Raisin prices edge higher on firm Indian and Turkish markets

Indian and Turkish raisin prices are edging higher in late June, supported by steady export demand and localized weather risks in China’s Xinjiang. European wholesale values remain elevated in euro terms, leaving limited downside in the near term. Across key origins, price momentum is modest but broadly positive, with India and Chile competitive against a still-firm Turkish sultana market. Recent extreme rainfall in parts of Xinjiang and early-summer heat across Eurasia are raising quality and logistics questions but have not yet triggered a clear supply shock. For now, buyers face a gently rising market rather than a sharp rally, with currency moves and freight costs adding to the upside bias.

Prices

All prices converted to approximate EUR at 1 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR.

Indian domestic APMC prices in Sangli for dry grapes are reported around ₹27,100/quintal modal (≈3.0–3.1 EUR/kg) as of 18 June, underscoring a firm internal market that supports export parity at current FOB/FCA levels. French wholesale prices for brown dried grapes near Paris are indicated around 6.30 EUR/kg in late June, highlighting strong downstream margins and room for origin prices to remain supported.

Supply & Demand

Medium-term fundamentals remain tight but not extreme. Recent global forecasts from the international nut and dried fruit industry show 2025/26 raisin production easing versus 2024/25 in India and Türkiye, while China and Chile edge higher, leaving world supply slightly lower year on year. Carry-in stocks from previous crops keep overall availability adequate but limit the potential for deep price corrections.

In India, Sangli and Nashik continue to act as the main hubs for raisin production and export logistics, with strong processing capacity and year-round availability. Local traders report steady inquiries from the Middle East and Asia, while the domestic retail and bakery sectors remain resilient. Globally, demand growth is modest but stable, with industrial users (cereals, bakery, confectionery) more price-sensitive yet still locked into raisins as a key ingredient.

Türkiye remains the benchmark origin for seedless sultanas, with recent spot indications from the Izmir commodity exchange pointing to firm but largely sideways prices in late June. China’s Xinjiang region, a major sultana-producing area, has adequate stocks from previous seasons, but buyers are monitoring the 2026 crop after unusual weather. Chilean exporters, particularly from northern regions, continue to promote high-quality flame and Thompson-type raisins into Europe and Asia, capitalizing on counter-seasonal supply.

Weather & Crop Conditions (AF, CL, CN, IN, TR)

China (CN/Xinjiang): In the past week, Hotan in Xinjiang experienced record-setting rainfall on 20 June, with daily and hourly precipitation records broken, an unusual event for this desert region. While vineyards are mostly in more sheltered oases, such extremes raise concerns about localized flooding, berry splitting and disease pressure later in the season if wet conditions persist. For now, the event is seen as a localized risk rather than a national supply shock.

India (IN): Key grape and raisin belts in Maharashtra (Nashik, Sangli, Tasgaon) are transitioning from dry heat into the early monsoon window. No major weather damage has been reported in the last few days, and arrivals in Sangli APMC remain sufficient to keep the market liquid, though tight power and labor conditions in peak drying and storage seasons can still nudge costs higher.

Türkiye (TR): Western Turkish sultana areas around Manisa and İzmir are entering a warm, generally dry early summer typical for vine development. Recent climate summaries for the broader Eastern Mediterranean highlight a trend toward more frequent heatwaves, which can accelerate sugar buildup but also stress vines and affect berry size if not managed with irrigation. So far, no acute weather shock has been reported in the last three days for sultana areas.

Chile (CL): Northern Chilean grape-growing regions are in the southern hemisphere winter dormancy phase. Recent industry communications emphasize standard post-harvest management rather than any major weather anomaly; current focus is on marketing stored raisins from the last harvest.

Afghanistan (AF): Afghanistan’s raisin sector is structurally small but growing, with 2025/26 production projected around 20,000 tonnes, up notably from the previous season. Weather over the last few days has not generated international headlines; the main concerns remain infrastructure and trade facilitation rather than immediate climate shocks.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stocks vs. new crop: Comfortable carryover stocks in Türkiye, India and the USA are cushioning the market, but lower fresh production in some origins for 2025/26 reduces surplus and supports a mild upward price drift.
• Energy, freight and FX: Higher transport and energy costs, combined with weaker local currencies in some producing countries, encourage exporters to hold offers steady to higher in EUR terms, especially into Europe where spot dried grape prices remain elevated.
• Weather volatility: Isolated extreme events, notably the recent Xinjiang downpour, are reminders of climate risk and keep risk premia embedded in forward negotiations, particularly for Chinese and Central Asian origins.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Strategy

• Buyers (importers, packers): Consider covering a portion of Q3–Q4 2026 needs now, especially for Indian black and golden AA and Chilean flame jumbo, where current EUR/kg levels remain competitive versus Turkish and EU wholesale benchmarks. Stagger purchases to manage potential weather-driven volatility in Xinjiang and the Mediterranean.
• Producers/exporters: With European brown raisin prices around 6.30 EUR/kg and origin offers much lower, there is room to defend or slightly increase offer levels, particularly for higher grades and organic lines. Focus on quality assurance and timely shipment to capture premiums.
• Industrial users: Lock in volume-based contracts where possible, but maintain some flexibility on origin. Substituting between Indian, Chinese and Chilean raisins can mitigate any localized supply disruptions and cap input costs.

3‑Day Price Indication (Direction, all in EUR)

• India (IN, FOB/FCA New Delhi): Mildly firm bias over the next three days as domestic Sangli prices and export interest stay supportive; expect ±1–2% moves at most in EUR terms.
• Türkiye (TR, FOB Malatya / Izmir spot): Largely stable but with an upward tilt on high-quality sultanas amid steady export demand; short-term moves likely within a narrow ±1% band.
• China (CN, Xinjiang – EU FCA): Slight upside risk as buyers reassess Xinjiang weather impacts; prices to European warehouses may edge up 1–2% if logistics tighten.
• Chile (CL, EU FCA): Stable to slightly firmer given solid demand for flame/Thompson raisins and limited immediate new supply in the southern hemisphere winter.
• Afghanistan (AF, EU FCA feed grades): Mostly steady with a mild firm tone, tracking broader low-grade dried fruit and feed markets rather than specific crop news.