users.

Trading Recommendations (short term)

• EU buyers: Consider incremental coverage in Chinese and Afghan origins to lock in current flat prices ahead of any logistics‑driven Q3 volatility.
• Importers with Turkish exposure: Avoid chasing the market higher; use current stability to roll nearby coverage while monitoring Turkish heatwave duration and any early crop‑condition updates.
• Producers/exporters (TR, CN, AF, CL): Maintain offer discipline; with stocks balanced and no immediate demand surge, aggressive discounting is not yet justified.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (EUR)

• Türkiye (TR) – Malatya FOB sultanas: 0–1% range‑bound; bias neutral.
• China (CN) – Xinjiang/Hamburg FCA sultanas: 0–1% higher; mild firming on steady demand and hot weather narrative.
• Chile (CL) – EU FCA flame jumbo: Flat; no fresh fundamental triggers.
• Afghanistan (AF) – EU FCA industrial/feed raisins: Flat; supply expectations adequate and demand price‑sensitive.