Raisins Market Faces Big Crop Expectations but Sticky Prices

Producers and exporters are entering the new raisin season with expectations of a strong crop but limited downside in prices, as higher production costs anchor target levels around EUR 4.60/kg equivalent ex-works. After early-season damage from heavy rain and hail, warmer weather and better orchard management have restored confidence in the coming harvest. Market participants anticipate abundant supply, yet producers are unwilling to concede on prices given cost inflation. Export activity is robust, with late-June weekly shipments running ahead of last year. Spot offers in key origins such as Türkiye, India and China have been largely stable to slightly firmer in June, suggesting that any harvest-related price pressure could be offset by firm grower price ideas and steady demand from processors and packers.

Prices

Producers in key origin regions signal target levels around USD 5/kg for new-crop raisins, driven mainly by higher input, labor and financing costs rather than scarcity. At an indicative EUR/USD of about 1.09, this corresponds to roughly EUR 4.60/kg at origin, implying a noticeable premium over current export offers.

Spot export quotations, however, remain significantly lower. Turkish sultanas from Malatya are currently indicated around EUR 2.03–2.95/kg FOB depending on type, with organic product around EUR 3.10/kg FOB. CIF offers for ready-to-use Turkish sultanas type 9 into Europe sit near EUR 2.13/kg. Chinese sultanas type 9 RTU grade standard into North Europe are around EUR 2.11/kg FCA, while Indian raisins range roughly between EUR 1.88 and 2.60/kg FOB/FCA depending on color and grade.

Supply & Demand

This season’s crop faced heavy rains and hail, which caused localized damage and initially raised concerns about volume and quality. However, the subsequent warm weather from the beginning of summer and increased crop management awareness among growers have significantly improved the outlook. Both producers and exporters are now broadly optimistic about the new harvest, expecting an abundant crop despite the early-season setbacks.

On the demand side, weekly exports as of 27 June reached about 2,920 tons, roughly 400 tons higher than the same week last year. This suggests healthy international demand ahead of the new season, as buyers secure coverage before the main harvest pressure. Historically, when harvests are large, export volumes can rise while unit prices come under pressure. This year, however, the willingness of producers to hold out for higher prices may moderate typical harvest-time price declines.

Fundamentals & Costs

Fundamentally, the market is heading into a classic "large crop versus high cost" standoff. Abundant supply would normally imply softer prices, but producers point to sharply higher costs for labor, packaging, energy and finance as justification for targeting around USD 5/kg. This indicates a clear gap between grower price ideas and current export offers around EUR 2–3/kg, with organic segments already closer to cost-based ambitions.

Inventory behavior will be crucial. If exporters and packers perceive that growers can finance and store product, they may anticipate less aggressive selling pressure at harvest and prepare for a flatter price curve. Conversely, any liquidity stress in the grower segment could quickly translate into heavier selling and a temporary dip below desired price levels before the market rebalances.

Weather & Short-Term Outlook

Weather in the main producing regions has transitioned from problematic to broadly supportive. Early-season storms have given way to warmer, drier conditions that favor ripening and drying, limiting further damage and supporting quality recovery. Continued stable summer weather will be key to maintaining the positive yield expectations now embedded in the market.

Looking ahead to mid-August, when final price indications are expected, the market will closely track field reports on berry size, sugar levels and damage incidence. Any renewed adverse weather—especially during the critical drying period—could tighten the balance sheet and give producers stronger leverage to defend their higher price targets.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers: Use current stable FOB/CIF levels in the EUR 2.0–3.0/kg range to secure partial forward coverage before mid-August, when final pricing could move closer to producers’ higher cost-based targets.
• Producers: Given the combination of good crop prospects and strong cost pressure, consider disciplined selling strategies, staggered offers and quality differentiation (e.g. organic, RTU) to justify price premiums.
• Traders: Watch export flows and harvest progress closely; strong weekly exports and benign weather favor a carry-friendly market, but any weather shock or logistics bottleneck could quickly flip sentiment.

3-Day Price Indication (Directional)

• Türkiye – Malatya, FOB/CIF raisins: Sideways; prices expected to hold near current EUR 2.0–3.1/kg range pending clearer harvest and price guidance.
• EU – North Europe FCA stock (TR/CN origins): Slightly firm bias on logistics and freight costs, but major moves unlikely in the next three days.
• India – FOB/FCA raisins: Mildly supportive tone; stable to slightly higher EUR prices as local costs and currency dynamics feed into offers.