Chinese Raisins Edge Higher as Buyers Test Summer Demand

Chinese raisin prices are edging higher in late June, supported by steady export interest and broadly favourable weather in key grape regions. The move remains moderate, with China still competitively priced against Turkish and Indian origins. Raisin markets are currently marked by calm but firm undertones. Chinese sultanas have gained slightly over the past week, while Indian prices are flat and Turkish offers hold a premium. Weather in Xinjiang and other Chinese grape belts has been seasonally warm to hot without major stress signals, allowing participants to focus more on trade flows than on crop risk. Globally, sultanas remain well supplied, but strong demand for prompt shipments out of Turkey underpins an overall floor under prices, indirectly lending support to Chinese offers.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR/kg (approx. 1 EUR = 1.08 USD; 1 EUR = 90 INR; rounded).

In India’s Maharashtra, average wholesale dry grape prices are reported around INR 20,701 per quintal (≈ 2.56 EUR/kg), in line with the indicated ex-Delhi levels and confirming a broadly steady Indian market.

Supply & Demand Drivers

• China: Overall agricultural prices are expected to remain broadly stable this year, with many commodities, including dried fruit, projected to hold steady before rising later in the year. Raisins are aligning with this pattern: modest firmness rather than sharp moves.
• Turkey: Turkey remains the central player in sultana exports and continues to account for roughly one-third of global sultana production, commanding a significant share of export volumes. Recent reports indicate higher demand for prompt sultana shipments, supported by decent export figures and generally favourable vineyard conditions in Manisa.
• India: Firm wholesale dry grape prices in Maharashtra support stable export offers. With no major weather or policy shocks reported in the past few days, Indian supply acts as a price anchor for the global raisin complex.
• China domestic fruit prices: Recent wholesale fruit data from northern China show healthy price levels for fresh grapes and related fruits, indicating solid end‑user purchasing power and a generally firm fruit complex, which indirectly supports dried fruit values.

Weather & Crop Conditions (China Focus)

Current raisin‑relevant weather in China is seasonally warm to hot. Northern and north‑western regions have recently experienced mainly dry to moderately rainy conditions, while eastern coastal cities are in the typical early summer hot and humid pattern. Recent accounts from travelers and local observers describe June conditions in much of eastern China as hot, with intermittent showers rather than prolonged heavy rain.

For key grape‑growing inland regions, June 2026 historical data point to warm days and limited extreme rainfall so far, with no widespread reports of damaging storms or floods in the last three days. This suggests normal vine development at this stage. With harvest still some weeks away in major raisin regions, current weather is mildly supportive, but markets will continue to monitor any heat spikes or late‑season rains that could affect berry quality and drying.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

• Global balance: Latest global market assessments see the sultana/raisin sector on a moderate growth path, with Turkey, Iran and the US as key anchors. Turkey alone is estimated to provide about 32% of global sultana output and nearly half of export volumes, reinforcing its benchmark role for world pricing.
• Turkey short‑term dynamics: Rain in Manisa last weekend did not materially harm the crop and is followed by a mostly dry week with daytime temperatures around the low‑30s °C, broadly favourable for vine health. While not a direct driver for Chinese prices, this reduces immediate upside risk from supply fears.
• Macro backdrop China: Broader Chinese agricultural commodity outlooks point to stable prices with some upside later this year as domestic demand gradually improves and certain inventories normalize. Raisins fit into this narrative as a niche but responsive segment.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication

Trading Outlook (next 1–2 weeks)

• Chinese origin: With FCA Hamburg sultanas around 1.95 EUR/kg and Dutch FCA offers close to 1.99 EUR/kg, Chinese raisins remain attractively priced against Turkish CIF and Indian AA grades. Upside in the very near term looks limited but bias stays mildly firm on the back of stable global demand.
• Turkish origin: Strong prompt shipment interest and Turkey’s benchmark role suggest little room for discounts from current ≈ 2.03 EUR/kg CIF levels in the short run. Buyers seeking diversification may look more closely at Chinese and Indian alternatives.
• Indian origin: With farm‑level and mandi prices steady, exporters show little incentive to cut offers. Indian raisins should continue to provide a price floor for darker types and a ceiling for Chinese sultanas if demand softens.

3‑Day Directional Price View (all in EUR/kg)

• China sultanas, type 9, RTU, FCA Hamburg: ~1.95; expected steady to +0.5% over the next 3 days amid balanced demand and calm FX.
• China sultanas, grade AA, FCA Dordrecht: ~1.99; expected steady, with any moves likely driven by freight or small lot buying rather than fundamentals.
• Turkey sultanas, type 9, CIF Malatya equivalent to EU: ~2.03; expected steady as current export programs and favourable weather reduce volatility.
• India raisins, golden AA, FCA New Delhi: ~2.58; expected steady, tracking stable Maharashtra dry grape mandi prices.

Overall, the Chinese raisin market enters late June on a mildly firm but well‑supplied footing, with near‑term price risk skewed slightly to the upside if global dried fruit demand continues to improve into the summer.