Chinese Raisins Edge Higher as Hot, Dry Xinjiang Supports Firm EU Demand

Chinese raisin prices are drifting higher on steady EU demand and very hot, dry conditions in Xinjiang that favour drying but keep quality risks in focus. Indian and Turkish offers are broadly stable to slightly firmer, giving Chinese origin a modest competitive edge into continental Europe in the very short term. Chinese standard sultana raisins delivered FCA Hamburg are trading slightly higher week-on-week in EUR terms, reflecting firmer buying interest from EU snack and bakery users and limited nearby availability. In Xinjiang’s Turpan area, very hot, mostly dry weather continues into early July, providing excellent drying conditions but leaving growers cautious about heat stress around veraison. Short term, this combination of good drying weather in China and ongoing monsoon conditions in India points to stable-to-firm global raisin values rather than any sharp correction.

Prices

Across key export points, raisin prices in EUR are modestly firmer versus mid-June. Chinese sultanas for EU (FCA Hamburg) have nudged higher, while Indian and Turkish benchmarks are holding a slightly higher plateau in local currency, translating into steady-to-firm levels in EUR.

Relative to Turkey, Chinese standard sultanas into Europe are trading at a discount of roughly 0.70–0.80 EUR/kg, leaving room for further Chinese share gains in value-sensitive channels if quality remains consistent.

Supply & Demand

China remains a central driver of global raisin balance, with Turpan in Xinjiang alone accounting for more than 80% of national raisin output and making China the world’s largest producer of green raisins. Recent USDA analysis confirms Turpan’s dominance and notes that production in marketing year 2024/25 was already affected by earlier heat during flowering, underlining sensitivity to temperature extremes.

On the demand side, EU snack and bakery sectors are currently drawing steadily but without signs of panic buying. The modest week-on-week firming in EU-delivered Chinese sultanas suggests buyers are gently covering Q3 needs rather than aggressively extending coverage for the new crop, with many still watching how Xinjiang’s summer weather develops and how Turkish new-crop pricing will open.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Focus: Xinjiang, CN)

Short-term weather in Turpan, Xinjiang, is very hot and predominantly dry, with extended forecasts around July 1–3, 2026 showing daytime highs in the mid- to upper-30s °C and very low rainfall probabilities. Historical and climatic data confirm that July is typically the hottest month in this basin, frequently reaching or exceeding 40°C.

For raisin production, this pattern is broadly favourable for rapid drying and low mould pressure, especially once grapes are in raisin sheds or drying yards. However, if extreme heat persists into the sensitive berry-development stage, it may stress vines and slightly reduce yield or sizing, a risk highlighted by USDA’s previous note that high temperatures have already constrained recent crops. At this stage, there are no fresh reports of acute weather damage to grapes in Turpan within the last three days.

In India’s Maharashtra raisin belt (Sangli–Tasgaon, Solapur), southwest monsoon conditions are established, with recent local forecasts for Solapur showing typical monsoon patterns—high humidity, warm temperatures and intermittent to moderate rainfall. This favours vine growth on 2026/27 grapes but can complicate on-ground drying, keeping supply-side risk premia slightly elevated for open-yard raisin operations.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• China’s structural role: Industry data and recent USDA reporting keep China’s raisin output in a high range, with Turpan dominating production. Even with some prior heat-related stress, no sharp contraction is signalled for the coming marketing year.
• Turkey as price anchor: Turkish sultana offers, particularly from Manisa-region growers, remain the global benchmark; recent climate analyses highlight the region’s typically hot, dry June, which supports drying but also underscores vulnerability to heat waves and hail. With no new shock news in the past three days, these FOB levels are effectively acting as a ceiling for Chinese quotes.
• Logistics & currency: No major freight disruptions or port issues have emerged in recent days on China–EU or India–EU corridors. Combined with relatively stable FX over late June, this keeps EUR-denominated raisin quotes closely tied to origin-side price movements rather than freight or currency shocks.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Near-term price bias: With hot, dry weather in Xinjiang and monsoon uncertainty in India but no acute crop damage reported in the last three days, the 1–3 week bias is sideways to slightly firmer for Chinese and Indian raisins in EUR terms.
• Buyers (EU snack, bakery, cereal): Consider securing a portion of Q3–early Q4 needs now in Chinese sultanas while the discount to Turkish product remains wide. Maintain some flexibility for potential Turkish new-crop softness, but avoid being under-covered if Xinjiang heat intensifies.
• Sellers (Chinese packers, traders): Use current firmness to lock in forward sales at modest carry. Monitor any escalation in Turpan heat or localised storms, as confirmed damage headlines could justify small incremental price increases.
• Risk watch: Key near-term risk is a sequence of extreme-heat days during berry development in Xinjiang, which would tighten quality supply and support higher premiums for well-graded lots.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• EU (Hamburg/Dordrecht, CN sultanas, FCA): Tone firm; prices expected to trade in a narrow +0.01–0.02 EUR/kg band over the next three days, with upside bias if fresh buying emerges.
• Turkey (FOB sultanas): Largely stable; no strong catalysts for immediate EUR price moves in the next three days.
• India (FOB New Delhi raisins): Stable to marginally firmer; monsoon-related drying risks may keep sellers reluctant to discount in the very short term.